Trump Orders DOJ Probe Into Gasoline Prices, Citing Slow Decline
0h ago|4 min readStandard
Fazen Markets Editorial Desk
Collective editorial team · methodology
gasoline-pricesdoj-investigation
Fazen Markets Editorial Desk
Collective editorial team · methodology
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President Donald Trump ordered the Department of Justice to investigate high gasoline prices on June 24, 2026. The directive follows a multi-week decline in crude oil futures that has not fully translated to lower prices at the pump. The White House cited a 22% drop in West Texas Intermediate crude from its May peak as justification for the probe. Retail gasoline prices have fallen only 14% over the same period, creating a widening crack spread that benefits refining margins.
This marks the first direct presidential order for a Justice Department probe into fuel prices since 2011. Then-President Obama formed a task force to investigate oil market manipulation following similar price disparities. The current investigation comes amid declining energy inflation, with gasoline contributing significantly to recent CPI moderation. The energy component of the Consumer Price Index rose just 0.3% month-over-month in May, down from 2.1% in April.
The trigger appears to be the widening gap between spot crude prices and retail gasoline. Brent crude has fallen to $78 per barrel from $98 in May, while the national average for regular unleaded remains at $3.42 per gallon. This represents a 40% decline from the $5.72 peak seen during the 2022 energy crisis but remains elevated relative to current input costs. Refining margins have expanded to $32 per barrel, nearly double their five-year average of $17.
The crack spread between Brent crude and RBOB gasoline futures has widened to $32.18 per barrel, exceeding the 2024 average of $24.50. This represents a 31% expansion since the beginning of the second quarter. Retail gasoline prices averaged $3.42 nationally as of June 23, down from $3.89 one month prior but still $0.38 above year-ago levels.
Regional disparities remain significant. West Coast prices average $4.12 per gallon despite comprising just 15% of national demand. Gulf Coast prices average $3.08 per gallon while accounting for 45% of U.S. refining capacity. The national inventory picture shows gasoline stocks at 228 million barrels, 5% below the five-year average for this period.
Refiner utilization rates have climbed to 94.2% nationwide, with Gulf Coast facilities operating at 97.8% capacity. This high utilization coincides with planned maintenance at three major Midwest refineries representing 800,000 barrels per day of capacity. The investigation will likely examine whether production constraints are legitimate or artificially constructed.
Refining equities face immediate pressure from the announced probe. The SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF (XOP) declined 2.3% in pre-market trading following the announcement. Independent refiners including Valero Energy (VLO) and Phillips 66 (PSX) could see margin compression if the investigation reveals any anti-competitive practices.
The probe may benefit retail-focused companies disproportionately affected by high fuel costs. Amazon (AMZN) and Uber (UBER) have cited transportation fuel expenses as margin headwinds in recent quarters. Lower gasoline prices could improve delivery economics and consumer discretionary spending.
A key limitation involves the seasonal nature of gasoline demand. Summer driving season typically supports higher prices through increased consumption. The investigation must distinguish between natural market dynamics and potential manipulation. Energy traders have increased short positions on gasoline futures by 18% since the announcement, suggesting expectations of price moderation.
The DOJ will likely issue subpoenas to major refiners and trading desks within two weeks. Historical precedent suggests document requests will focus on communications around production decisions and pricing strategies. The Energy Information Administration's weekly petroleum status report on June 26 will provide updated inventory data crucial to the investigation's baseline.
Key technical levels include the $3.25 per gallon threshold for RBOB gasoline futures. A break below this support would suggest the investigation is affecting market psychology. Refining margins above $30 per barrel appear unsustainable if the DOJ finds evidence of coordinated production cuts.
The American Petroleum Institute's weekly inventory data on June 25 will provide early indication of whether refiners are increasing output in response to political pressure. Any significant build in gasoline stocks above the 230 million barrel level would signal increased supply responsiveness.
The immediate effect may be psychological, with retailers potentially lowering margins to avoid scrutiny. Historical precedents suggest investigations can accelerate price convergence with underlying crude costs. The 2011 probe saw gasoline prices fall 12 cents per gallon in the subsequent month despite stable crude markets. Consumers might see faster price declines at the pump as the investigation progresses.
Crack spreads represent the difference between crude oil costs and refined product revenues. Wider spreads directly boost refiners' profitability per barrel processed. The current $32 spread adds approximately $0.76 per gallon to refining margins compared to the $17 historical average that generates about $0.40 per gallon. This investigation threatens these elevated margins.
Independent refiners with high gasoline output face greatest exposure. Valero Energy derives 68% of revenue from gasoline production, while Phillips 66 generates 59% from refining operations. Integrated majors like Exxon Mobil and Chevron have smaller exposure at 35-40% of revenue from downstream operations. Retail operators like Costco may benefit from lower fuel costs driving store traffic.
The DOJ investigation introduces regulatory risk to refining margins that had expanded on favorable supply dynamics.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. CFD trading carries high risk of capital loss.
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