Nasdaq 100 Hits Record 30,808 as Yields Reverse Higher

The US employment report gave stock buyers something to cheer about on Friday, but the bond market refused to cooperate. Nonfarm payrolls rose just 29,000 against 90,000 expected, and the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2%. The Nasdaq 100 closed at a record 30,807.93, up 306.37 points or 1.00%, while the 10-year Treasury yield reversed an early slide and finished at 5.2939%, up 5.99 basis points on the day. Nvidia traded to a new all-time intraday high, with live data showing NVDA at $233.95, up 2.44%, in a $233.60-$237.87 range as of 22:16 UTC today.

Context — why a soft jobs report did not settle the rate debate

The report's own comparable is the revision trail. August payrolls were cut to 133,000 from 162,000, and July and August together were revised down by 60,000. Over July to September, payroll growth averaged roughly 51,000 a month — a pace that, on the report's own breakdown, leans heavily on a few sectors.

Private education and health services added 20,000 jobs, construction added 11,000 and manufacturing added 9,000. Information, financial activities, and professional and business services all lost jobs. Education, health, construction and manufacturing together added more positions than the entire headline payroll increase, meaning weakness elsewhere subtracted from the total.

Wages added to the soft tone. Average hourly earnings rose 0.1% for the month against 0.3% expected, and annual growth slowed to 3.0% from 3.2% expected. Slower wage growth eases one channel of services inflation, which is why the first reaction was a bond rally.

The macro backdrop is the tension. The 2-year yield sits at 4.8414% and the 30-year at 5.6448%, so the curve is steeply upward-sloping, and the 10-year near 5.29% keeps borrowing costs elevated for everything from mortgages to corporate refinancing.

What triggered the event now is the calendar: this was the September employment report, the last major labour read before the October Fed meeting. Traders cut October hike odds to roughly 15%-16% right after the release, which is the catalyst chain that lifted stocks and initially pushed the dollar lower.

Data — what the numbers show

The equity move was broad. The Dow industrial average finished at 51,182.11, up 250.00 points or 0.49%. The S&P 500 added 56.39 points or 0.74% to 7,722.85. The Nasdaq Composite rose 319.27 points or 1.19% to 27,190.86, and the Russell 2000 gained 26.27 points or 0.94% to 2,832.90.

Asset	Level	Change
Nasdaq 100	30,807.93	+1.00%, record close
Nasdaq Composite	27,190.86	+1.19%
S&P 500	7,722.85	+0.74%
Russell 2000	2,832.90	+0.94%

Before and after in bonds: the 10-year traded toward 5.17% immediately after the report, then ended at 5.2939%, back near 5.30%. The 5-year rose 6.83 basis points to 5.0733%, the largest move on the curve.

In currencies, the dollar finished lower against most majors. EURUSD was 1.1257, USD down 0.14%; GBPUSD 1.3244, USD down 0.34%; USDCHF 0.8283, USD down 0.29%; AUDUSD 0.6958, USD down 0.42%. The Canadian dollar was the exception, with USDCAD at 1.4251, USD up 0.23%, as lower oil weighed on the loonie.

Analysis — what it means for markets and sectors

Technology carried the tape. Both Nasdaq indices beat the Dow and S&P 500, and the Russell 2000's 0.94% gain shows the buying spread past mega-cap names. Nvidia's intraday record with NVDA at $233.95, up 2.44%, illustrates the same split visible at the index level: intraday strength, but not every record attempt survived the close. The Nasdaq Composite hit a new intraday high yet finished below its prior record close near 27,244.

The second-order effect runs through rates. A 10-year yield back near 5.30% raises the discount rate applied to long-duration cash flows, which is why the yield reversal matters more for high-multiple technology than for value sectors. It also keeps pressure on rate-sensitive corners of the market that did not lead Friday's advance.

The counter-argument is straightforward. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee called the labour market steady and said inflation was the more pressing part of the Fed's mandate, leaving both a hike and a pause available. One soft payroll print does not close the policy question, and the bond market's refusal to hold its rally is the clearest expression of that view.

Positioning tells the same story. Dollar sellers had their shot after the data and could not hold the full decline — USDJPY fell to 156.97 before recovering to 157.82. Bond buyers who chased the initial rally were underwater by the close. Equity flow, by contrast, stayed net long into the weekend.

Outlook — what to watch next

Next week's calendar starts with US ISM services on Monday and Fed minutes on Wednesday. ECB meeting accounts follow on Thursday, then Canadian employment and University of Michigan sentiment on Friday. The inflation expectations component of the Michigan survey deserves particular attention given the wage data.

On levels, the 10-year yield near 5.30% is the pivot. A sustained move above it keeps pressure on long-duration equities; a retreat back toward 5.17% would restore the conditions that produced Friday's early stock bid. For the Nasdaq 100, 30,807.93 is now the reference closing high, with the Composite's prior record close near 27,244 the level it failed to reclaim.

Oil is the other input. WTI settled at $91.41, down $1.46 or 1.57%, after recovering from a break below the $88.72 floor. That floor is the level to watch if supply headlines return.

Frequently Asked Questions

Why did stocks rise while Treasury yields also rose?

Equities and bonds reacted to different parts of the same report. Stocks focused on slower wage growth and reduced October hike odds, which support earnings multiples. Bonds initially rallied, then reversed as inflation and the broader rate outlook stayed unresolved. By the close the 10-year was at 5.2939%, above Thursday's level, while the Nasdaq 100 held a record close at 30,807.93.

What does the September jobs report mean for the Fed's October meeting?

Immediately after the release, October hike probabilities fell to roughly 15%-16%. That is a post-release reading, not a settled outcome. Goolsbee framed the labour market as steady and named inflation as the more pressing mandate, leaving both options open. The yield reversal suggests the market did not treat the report as decisive either.

Why did gold fall on a day the dollar weakened?

Gold usually benefits from a softer dollar, but the yield reversal was the stronger force. Spot gold fell $34.84 or 0.83% to $4,142.55, and silver dropped 0.72% to $60.509. Higher Treasury yields raise the opportunity cost of holding a metal that pays no interest, which outweighed the dollar's decline. Copper gained 0.69%, showing metals did not move as one block.

Bottom Line

Stocks booked a record, but the bond market's failed rally is the signal that mattered most.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. CFD trading carries high risk of capital loss.