BlackRock: Gold Support Holds After 28% Slide From Record

Gold trades near $3,870 an ounce, roughly 28% below the record near $5,400 it set on 29 January, and BlackRock said on 10 November that the metal's structural support remains intact even as rates and the dollar work against it. Kristy Akullian, head of iShares investment strategy for the Americas, framed precious metals as a portfolio stabiliser rather than a repeat of last year's surge.

Context — why the gold pullback matters now

BlackRock's own data puts gold about 23% below its January peak by mid-October. The decline has extended since, taking the total drawdown to roughly 28%. That is the comparable the firm supplies: a correction that deepened across two quarters rather than a single sharp break.

The firm attributes the fall to the unwinding of debasement trades. Investors had bought hard assets on worries about rising government debt. As US growth rebounded, real yields rose and the dollar strengthened, that positioning reversed, and gold lost ground alongside digital assets.

The catalyst chain runs through the cost of carry. Gold pays no income, so a higher real yield and a firmer dollar raise the expense of holding it. Markets are pricing further Fed tightening, which keeps that pressure in place rather than letting it fade.

Central bank demand is the offsetting force. Official institutions hold about a fifth of all gold ever mined, and their purchases have reshaped the reserve landscape. Gold has overtaken US Treasuries as the largest share of global reserves for the first time in about three decades.

That shift matters because it changes who sets the marginal price. When official buyers absorb supply, dips meet a different bid than in a market driven only by private investors chasing momentum.

Data — what the numbers show

The scale of official buying is the core figure. Central banks bought more than 3,900 tonnes between 2022 and the first half of 2026. In a 2026 survey, a record 45% said they plan to add to their own holdings.

Gold's behaviour in risk-off months gives the stabiliser case its evidence. Since 2020, gold has returned about 2% on average in months when the S&P 500 fell more than 5%, while bonds were broadly flat.

Silver tells the opposite story on volatility. It hit a record near $118 in January and now trades around $52, more than 55% below that peak. BlackRock notes silver's swings have historically run up to twice the size of gold's.

The demand mix explains the gap. Around 60% of silver demand comes from electronics, solar and semiconductors, tying it to the industrial cycle in a way gold is not.

Metric	Gold	Silver
Level	~$3,870/oz	~$52/oz
Below January record	~28%	>55%
January record	~$5,400	~$118
Demand driver	Reserves, haven flows	~60% industrial

The reserve-share milestone is the peer comparison that matters here. Gold displacing US Treasuries as the largest slice of global reserves is a shift in official asset allocation, not a trading signal.

Analysis — what it means for markets and sectors

Second-order effects run through the industrial metals complex. Silver's exposure to electronics, solar and semiconductors means a weaker growth outlook hits it harder than gold, while a stronger one gives it more upside. Gold's demand base is far less cyclical.

Mining equities carry the operating use to both metals, but the report does not name producers or quantify margin effects, so the read-through stays directional rather than numeric.

Stablecoin issuers are a newer source of demand. Some now hold gold as reserves, a channel that did not exist in earlier cycles and that adds a private-sector buyer alongside official institutions.

The counter-argument is straightforward. BlackRock expects central bank buying to slow from its recent pace. If that slowing is sharp, the support that cushions dips weakens at the same time real yields and the dollar are pressing on prices.

Positioning follows the same split. Momentum money that rode the debasement trade has exited, and the flow now leans on reserve managers and stabiliser allocations rather than trend followers.

Outlook — what to watch next

Real yields and the dollar remain the two variables that set near-term direction. With markets pricing further Fed tightening, rallies are likely to be hard to sustain, and gold has tended to fall rather than rise when geopolitical risk lifts oil, inflation and hike expectations.

The pace of official buying is the second catalyst. BlackRock expects it to slow from the recent run rate, so the monthly reserve data from major central banks becomes the cleanest read on whether the structural bid is holding.

Silver's industrial demand is the third. Its roughly 60% exposure to electronics, solar and semiconductors means growth expectations, not rate expectations, drive the more cyclical of the two metals.

The report does not name specific price levels to watch, and no verified support or resistance is available to cite.

Frequently Asked Questions

Why did gold fall 28% from its record high?

BlackRock links the drop to the unwinding of debasement trades. Investors had bought hard assets on concerns about rising government debt. When US growth rebounded, real yields rose and the dollar strengthened, that positioning reversed. Gold pays no income, so higher real yields and a firmer dollar directly raise the cost of holding it. The firm's data showed a roughly 23% decline by mid-October, with the drawdown widening to about 28% since.

Is central bank gold buying still supporting prices?

Official institutions hold about a fifth of all gold ever mined and bought more than 3,900 tonnes between 2022 and the first half of 2026. A record 45% of central banks said in a 2026 survey they plan to add more. BlackRock still treats that as important support on dips, but expects the buying to slow from its recent pace, which would reduce the cushion.

How does silver differ from gold in this environment?

Silver is the more cyclical and riskier of the two. Around 60% of its demand comes from electronics, solar and semiconductors, so growth expectations drive it more than rate expectations. It hit a record near $118 in January and now trades around $52, more than 55% below that peak. BlackRock notes its swings have historically run up to twice the size of gold's.

Bottom Line

BlackRock sees gold's central bank support intact but expects steadier, milder returns while real yields and the dollar stay against it.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. CFD trading carries high risk of capital loss.