Nasdaq 100 Futures Rebound After 6.36% Rout, Worst Since 2020

Lead

Nasdaq 100 futures pointed to a +359-point open on Friday morning, one session after the index fell 6.36% — its worst single day since March 2020. The broader damage was just as severe: the Dow lost 3.4%, the S&P 500 fell 4.36%, and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 5.52%. The early bid is uneven, with Dow futures down 570 points and S&P 500 futures up 11 points at 8:00 a.m. ET, leaving the bounce a mixed signal ahead of the 8:30 a.m. ET US and Canadian jobs reports.

Context — why the jobs report matters more than the bounce

The selloff was not confined to US equities. Germany's DAX fell 2.21%, the UK's FTSE 100 dropped 2.05%, France's CAC 40 slid 1.63%, Spain's IBEX 35 declined 1.27%, and Italy's FTSE MIB lost 1.06%. The tech rout also carried into Asian trading, so the weakness is global rather than a single-market repricing.

Treasury yields are higher across the curve. The 2-year sits at 4.491%, up 1.37 basis points; the 5-year at 4.629%, up 2.09 bps; the 10-year at 4.864%, up 2.65 bps; and the 30-year at 5.284%, up 3.26 bps. The 10-year is well off the 5.36% high reached a few weeks ago, and the bounce today is showing some constraint on the downside.

The dollar has gained the most against the NZD (+0.82%) and AUD (+0.75%). It is also higher against the JPY (+0.40%), EUR (+0.39%), GBP (+0.37%), CAD (+0.30%) and CHF (+0.22%), with the Swiss franc holding up best against the greenback.

That combination — firmer yields, a stronger dollar, and a tentative equity bounce — is the setup payrolls will test. A payroll beat with softer wages could move yields differently than a beat with hotter earnings, and that distinction matters for both the dollar and a Nasdaq trying to recover.

Data — what the numbers show

The US October report is expected to show nonfarm payrolls rising 65K after 29K, with private payrolls at +64K after +46K and manufacturing payrolls at +5K after +9K. Unemployment is forecast to hold at 4.2%. Average hourly earnings are expected to rise 0.3% on the month after 0.1%, with annual growth easing to 2.9% from 3.0%. The average workweek is expected to hold at 34.4 hours.

Canada's report is expected to show employment rising 13.6K after a 68.3K decline, with unemployment holding at 6.5%. Last month's losses were split between full-time jobs (−35.4K) and part-time jobs (−32.9K).

Currency ranges have already stretched past normal. EURUSD traded 1.1168–1.1234, or 105% of its 22-day average. USDJPY ran 157.26–158.37, or 129% of average. GBPUSD covered 1.3382–1.3463, or 116%. AUDUSD stretched to 161% of average, NZDUSD to 141%, USDCAD to 111%, and USDCHF to 77%.

Asset	Move
Nasdaq 100	−6.36%
Nasdaq Composite	−5.52%
S&P 500	−4.36%
Dow	−3.4%
10-year yield	4.864%, +2.65 bps

Analysis — what it means for markets and sectors

The split open tells the story: futures are pricing a tech rebound but not a broad recovery. Dow futures down 570 points against Nasdaq 100 futures up 359 points implies rotation rather than a uniform risk-on bid. If that holds, mega-cap tech carries the index while cyclicals and industrials stay under pressure.

The currency channel is the second-order effect. AUDUSD and NZDUSD have already stretched the furthest on risk-off sentiment and prospects for lower growth, so any payroll surprise that reverses the dollar's morning strength hits those pairs hardest. USDCAD is past its average before either jobs report has landed — the bigger move there comes if the surprises pull the two currencies in opposite directions. Stronger US data and weaker Canadian data would favor the upside; the reverse would favor the downside.

Commodities are mixed. WTI crude is up $0.47 at $90.99 after trading between $89.07 and $92.53. Spot gold is down about 0.5% near $4,068, silver is up 0.58% near $52.07, copper is little changed near $6.27, and Bitcoin is nearly flat at $76,031.

The counter-argument: an early bounce after a 6.36% rout is often short-covering, not new demand. If the first move in stocks fails to attract follow-through, the reversal back into the range would signal the bounce was positioning rather than conviction.

Outlook — what to watch next

Three catalysts sit on the calendar. The US and Canadian October jobs reports both land at 8:30 a.m. ET, followed by University of Michigan preliminary November sentiment at 10:00 a.m. ET. The headline index is expected at 48.0, unchanged from October's final reading, with current conditions at 48.0 versus 46.7 and expectations at 49.5 versus 48.8.

Levels to watch: EURUSD at 1.1174 sits six pips above the 1.1168 low, with 1.1200 and the prior close at 1.1218 above. USDJPY at 158.29 is eight pips below the 158.37 session high, with 158.50 in focus above and 157.66 below. GBPUSD at 1.3399 holds below 1.3400, keeping 1.3382 in play, with 1.3449 and 1.3463 above.

The dollar is near session highs against the yen and near its strongest levels of the morning against the euro and sterling. The first test after payrolls is whether those extremes break and hold.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does the Nasdaq 100's 6.36% drop mean for retail investors?

The drop was the index's worst day since March 2020, and it was matched by declines across the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite. For retail investors, the relevant question is whether the selloff was a one-day repricing or the start of a trend. Futures pointing to a +359-point Nasdaq 100 open suggest some buyers see value, but Dow futures down 570 points show the bid is not broad.

Why is USDCAD moving so much before the jobs reports?

USDCAD traded a 1.4009–1.4081 range, or 111% of its 22-day average, before either report has landed. Both the US and Canadian October jobs reports are due at 8:30 a.m. ET, so the pair faces two simultaneous catalysts. The bigger move comes if the surprises pull the two currencies in opposite directions — stronger US data and weaker Canadian data would favor the upside.

What happens next for the dollar after payrolls?

The dollar is higher across the majors, most against the NZD (+0.82%) and AUD (+0.75%). The first test after payrolls is whether the session extremes against the yen, euro, and sterling break and hold. A quick reversal back into the range would tell traders the first move failed to attract follow-through, which would undercut the morning's dollar strength.

Bottom Line

Nasdaq futures are bidding, but the split open and firmer yields mean payrolls at 8:30 a.m. ET decides whether the bounce holds.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. CFD trading carries high risk of capital loss.