Senators Scott and Hagerty Propose Bill to Limit Foreign Adversary AI Access

Senators Tim Scott (R-S.C.) and Bill Hagerty (R-Tenn.) introduced legislation on June 30, 2026, designed to empower the federal government to block foreign adversaries from accessing advanced U.S. artificial intelligence technology. The bill represents a significant legislative effort to create formal defensive tools for safeguarding sensitive AI systems. It follows the senators' successful bipartisan passage of the cryptocurrency-focused GENIUS Act earlier in the 2026 congressional session. The proposal arrives as global competition for AI supremacy intensifies among major world powers.

Context — [why this matters now]

The legislative push occurs amid heightened geopolitical tensions and a persistent technology trade war between the United States and China. In October 2022, the U.S. Department of Commerce's Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) imposed sweeping export controls on advanced computing semiconductors and semiconductor manufacturing equipment destined for China. Those controls specifically targeted the hardware enabling cutting-edge AI development. The new bill appears designed to expand this regulatory framework to cover the AI models and software algorithms themselves, closing a perceived gap in existing policy.

Current U.S. policy relies on a patchwork of executive orders and agency-specific regulations to manage AI-related national security risks. Executive Order 14110, signed in October 2023, established initial standards for AI safety and security but did not create broad new statutory authorities for blocking technology exports. The Scott-Hagerty bill signals a move toward a more comprehensive, congressionally mandated approach. This shift is critical as AI systems become more powerful and integrated into defense, intelligence, and critical infrastructure networks.

The immediate catalyst is the rapid commercialization of generative AI and large language models capable of dual-use applications. Intelligence community assessments have repeatedly highlighted the risk of adversarial nations using American-developed AI to enhance their military capabilities, automate cyberattacks, or conduct mass disinformation campaigns. The bill's introduction aligns with the upcoming expiration of certain provisions in the existing International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), which provides the executive branch with its primary authority for imposing economic sanctions.

Data — [what the numbers show]

The global AI market is projected to exceed $1.8 trillion by 2030, underscoring the economic stakes of controlling key technologies. U.S. companies currently hold an estimated 60% share of the global AI market by revenue. In 2025, venture capital investment into U.S. AI startups totaled $48.2 billion, nearly double the $25.1 billion invested in Chinese AI firms.

Major U.S. technology firms are deeply invested in AI research and development. Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) spent $45.3 billion on R&D in 2025, a significant portion dedicated to AI. Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) committed over $13 billion to its partnership with OpenAI. Nvidia Corporation (NVDA), whose chips are essential for training AI models, reported data center revenue of $47.5 billion in its most recent fiscal year. These financial figures highlight the concentrated economic power that the proposed legislation seeks to protect.

Metric	United States	China	European Union
Top AI Research Papers (2025)	4,210	3,850	2,910
AI Patent Filings (2025)	12,450	18,110	8,950
Private AI Investment (2025, USD Billions)	$48.2	$25.1	$14.5

The U.S. government's own investment in AI is also substantial. The White House's fiscal year 2027 budget request includes $3.2 billion for non-defense AI research and development across civilian agencies. The Department of Defense's budget request earmarks an additional $1.8 billion specifically for AI and machine learning applications. This state-level investment further incentivizes the creation of strong intellectual property protection mechanisms.

Analysis — [what it means for markets / sectors / tickers]

The proposed legislation would create a bifurcated market for AI technology, separating access for allied nations from that of designated foreign adversaries. U.S. cloud computing providers like Amazon Web Services (AMZN), Microsoft Azure (MSFT), and Google Cloud (GOOGL) would face new compliance requirements when offering AI-as-a-service to international customers. These firms may experience short-term revenue headwinds in restricted markets but could see long-term benefits from solidified U.S. technological leadership and increased domestic demand.

Pure-play AI software companies, such as those developing foundational models, would operate under a clearer but more restrictive regulatory framework. This could slow the pace of international expansion but potentially reduce intellectual property theft risks. The defense sector, including companies like Palantir Technologies (PLTR) and Anduril Industries, stands to benefit as government contracts for secure, homegrown AI solutions likely increase. Semiconductor capital equipment makers like Applied Materials (AMAT) and KLA Corporation (KLAC) may see sustained demand for tools used in domestic chip fabrication, aligning with the CHIPS Act's objectives.

A significant risk is that overly broad restrictions could inadvertently hamper open-source AI research collaborations with allied nations' academics and institutions, stifling innovation. It could also provoke retaliatory measures from trading partners, affecting U.S. exporters in unrelated sectors. Market positioning data from futures and options markets indicates increased hedging activity in the Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLK) following the bill's announcement. Flow-tracking analysts note a slight rotation into defense and cybersecurity ETFs, suggesting investors are pricing in a higher probability of enacted controls.

Outlook — [what to watch next]

The bill will be referred to the Senate Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs Committee, where its passage is not guaranteed. Key watchpoints include mark-up sessions scheduled for late July 2026 and potential amendments that could dilute or strengthen its provisions. Bipartisan support will be critical; observe whether Democratic senators on the committee, such as Mark Warner (D-Va.) and Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio), co-sponsor the legislation or propose a companion bill.

The White House's statement on the proposal, expected within 30 days, will signal the administration's appetite for this legislative approach versus relying on executive authority. The Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) and the Commerce Department's BIS will be the key agencies responsible for implementation if the bill becomes law. Their technical input during the legislative process will shape the final scope of the controls.

Market participants should monitor the Nasdaq-100 Index (NDX) for volatility tied to regulatory uncertainty for mega-cap tech. A decisive break below its 100-day moving average, currently near 19,200, could indicate escalating investor concern. Conversely, a sustained move above 19,800 would suggest the market views the bill as a manageable risk. The iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA) is another key indicator; a breakout above $135 would signal expectations of increased defense sector appropriations linked to AI sovereignty.

Frequently Asked Questions