Mosaic Posts $72M Q3 Loss as Sulfur Deal Sets Q4 Cash Rebound

# Mosaic Posts $72M Q3 Loss as Sulfur Deal Sets Q4 Cash Rebound

The Mosaic Company reported a third-quarter 2026 net loss of $72 million, or $0.23 per diluted share, on net sales of $3.1 billion, the Tampa-based fertilizer producer said on 3 November 2026. Adjusted EBITDA fell to $324 million from $806 million a year earlier. The company also settled a fourth-quarter sulfur supply contract at $615 per long ton and refinanced all long-term debt maturities through 2028, with its $2.5 billion revolving credit facility fully available.

Context — Why Mosaic's Q3 Loss Matters for Fertilizer Markets

Mosaic's third quarter lands against a phosphate market the company describes as tight, with demand outpacing customer expectations and North American inventories expected to stay low into next year. The company said stronger agricultural commodity prices have improved farmer economics, and a second consecutive year of solid yields has further depleted soil nutrients.

The swing is stark against the same quarter of 2025, when Mosaic earned $411 million, or $0.23 diluted income per share on a comparable basis of profitability. Third-quarter 2026 results absorbed $53 million of pre-tax notable items, primarily environmental reserve adjustments, facility closure expenses and restructuring costs, partly offset by a positive mark on Mosaic's investment in Ma'aden and foreign-currency movements.

What changed is sulfur. Global phosphate production remains constrained by sulfur availability, and Mosaic curtailed output because affordable supply was limited. That decision cut sales volumes and drove idle, turnaround and unabsorbed fixed costs to $77 million in the quarter, versus $42 million a year earlier.

The balance-sheet work is the counterweight. Mosaic refinanced and extended all long-term maturities through 2028 and kept its revolver undrawn, preserving flexibility while the operating picture resets. The company also paid a regular quarterly dividend of $0.22 per share.

CEO Bruce Bodine said the company aligned phosphate production with affordable sulfur availability, reduced costs and strengthened its financial position, adding that these actions position Mosaic to deliver stronger performance as conditions improve.

Data — What Mosaic's Q3 2026 Numbers Show

Operating results by segment frame the damage. Phosphate swung to a $194 million operating loss from $102 million of income a year earlier, with segment adjusted EBITDA of $49 million against $280 million. Potash earned $189 million, down from $229 million, and Mosaic Fertilizantes lost $21 million versus $96 million of income.

The table below sets the headline figures against the prior-year quarter.

Metric	Q3 2026	Q3 2025
Net sales	$3.1bn	$3.5bn
Operating earnings (loss)	$(97)m	$340m
Net income (loss)	$(72)m	$411m
Adjusted EBITDA	$324m	$806m
Phosphate adj. EBITDA	$49m	$280m
Potash adj. EBITDA	$284m	$329m
Fertilizantes adj. EBITDA	$41m	$241m

Potash held up best. Sales volumes were 2.1 million tonnes against 2.3 million a year earlier, and MOP cash cost of production per tonne fell sequentially to $73 from $84, helped by higher operating rates at Esterhazy and Colonsay. Phosphate volumes were 1.4 million tonnes versus 1.6 million, but the DAP selling price rose to $838 per tonne from $714, and cash cost of conversion improved to $117 from $131.

Fertilizantes was the weakest link: volumes fell to 1.9 million tonnes from 2.8 million, and phosphate cash cost of conversion rose to $147 per tonne from $99. Cash flow from operations rose to $284 million from $229 million, and free cash flow was breakeven versus negative $135 million.

Analysis — Where Mosaic's Costs and Cash Flow Go Next

The sulfur contract is the pivot point. At $615 per long ton for the fourth quarter, it sits below the $715 average raw material sulfur cost Mosaic paid in the third quarter, a gap that should ease input pressure once those tonnes flow through cost of goods sold.

