Mowi Q1: Record Harvest Offsets Weaker Salmon Prices

Mowi reported a quarter of contrasting dynamics: a record Q1 harvest that buoyed volumes and throughput, set against weaker average salmon prices that compressed per-kilo realizations. According to the company's Q1 results reported via Investing.com on 13 May 2026, Mowi recorded a Q1 harvest of 83,400 tonnes, up 22% year-on-year, while average selling prices fell approximately 15% YoY to NOK 52/kg, pressuring gross margin per kilo. The net outcome was a modest rise in underlying earnings metrics but a clear signal that volume gains and cost control, rather than price power, drove the headline beat. For institutional investors monitoring protein supply dynamics and commodity-like price swings in aquaculture, the Q1 release refocuses attention on seasonality, biological cycles and currency effects that will determine H2 profitability.

Context

The Q1 results arrive against a backdrop of elevated global salmon supply and softer spot prices through late 2025 and early 2026. Global farmed salmon production has been growing, with several large producers expanding capacity; Mowi's record Q1 harvest of 83,400 tonnes (reported 13 May 2026, Investing.com) is emblematic of that trend and mirrors capacity utilization increases seen across Norway. Relative to peer SalMar and Lerøy, which also flagged higher production in recent quarters, Mowi's operational scale meant it both benefited from fixed-cost dilution and was exposed to downward price pressure when demand softened.

Seasonality and biological timing remain key context for the results. Q1 typically captures the end of winter-growing cycles in Norway and the ramp-up of harvestable biomass; this year the company reported harvest scheduling that brought forward volumes into the quarter. Currency effects also played a role: with sales invoiced largely in EUR and GBP but costs in NOK, the exchange-rate path since late 2025 influenced reported NOK realizations. Investors should note that the Q1 snapshot is not a full-year guide: Mowi and peers cite cages turnover, smolt output and lice-treatment schedules that can materially shift quarter-to-quarter performance.

Finally, the company's disclosure on costs and by-product streams is material to interpreting margins. Mowi indicated (Investing.com, 13 May 2026) that feed cost trends and processing efficiencies offset part of the price decline, while value-add channels such as smoked and portioned products continued to deliver higher margin mix. That mix effect helps explain why operating earnings rose despite weaker per-kilo pricing, and it will determine how resilient margins are if prices remain depressed into H2.

Data Deep Dive

The Q1 headline numbers are a study in offsetting forces. Mowi's reported harvest of 83,400 tonnes represented a 22% YoY increase (Investing.com, 13 May 2026), which drove higher sales volumes and revenue growth even as the average selling price moved lower. The company reported average realized price of NOK 52/kg in the quarter, down roughly 15% from the prior-year quarter, a move that tracks the spot market decline observed on key European trading desks. On a revenue line, Mowi disclosed Q1 revenues of NOK 7.8bn, an increase of 6% YoY, while adjusted EBITDA was reported at NOK 2.1bn, up around 4% YoY, reflecting the leverage of volumes and cost containment.

Breaking down margins, the gross profit per kilo contracted due to lower prices but was partly recovered by lower feed costs and higher by-product returns. Feed input cost indices fell c.5-8% in the same period (procurement data, Q1 2026), helping to blunt margin erosion. In processing and sales channels, Mowi's greater mix into value-added products increased realized margins in the consumer segments compared with commodity fresh salmon sales: portioned and smoked lines delivered a mid-single-digit margin premium versus fresh filets. This divergence suggests that margin resilience will be linked to the company's ability to shift mix toward higher-value SKUs as spot prices for commodity salmon remain volatile.

Compare these outcomes with peers: SalMar and Lerøy published Q1 updates indicating harvest rises of 18-25% respectively, but with varying price mixes and different regional exposure (Norway vs global wholesale). Mowi's scale gave it a better headline ability to absorb cost shocks, but its exposure to the European retail market makes it more sensitive to continent-wide demand fluctuations. Investors tracking relative performance should therefore look at per-kilo earnings (NOK/kg) and channel mix rather than headline revenue alone.

Sector Implications

Mowi's quarter is a useful barometer for the broader farmed salmon sector as it illustrates how volume expansion can mute price declines — at least in the near term. From a supply-side perspective, if Q2 and H2 biological cycles continue to deliver higher biomass across Norway, Scotland and Canada, then industry-wide pressure on prices could persist into late 2026. Conversely, disease events, tighter smolt-to-harvest conversion or supply-reducing biosecurity issues could create episodic price spikes; market participants should price in this asymmetry when constructing scenarios.

Demand dynamics remain key. European retail demand, which absorbs a large portion of Norwegian-origin salmon, has shown elasticity with respect to price and promotion cycles. If retail promotion intensity increases to clear inventories, average realized prices could fall further even as volumes improve. On the other hand, growth in foodservice reopening in certain markets and continued substitution from higher-cost proteins (e.g., beef) through 2026 could offset some of the price pressure.

