US NFP, ISM, EZ HICP Anchor High-Stakes June 3-7 Data Week
0h ago|4 min readStandard
Fazen Markets Editorial Desk
Collective editorial team · methodology
nonfarm-payrollsism-pmi
Fazen Markets Editorial Desk
Collective editorial team · methodology
Trades XAUUSD 24/5 on autopilot. Verified Myfxbook performance. Free forever.
Risk warning: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The majority of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs. Vortex HFT is informational software — not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
A dense calendar of top-tier economic releases for June 3-7 will provide key signals on global growth and inflation, setting the stage for upcoming central bank decisions. According to a schedule published by investinglive.com on May 30, 2026, the week’s highlights include the US ISM Manufacturing and Services PMIs, the May Nonfarm Payrolls report, and the Eurozone’s May Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP). These data points arrive as markets price in divergent monetary policy paths for the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank.
Markets are finely balanced between persistent inflation concerns and nascent signs of economic cooling. The Federal Reserve's next policy meeting on June 18 follows a string of mixed US data, keeping officials in a data-dependent stance. In the Eurozone, the May HICP release is the final major input before the ECB's June 12 meeting, where a second consecutive rate cut is widely anticipated.
The catalyst for intense market focus is the convergence of these pivotal data prints in a single week. A hotter-than-expected US payrolls or CPI report could swiftly unwind market expectations for Fed easing in 2026. Conversely, weak ISM data could bolster the case for earlier intervention. For the ECB, any upside surprise in HICP could challenge the projected pace of its cutting cycle.
Historically, NFP surprises of +/-100k jobs have triggered immediate volatility in the US dollar and Treasury yields. The last major data dump in early May 2026, which featured strong payrolls and sticky CPI, pushed the 10-year Treasury yield up 22 basis points over three sessions. The current macro backdrop sees the US 10-year yield at 4.31% and the S&P 500 index consolidating near record highs.
The week’s data provides a comprehensive snapshot of economic momentum. The US ISM Manufacturing PMI for May is the opening act, with the prior April reading at 49.2, indicating its sixteenth month in contraction territory below the 50 expansion/contraction threshold. Consensus expects a slight improvement to 49.8. The more critical ISM Services PMI follows, last printed at 53.7 in April, reflecting continued expansion in the dominant services sector.
The US labor market remains the primary focus. The May Nonfarm Payrolls consensus forecast centers on +185,000 new jobs, a moderation from April’s +253,000. The unemployment rate is expected to hold at 3.9%, while Average Hourly Earnings growth is projected at 0.3% month-on-month. This compares to the 2024 monthly average job gain of approximately 225,000.
For the Eurozone, the flash HICP estimate for May is projected to show headline inflation accelerating to 2.5% year-on-year from 2.4% in April. Core HICP, excluding food and energy, is expected to hold steady at 2.7%. The region’s Q1 GDP third estimate and final Q1 employment change data will also be released, with preliminary figures showing quarterly GDP growth of 0.3%.
| Metric | Prior Reading (Apr) | Consensus Forecast (May) |
|---|---|---|
| US NFP | +253k | +185k |
| US Unemployment Rate | 3.9% | 3.9% |
| US ISM Services PMI | 53.7 | 53.5 |
| EZ HICP (YoY) | 2.4% | 2.5% |
Strong US data, particularly on wages and services activity, would support the US dollar (DXY) and pressure rate-sensitive growth stocks. Treasury yields would rise, weighing on sectors like utilities (XLU) and real estate (XLRE). Conversely, weak ISM and payrolls figures would boost bonds, potentially fueling a rally in the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) as rate cut odds repriced higher. The 2-year Treasury note, highly sensitive to Fed policy, would see outsized moves.
In Europe, a HICP print at or above 2.5% could stall the euro’s recent weakness and pressure European equities (STOXX 50), particularly banks which benefit from steeper yield curves. A benign print would reinforce the ECB’s dovish path, supporting peripheral bonds. The Canadian jobs report on Friday will directly impact the Canadian dollar (CAD/USD); a strong print could lead the Bank of Canada to signal a pause after its expected June cut.
A key risk to this analysis is that markets may have already priced in a Goldilocks scenario of moderating growth and inflation. Positioning data shows speculative net shorts on the US dollar are near yearly highs, leaving the currency vulnerable to a short-covering rally on strong data. Flow analysis indicates funds have been rotating into defensive sectors like consumer staples (XLP) ahead of the data deluge.
Immediate market reactions will set the tone for trading into the mid-June central bank meetings. Watch the 4.25%-4.40% range on the US 10-year Treasury yield; a sustained break above 4.40% would signal a more hawkish repricing. For the S&P 500, key support resides at its 50-day moving average near 5,300.
The subsequent catalysts are clearly defined. The ECB announces its policy decision on June 12, followed by the Federal Reserve’s FOMC statement and updated Summary of Economic Projections on June 18. The US CPI report for May, released on June 11, will be the final major input before the Fed meeting and could overshadow the prior week’s data.
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the Employment Situation report, which includes Nonfarm Payrolls, at 8:30 AM Eastern Time on the first Friday of each month. The data for May 2026 will be published on Friday, June 6. The simultaneous release includes the unemployment rate, average hourly earnings, and labor force participation rate, creating a volatile moment for forex, equity, and bond markets.
The ISM Services PMI, published by the Institute for Supply Management, surveys purchasing managers across the US services sector. It is a diffusion index where a reading above 50 indicates expansion. The S&P Global US Services PMI, released earlier in the month, surveys a different panel and uses a slightly different methodology. The ISM index is historically more influential for US market sentiment and Federal Reserve policy assessments.
Vortex HFT is our free MT4/MT5 Expert Advisor. Verified Myfxbook performance. No subscription. No fees. Trades 24/5.
Position yourself for the macro moves discussed above
Start TradingSponsored
Open a demo account in 30 seconds. No deposit required.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.