BlackRock's Hambro Sees Gold Rising on Debt and Deficits

Evy Hambro, BlackRock's global head of thematic and sector investing, said on 21 October 2026 that gold will keep appreciating as government debt, budget deficits and currency depreciation worsen, and that gold mining shares are again delivering amplified returns versus the metal. He put the historical leverage ratio at roughly three times the gold price, with mining costs rising more slowly than prices. BlackRock holds about 12% of Newmont, 10% of AngloGold Ashanti and 6% of Gold Fields. Hambro also called roughly $12 billion of announced gold major buybacks reckless.

Context — why gold's fiscal-debasement case is getting louder

Hambro's argument rests on a comparison he drew himself: when he began his career around three decades ago, copper traded near 60 cents a pound and gold around $400 an ounce, versus roughly $6 and $4,000 now. That is the frame for everything else he said.

He described the current mix as mild stagflation, a weak dollar and geopolitical turmoil, and expects it to persist. Government bond markets, in his reading, are signalling that public finances are unhealthy, with rising yields reflecting very large debt levels and growing annual deficits.

What changed to bring this into focus is the behaviour of lenders. Hambro said investors are increasingly reluctant to lend to governments that spend poorly and have no plan to tackle their debts, and will demand much higher interest rates to do so. That is a supply-and-demand statement about sovereign credit, not a forecast about any single bond auction.

His remedy for the debt burden is the least painful one in his view: inflate it away. That implies central banks may be less strict about hitting inflation targets they already frequently miss — a policy bias that historically favours real assets.

The buyback criticism is the second catalyst. Speaking at the FT Mining Summit, Hambro called recent programmes reckless and said they were approved without proper process. Because BlackRock is a large holder of three of the four named companies, the criticism carries governance weight rather than being an outside opinion.

Data — what the numbers show

Four gold majors have announced buybacks worth around $12 billion: Barrick Mining, Newmont, AngloGold Ashanti and Gold Fields. BlackRock's disclosed stakes are about 12% of Newmont, 10% of AngloGold Ashanti and 6% of Gold Fields. No stake in Barrick Mining was given.

Metric	Hambro's figure
Gold price, early career	~$400/oz
Gold price, now	~$4,000/oz
Copper, early career	~60 cents/lb
Copper, now	~$6/lb
Miner use to gold	~3x
Buybacks announced	~$12B

Before and after, the metal's move is roughly tenfold and copper's roughly tenfold, from a much lower base. Hambro's point is not the multiple itself but what happened to costs alongside it.

Mining costs rising more slowly than the gold price is the mechanism behind the use. It expands margins, which is why gold shares can move about three times as much as the metal in both directions.

On portfolio construction, Hambro said wealth managers commonly held gold in the 1990s, allocations largely disappeared in the early 2000s, and they have returned at far smaller weightings than the roughly 10% often suggested. He described gold as portfolio insurance. For investors wanting pure price exposure, he pointed to physically backed gold ETFs; mining shares offer more upside plus dividends and growth.

Analysis — what it means for markets and sectors

The use claim is the load-bearing part for equities. If gold shares move roughly three times the metal, then a continued gold uptrend transmits into outsized earnings and share price moves for producers — provided cost inflation stays below the gold price. Hambro said copper producers benefit from the same dynamic, since copper sits at roughly $6 a pound against roughly 60 cents when he started.

Buybacks are where the second-order effects turn. Companies that commit to large programmes near a peak surrender the flexibility to repurchase when prices are low. Hambro said they should instead keep that optionality. Two paths follow: more flexible capital returns, or cash redirected into new mine development. Either changes the growth profile of the majors, and mine development is slower to show up in earnings than a buyback.

For bond markets, his warning that governments must pay higher interest to attract lenders points to continued upward pressure on longer-dated yields. That is a headwind for long-duration assets and a tailwind for the fiscal-debasement trade in gold.

The limitation is real: the leverage ratio is a historical relationship, not a guarantee. If rate expectations shift sharply, gold can fall, and three-times use works in both directions. Hambro acknowledged near-term volatility from monetary policy and rate expectations, while keeping the long-term trend higher.

Positioning follows the split. Investors wanting pure metal exposure have physically backed ETFs. Those wanting upside, dividends and growth have the miners. BlackRock's own stakes mean its criticism of buyback process lands inside the shareholder base, not outside it.

Outlook — what to watch next

Three things matter from here. First, whether the four majors adjust buyback structures toward flexibility or redirect cash into mine development — both are capital-allocation decisions, not quarterly results. Second, whether longer-dated government yields keep rising, which is the bond-market signal Hambro is reading. Third, whether mining cost inflation stays below the gold price, which is what preserves the roughly three-times use.

No dates were given for any of these. The gold price level near $4,000 an ounce is the reference point Hambro used, and the roughly 10% allocation figure is the benchmark he says most portfolios fall short of.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does Hambro's gold call mean for retail investors?

Hambro frames gold as portfolio insurance and says most wealth managers hold far less than the roughly 10% often suggested. For retail investors, the practical split he draws is between physically backed gold ETFs for pure price exposure and mining shares for upside plus dividends and growth. He expects near-term volatility from rate expectations but a higher long-term trend.

Why is BlackRock criticising gold miner buybacks?

Hambro called roughly $12 billion of announced buybacks reckless and said they lacked proper process. His objection is timing and flexibility: companies should be able to buy back shares when prices are low rather than committing to large programmes near a peak. BlackRock holds about 12% of Newmont, 10% of AngloGold Ashanti and 6% of Gold Fields.

Why do gold miners move three times as much as gold?

The relationship reflects operating use. When mining costs rise more slowly than the gold price, margins expand, so profits and share prices move further than the metal itself. Hambro said this roughly three-times relationship is fully intact again. It cuts both ways: a gold price decline would be amplified in the same proportion.

Bottom Line

BlackRock's Hambro is buying the fiscal-debasement case for gold and telling miners to keep buyback flexibility.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. CFD trading carries high risk of capital loss.