Al Hammoury: Gold and Energy Hedges Undervalued as Geopolitical Inflation Looms
1h ago|4 min readStandard
Fazen Markets Editorial Desk
Collective editorial team · methodology
goldinflation hedge
Fazen Markets Editorial Desk
Collective editorial team · methodology
Trades XAUUSD 24/5 on autopilot. Verified Myfxbook performance. Free forever.
Risk warning: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The majority of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs. Vortex HFT is informational software — not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Equiti Group Chief Market Strategist Noureldeen Al Hammoury stated on 11 June 2026 that strategic hedges in gold and energy remain critically important for portfolios. His analysis contends that financial markets are seriously underpricing the risk of a prolonged geopolitical inflation cycle. This view was expressed during an interview on Bloomberg's "Insight with Haslinda Amin." The warning comes with gold trading near $2,350 per ounce and Brent crude oil holding above $84 per barrel.
Al Hammoury's warning arrives amid a backdrop of persistent inflationary pressures that have challenged central bank models since 2021. The core PCE price index, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, remains above the 2.0% target at 2.6% as of the latest April 2026 reading. The current 10-year US Treasury yield trades at 4.31%, reflecting ongoing uncertainty about the path of monetary policy and term premiums.
The catalyst for reassessing traditional inflation hedges is a structural shift in the nature of price pressures. The initial 2021-2023 inflation surge was driven by post-pandemic demand and supply chain bottlenecks. Current inflation is increasingly fueled by geopolitical fragmentation, which rewrites trade routes, resource flows, and defense budgets. This creates a supply-side driven cycle less responsive to interest rate hikes alone.
Historical precedent exists for such a regime. The oil price shocks of the 1970s, triggered by the 1973 Arab-Israeli War and the 1979 Iranian Revolution, created a decade of stagflation. The headline US CPI averaged 7.1% annually from 1973 through 1982. This period demonstrated how geopolitical supply shocks can entrench inflationary expectations for years, a dynamic Al Hammoury suggests is being discounted.
Market pricing reveals a complacency Al Hammoury warns against. The 5-year, 5-year forward inflation swap, a market gauge of long-term inflation expectations, sits at 2.4%. This is only modestly above the Fed's target and suggests traders expect a return to pre-2021 stability. Gold's year-to-date performance of +8.5% lags behind the S&P 500's +12.3% gain, indicating a relative preference for risk assets over traditional havens.
Concrete flows into inflation-protected assets show mixed signals. Total assets under management in the largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Shares (GLD), stand at $68.2 billion, up 4% from the start of 2026. Holdings in the iShares TIPS Bond ETF (TIP) are $28.4 billion, flat year-to-date. In contrast, the energy sector ETF (XLE) has seen net outflows of $1.7 billion over the last quarter despite a 6% price rise.
| Asset | Current Level | YTD % Change | Key Support Level |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gold (XAU/USD) | $2,352 | +8.5% | $2,280 |
| Brent Crude | $84.20 | +5.1% | $80.00 |
| U.S. 10-Year Yield | 4.31% | +18 bps | 4.50% |
| S&P 500 | 5,480 | +12.3% | 5,350 |
The direct beneficiaries of a validated geopolitical inflation thesis are commodity producers and related equities. Within energy, integrated majors like ExxonMobil (XOM) and Chevron (CVX) gain from higher upstream profits and resilient downstream margins. Oilfield services firms Schlumberger (SLB) and Halliburton (HAL) benefit from increased capital expenditure in a tight supply environment. Gold miners such as Newmont Corporation (NEM) and Barrick Gold (GOLD) see expanded profit margins as bullion prices rise faster than operating costs.
A counter-argument is that sustained high interest rates could eventually stifle global demand, reducing commodity consumption and pressuring prices. The 2024 experience showed that aggressive Fed hiking cycles can cool demand even amid supply constraints. technological efficiency gains and the energy transition could structurally lower long-term demand for fossil fuels, capping the cycle.
Positioning data indicates institutional investors are cautiously adding to long commodity positions as a hedge rather than a core bet. CFTC data shows managed money net long positions in gold futures rose by 12% in the week to 4 June. Energy futures positioning remains range-bound, suggesting traders await clearer signals on OPEC+ production discipline and China's stimulus effectiveness. Flow analysis from Fazen Markets shows renewed interest in structured products linking to broad commodity baskets.
The immediate catalyst is the upcoming OPEC+ meeting on 1 July 2026. Any decision to extend or deepen production cuts would validate supply-side scarcity concerns and likely propel Brent crude toward the $90 resistance level. Conversely, a surprise agreement to increase output would pressure prices toward the $80 support.
For gold, the key watchpoint is the 26 June release of the U.S. core PCE data for May. A print significantly above the 2.6% consensus would reinforce the sticky inflation narrative, supporting gold's role as a monetary hedge. A break above the $2,400 resistance level would signal a new bullish phase, while a drop below $2,280 would indicate a failed breakout.
Broader market focus will be on the 30-31 July Federal Open Market Committee meeting. The language in the statement regarding the persistence of inflation will be scrutinized for any acknowledgement of geopolitical drivers. A shift in tone recognizing supply-side constraints as more durable would accelerate portfolio rotations into real assets.
Geopolitical inflation originates from supply constraints caused by conflict, sanctions, or trade fragmentation, such as restricted energy exports or blocked shipping lanes. Demand-driven inflation stems from excessive consumer spending or loose monetary policy. The key difference is policy response: central banks can cool demand with rate hikes but cannot create new supply routes or resolve wars, making geopolitical inflation more persistent and challenging to tame.
Investors typically look to companies with high operational use to the oil price. This includes large-cap integrated producers like ExxonMobil and Chevron, which have global scale and integrated operations. Pure-play exploration and production companies like Pioneer Natural Resources offer more direct exposure. Midstream pipeline MLPs like Enterprise Products Partners provide steady dividends tied to volume, not price, offering a different risk profile. For broader coverage, the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE) holds a basket of these firms.
Vortex HFT is our free MT4/MT5 Expert Advisor. Verified Myfxbook performance. No subscription. No fees. Trades 24/5.
Trade gold, silver & commodities — zero commission
Start TradingSponsored
Open a demo account in 30 seconds. No deposit required.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.