From a capital markets angle, Mowi's cash flow generation and net-debt position will be watched closely. The company has used scale to invest in processing automation and R&D for disease control; continuing to fund that capex while maintaining dividend policy will shape investor returns. For comparative valuation, Mowi's EV/EBITDA multiple should be evaluated versus SalMar and Lerøy on a normalized 12-month basis, adjusting for expected harvest schedules and currency exposures.

Risk Assessment

Downside price risk remains the principal near-term issue. A 15% decline in average prices in Q1 (Investing.com, 13 May 2026) materially compresses margins for lower-margin commodity lines, and a further price softening into Q2 would put pressure on cash conversion. Operational risks—lice management, ISA incidents, and slippage in smolt quality—are perennial in aquaculture and can quickly reverse the harvest-growth narrative. Mowi's scale helps mitigate idiosyncratic farm-level issues, but systemic biological events would affect the whole sector.

Currency and input-cost risks are secondary but non-negligible. The NOK exchange rate versus EUR and GBP materially affects reported revenues and margins: a 5% move in NOK/EUR can swing reported profits by double-digit percentages for a single quarter depending on hedging. Feed and energy costs similarly retain the potential to erode margins if commodity inputs reprice higher; while feed indices declined in Q1, the trajectory through H2 2026 will depend on grain markets and freight costs.

Regulatory and ESG/market-access risks also warrant attention. Stricter environmental rules in Norway and Scotland, if enacted, could raise compliance costs and cap expansion plans; conversely, certification and higher welfare standards can unlock premium channels. Investors must model scenarios that incorporate both increased compliance spend and potential price premiums for certified higher-welfare product lines.

Fazen Markets Perspective

Our view diverges from a simple volume-first read of the quarter. While record harvests demonstrate operational execution, the critical question for medium-term returns is whether Mowi can sustainably convert higher volumes into higher free cash flow per share once price normalization occurs. We see two non-obvious levers: first, accelerated product mix shift into higher-margin value-added SKUs could materially raise realized margin by 150-300 bps over 12 months if go-to-market rollout and logistics scale are executed; second, targeted hedging of currency and certain commodity inputs can reduce headline volatility and thereby compress the risk premium demanded by equity investors.

We also highlight capital allocation as an underappreciated driver. If the company prioritizes M&A to consolidate regional processing capabilities or invests in disease-control technologies that raise effective survival rates by a few percentage points, the unit economics could shift favorably—this would be a source of asymmetric upside relative to peers. Conversely, returning excessive cash via dividends in an environment of uncertain prices would increase equity risk if subsequent price declines erode earnings. Institutional investors should therefore interrogate management's medium-term allocation roadmap in addition to the quarter's numbers.

For portfolio construction, Mowi's Q1 suggests an idiosyncratic play on supply management and product mix, rather than a pure commodity bet. Investors focusing on stable cash yield should adjust assumptions for price volatility and model a range of per-kg price outcomes. For those interested in thematic exposure (protein transition, sustainable aquaculture), monitor certification, by-product commercialization and R&D milestones as catalysts that may de-risk the equity over a 12–24 month horizon. For deeper analysis see our sector research hub at Fazen Markets and related equities coverage at Fazen Markets equities.

Bottom Line

Mowi's Q1 — published 13 May 2026 — underscores a trade-off between record harvest volumes (83,400t, +22% YoY) and a roughly 15% decline in average prices; volume growth supported earnings, but price dynamics dictate medium-term upside. Investors should focus on mix, cost trends and capital allocation as primary levers for value creation.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

FAQ

Q: What practical indicators should investors watch next quarter?

A: Monitor reported harvest volumes, average realized NOK/kg, feed-cost indices and the NOK/EUR exchange rate. A sustained recovery in average realized price over two consecutive quarters would materially alter earnings trajectories; management guidance on harvest scheduling and by-product returns is also a leading indicator.

Q: How has Mowi historically performed through price cycles?

A: Historically, Mowi's scale has helped it outperform smaller peers during downturns through cost dilution and diversified product channels, but it has also been more exposed to European retail swings. In prior multi-quarter price troughs (2016–2017 and 2020), the company leaned on value-added channels and export mix to protect margins, a pattern worth benchmarking against current disclosure.

Q: Are there contrarian scenarios that could lead to outsized upside?

A: Yes. A biologically-driven supply constraint (improved survival, lower lice incidence) coinciding with stronger foodservice demand could create a sharper-than-expected price recovery. Additionally, successful commercialization of higher-margin downstream products or accretive M&A could re-rate the multiple if sustained EBIT improvements follow.