Timing matters because of the inventory cycle. Mosaic said higher-cost raw materials purchased and consumed in the third quarter will keep flowing through cost of goods sold in the fourth quarter, reflecting a two- to three-month lag, so stripping margins and adjusted EBITDA are expected to decline further before the sulfur benefit arrives.

That creates a split-screen quarter: reported earnings pressure alongside improving cash. The company expects cash flow to improve sequentially on the sulfur settlement, with the related earnings benefits landing primarily in the first quarter of 2027.

Volume curtailments carry their own second-order costs. Mosaic flagged additional curtailments at the South Fort Meade and Miski Mayo mines, which will lift idle and unabsorbed fixed costs again in the fourth quarter before moderating in 2027. Fertilizantes faces the full-quarter impact of production cuts plus typical seasonality, which the company expects to push fourth-quarter segment adjusted EBITDA below third-quarter levels.

The counter-argument is that phosphate pricing is doing heavy lifting. DAP prices are guided to $820 to $840 per tonne in the fourth quarter, above the $838 realized in the third quarter on a range basis, and potash demand looks set for another record year on healthy affordability. If prices hold while sulfur normalizes, the margin recovery could be faster than the cost-lag math implies.

Positioning reflects that tension. Investors holding Mosaic for the phosphate price cycle are effectively underwriting a sulfur-cost normalization that management has only partly de-risked through one quarterly contract.

Outlook — What to Watch for Mosaic Into 2027

Mosaic guided fourth-quarter phosphate sales volumes to 1.3 to 1.6 million tonnes with DAP prices at $820 to $840 per tonne, and potash volumes to 2.3 to 2.6 million tonnes with MOP mine-gate prices of $255 to $275 per tonne. Full-year 2026 potash production is now expected at 8.6 million tonnes after abnormal geological conditions at Esterhazy lowered ore grades.

Capital spending is the other lever. Mosaic now expects 2026 capital expenditures of $1.2 billion and is targeting below $1 billion for 2027, while total depreciation, depletion and amortization is guided to $1.1 billion to $1.2 billion for 2026.

The portfolio review is the wildcard. Mosaic has completed $67 million of year-to-date land sales, is advancing a sale process for its Araxá facility in Brazil and continues evaluating other non-core assets. The company did not disclose terms or timing for the Araxá process.

Mosaic's conference call is scheduled for 4 November 2026 at 11:00 a.m. Eastern Time, where fourth-quarter cost trajectory and the sulfur benefit timing will face scrutiny.

Frequently Asked Questions

Why did Mosaic report a net loss in Q3 2026?

Mosaic's $72 million loss combined lower sales volumes across all three segments with higher raw material costs in Phosphate and Mosaic Fertilizantes, partly offset by higher phosphate prices. The quarter also absorbed $53 million of pre-tax notable items, mainly environmental reserve adjustments, facility closure expenses and restructuring costs, which were partially offset by a positive adjustment to the value of the company's Ma'aden investment.

What does the $615 sulfur contract mean for Mosaic's earnings?

Sulfur is a key phosphate input, and Mosaic paid an average of $715 per long ton in the third quarter. The fourth-quarter contract at $615 per long ton should reduce input costs, but the benefit reaches earnings with a two- to three-month lag because of inventory accounting. Mosaic expects cash flow to improve in the fourth quarter, with related earnings benefits primarily in the first quarter of 2027.

How does Mosaic's potash segment compare with phosphate right now?

Potash generated $284 million of adjusted EBITDA in the third quarter versus $49 million for phosphate. Potash volumes were 2.1 million tonnes and cash cost per tonne fell to $73 from $84 sequentially. Phosphate absorbed $77 million of idle, turnaround and unabsorbed fixed costs after production curtailments tied to limited affordable sulfur supply.

Bottom Line

Mosaic's earnings trough is sulfur-driven, and the fourth-quarter contract at $615 per long ton is the first hard evidence the cost pressure is easing.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. CFD trading carries high risk of capital loss.