Strait of Hormuz Reopening Could Send Oil to Pre-War Levels

Sara Vakhshouri, founder of SVB Energy International, stated on June 15, 2026, that the global oil market has successfully adapted to the disruption of the Strait of Hormuz. The energy strategist noted that a full and verified reopening of the critical waterway could precipitate a rapid price decline. This drop would potentially return benchmark crude prices to levels seen before the conflict-related closures began. Vakhshouri made these comments during an interview on Bloomberg's The China Show with David Ingles and Yvonne Man.

Context — why the Strait of Hormuz matters now

The Strait of Hormuz is the world's most important oil transit chokepoint, with an estimated 21 million barrels per day flowing through it in 2025. This volume represents about 21% of global petroleum liquid consumption. The waterway's closure in late 2025 following regional hostilities triggered an immediate 18% spike in Brent crude futures, which briefly surpassed $105 per barrel. The market has since stabilized as supply chains rerouted and strategic petroleum reserves were tapped. The current macro backdrop includes subdued global demand growth projections of 1.1 million barrels per day for 2026 from the International Energy Agency. The primary catalyst for a potential price reversal is the diplomatic progress reported between involved parties, increasing the probability of a sustained reopening.

Historical precedents show that oil price shocks from supply disruptions are often temporary. The most recent comparable event was the September 2019 attack on Saudi Arabia's Abqaiq facility, which temporarily removed 5.7 million barrels per day from production. Brent crude surged 19% in a single session but retreated to pre-attack levels within three weeks as supply was restored. The Hormuz disruption is more significant due to its duration and the volume of oil affected, but the market's adaptive mechanisms remain strong.

Data — what the numbers show

Global oil inventories have increased for three consecutive months, rising by 45 million barrels since the disruption began. Brent crude futures currently trade near $89 per barrel, down from a crisis peak of $105 but still $14 above the pre-disruption average of $75. The price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude shows a similar pattern, trading at $86 versus a pre-crisis $72. The volatility index for oil futures, the OVX, has declined from a high of 58 to 32, indicating reduced market fear.

Metric	Pre-Disruption (Oct 2025)	Current (June 2026)	Change
Brent Crude Price	$75	$89	+18.7%
Daily Transit (mbpd)	21.0	~5.5 (via alternate routes)	-73.8%
OVX Volatility Index	28	32	+14.3%

US shale production has responded to higher prices, increasing output by 800,000 barrels per day to a record 13.8 million bpd. This growth has partially offset the supply gap created by the Hormuz disruption.

Analysis — what it means for markets and sectors

A decline in oil prices to pre-war levels would have significant second-order effects across global equity sectors. Airlines such as Delta Air Lines (DAL) and United Airlines (UAL) would be primary beneficiaries, with every $10 drop in oil potentially adding $0.50 to $0.70 per share to annual earnings. The transportation and logistics sector, including companies like FedEx (FDX), would also see margin expansion. Conversely, major oil producers like ExxonMobil (XOM) and Chevron (CVX) could face headwinds; a $15 drop in Brent crude could reduce their annual cash flow by approximately 8-10%.

A key counter-argument is that even if the strait reopens, underlying supply tightness may prevent a full price collapse. OPEC+ spare capacity remains limited at around 3.5 million barrels per day, and many non-OPEC producers are already operating near maximum capacity. Hedge fund positioning data from the CFTC shows that managed money holds a net long position of 280,000 futures contracts, suggesting many speculators are betting on sustained higher prices. A sudden reopening could trigger a rapid unwinding of these positions, accelerating any price decline.

Outlook — what to watch next

The next OPEC+ meeting on July 1, 2026, is the immediate catalyst, where members may preemptively announce production cuts to defend a price floor. Market participants will monitor weekly US inventory data from the Energy Information Administration every Wednesday for signs of inventory drawdowns or builds. The key technical level for Brent crude is the 200-day moving average, currently at $82.50, which acted as strong support throughout early 2025.

A verified reopening of the strait would shift focus to the pace of shipping normalization. Traders will watch vessel tracking data from the Port of Fujairah for a sustained increase in tanker traffic. If diplomatic talks stall, the critical resistance level to watch is the psychological barrier of $95 per barrel for Brent. The Federal Reserve's stance on interest rates will also influence oil demand projections, with the next FOMC meeting scheduled for July 26.

Frequently Asked Questions

How does the Strait of Hormuz closure affect gasoline prices?

The initial closure in 2025 caused a rapid 40-cent per gallon increase in US national average gasoline prices, which peaked at $4.15. Prices have since moderated to around $3.75, but remain elevated compared to the pre-crisis average of $3.35. A reopening would likely reverse this premium, with a lag of 4-6 weeks as cheaper crude works through the refining and distribution system. The impact is more pronounced on the US West Coast, which relies more heavily on imports that transit the strait.

What are the alternate routes for oil if the Strait of Hormuz is closed?

The primary alternative is the East-West Pipeline (Petroline) across Saudi Arabia, which has a capacity of 5 million barrels per day. Other workarounds include using the Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline to the Fujairah port on the Gulf of Oman, bypassing the strait with a 1.5 million bpd capacity. These routes are longer, more expensive, and have been operating near maximum capacity since the disruption began, limiting their ability to fully compensate for the closure.

How does this oil price volatility impact renewable energy stocks?

Heightened oil price volatility generally increases investor interest in renewable energy as a hedge against geopolitical risk. The iShares Global Clean Energy ETF (ICLN) rallied 12% in the month following the initial Hormuz disruption. However, a sharp drop in oil prices could temporarily dampen enthusiasm for alternatives. The long-term trend remains supportive for renewables due to climate policy mandates, but short-term trading is highly correlated with fossil fuel price swings.