Kalshi Crypto Perpetuals Grow 221% to $90 Trillion by 2025
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Fazen Markets Editorial Desk
Collective editorial team · methodology
kalshiperpetual-swaps
Fazen Markets Editorial Desk
Collective editorial team · methodology
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Kalshi is expanding its product suite beyond political and economic event contracts into crypto derivatives. The institutional prediction market platform reported its offshore perpetuals trading volume grew from $28 trillion in annual volume during 2023 to more than $90 trillion by 2025. CNBC published the report on May 29, 2026. This 221% surge vaults the firm into direct competition with established offshore crypto derivatives venues.
The expansion occurs as global regulators increase scrutiny on offshore crypto exchanges lacking clear jurisdiction. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission sued Binance for $4.3 billion in November 2023, alleging willful evasion of U.S. derivatives laws. Bybit exited the U.S. market entirely in May 2023 under regulatory pressure. Kalshi, as a CFTC-regulated designated contract market operating within the U.S. regulatory perimeter, offers a compliance-native path to perpetuals trading. The current macro backdrop features a 10-year Treasury yield stabilizing near 4.2% and the S&P 500 up 6% year-to-date. Institutional crypto adoption is accelerating, with BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust holding over $20 billion in assets. Kalshi's move is triggered by client demand for leveraged crypto exposure without the counterparty risk associated with unregulated offshore entities. The catalyst chain links regulatory action, institutional capital inflows, and technological infrastructure readiness.
Kalshi's reported $90 trillion in 2025 perpetuals volume represents a compound annual growth rate of 79% from the 2023 baseline of $28 trillion. For comparison, the entire global spot crypto market recorded approximately $40 trillion in volume during 2023. The $62 trillion two-year volume delta eclipses the 2023 gross domestic product of Japan, the world's third-largest economy. Kalshi's growth significantly outpaces the broader crypto derivatives sector, which grew roughly 50% annually over the same period.
| Metric | 2023 | 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi Perpetuals Volume | $28T | $90T | +221% |
| Estimated Market Share | <1% | ~5-7% | +600 bps |
Bybit, a major offshore competitor, reported average daily derivatives volume of $15 billion in Q1 2025, equating to roughly $5.5 trillion annually. Kalshi's implied daily volume of approximately $250 billion suggests it has captured a material portion of the migrating institutional flow.
Kalshi's success directly pressures revenues at offshore exchanges like Bybit and OKX. Market makers and liquidity providers such as Jump Trading and GSR will likely re-allocate capital to the new regulated venue, compressing fees on incumbent platforms. Publicly traded crypto-exposed companies like Coinbase (COIN) face a mixed outlook. Coinbase's international exchange offers derivatives, but Kalshi's U.S.-regulated status could limit its domestic growth in that segment. The primary limitation is Kalshi's reliance on offshore entities to settle perpetual contracts, a structural necessity that still carries jurisdictional ambiguity. Trading flow is moving from purely offshore books to hybrid models that use regulated front-ends. Large asset managers and hedge funds are establishing long positions in crypto volatility via Kalshi's platform while maintaining short hedges on legacy exchanges.
For deeper analysis on the evolving structure of crypto derivatives markets, visit Fazen Markets.
The next catalyst is the CFTC's final rulemaking on retail crypto commodity transactions, expected by Q3 2026. A strict rule could further advantage Kalshi's existing regulatory status. Second, monitor the monthly volume reports from CME Group's crypto derivatives segment, due on June 5, 2026, for signs of market share erosion. Key levels for the broader sector include Bitcoin holding above its 200-day moving average, currently near $75,000, and the aggregate open interest in perpetual swaps across all venues, which sits at $38 billion. If open interest migrates above $45 billion while Bitcoin's price remains range-bound, it will signal increased hedging activity directly tied to new venue adoption. The SEC's decision on Ethereum ETF options, anticipated by late 2026, will create another product lane where regulated prediction markets could compete.
Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated designated contract market (DCM) and has been since 2021. It traditionally specialized in event contracts, where traders speculate on binary outcomes like election results or inflation figures. Its move into crypto perpetual swaps uses the same regulated market infrastructure but applies it to a continuously settled derivative product tied to crypto assets. This differs from traditional crypto exchanges, which often operate as unregulated entities or limited-purpose broker-dealers.
The primary risk remains the inherent volatility of the underlying crypto assets. Kalshi mitigates counterparty risk through its regulated clearinghouse model, a key differentiator from offshore exchanges. However, the perpetual swaps themselves are settled through an offshore entity to avoid direct exposure to the underlying spot crypto assets, which may still present legal complexity. Funding rate mechanics and leverage of up to 50x introduce significant risk of liquidation during sharp price moves.
Increased availability of regulated, high-use derivatives typically improves market depth and liquidity. This can reduce volatility during normal conditions but may exacerbate liquidations during flash crashes as large positions are unwound simultaneously. The migration of volume to a U.S.-regulated venue could be viewed as a maturation signal, potentially attracting more institutional capital into spot BTC and ETH markets over the medium term, providing a supportive technical backdrop.
Explore our coverage of institutional capital flows into digital assets at Fazen Markets.
Kalshi's explosive perpetuals growth marks a pivotal shift of crypto derivatives volume toward regulated U.S. platforms.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. CFD trading carries high risk of capital loss.
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