Morgan Stanley Predicts SpaceX Revenue Will Hit $3.4 Trillion By 2040

Morgan Stanley analysts published a SpaceX Valuation Revised Down 75% by Top Professor to $180 Billion">valuation model on 5 June 2026 projecting SpaceX revenue will reach $3.4 trillion by the year 2040. The report, detailed by Seeking Alpha, outlines a multi-decade growth runway for the private space firm, anchored by its Starlink satellite broadband division and future interplanetary ambitions. The forecast implies a significant re-rating of the total addressable market for the global space economy, which consultants at BryceTech currently value at approximately $630 billion. Morgan Stanley shares traded at $218.27 as of 12:49 UTC today, a gain of 1.53% for the session, within a daily range of $211.49 to $219.16.

Context — [why this matters now]

The projection arrives as investor focus intensifies on the monetization pathways for private space ventures beyond government contracts. The last major benchmark for space industry valuation was the public listing of Virgin Orbit in 2025, which debuted with a market capitalization just under $4 billion and has since faced significant challenges. In contrast, SpaceX has secured over $10 billion in launch service contracts from NASA and the U.S. Department of Defense since 2020, establishing a durable revenue floor.

The current macro backdrop features elevated interest rates, with the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield holding above 4.5%, which typically pressures long-duration growth narratives. This makes the scale of Morgan Stanley's 14-year forecast particularly notable, as it assumes SpaceX can defy traditional capital cost headwinds through massive cash flow generation. The immediate catalyst for the report is likely the accelerating global rollout of Starlink's direct-to-cell phone service, which began commercial trials in early 2026.

Regulatory approvals in key markets, including a recent green light from the European Telecommunications Standards Institute, have cleared a major hurdle. This removes a primary uncertainty that had constrained earlier analyst models, allowing for more aggressive user adoption and average revenue per user (ARPU) assumptions. The firm's successful Starship test flights in 2025, demonstrating rapid reusability, also provided tangible evidence supporting lower-cost launch assumptions critical to the long-term model.

Data — [what the numbers show]

The $3.4 trillion revenue figure represents a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) that far exceeds conventional technology or industrial sector benchmarks. For context, Apple, the world's largest publicly traded company by revenue, reported $410 billion in sales for its 2025 fiscal year. Reaching Morgan Stanley's target would require SpaceX to generate revenue equivalent to over eight Apple corporations within 14 years. The forecast implies SpaceX would capture a dominant share of a global space economy that is itself projected to grow to between $1.5 trillion and $2.7 trillion by 2040 according to various consultancy reports.

Metric	2025 Estimate	2040 Projection	Implied Growth
Total SpaceX Revenue	~$35 Billion	$3,400 Billion	~9,614%
Starlink Subscribers	~4 Million	~500 Million (est.)	~12,400%
Global Launch Market Share	~65%	~80% (est.)	~23% increase

Morgan Stanley's own equity performance provides a market reference. The bank's stock is up 1.53% on the day of the report to $218.27, outperforming the S&P 500 index's year-to-date return of approximately 8.5%. The bank's 52-week trading range spans from a low of $187.11 to a high of $232.40, with the current price near the upper bound. The $3.4 trillion figure is not a standalone market cap target but a revenue projection, which would translate to a valuation multiple dependent on future margins.

Historical precedent for such growth is limited. Amazon's revenue grew from roughly $34 billion in 2010 to $590 billion in 2025, a factor of 17x over 15 years. The SpaceX model envisions a nearly 100x expansion from its estimated 2025 base. The model likely segments revenue into core pillars: Starlink broadband, launch services, Starship point-to-point travel, and potential off-world resource utilization. Each segment carries distinct margin profiles and capital intensity, which the consolidated figure aggregates.

Analysis — [what it means for markets / sectors / tickers]

The single most significant second-order effect is the potential validation of the entire satellite and space infrastructure supply chain. Publicly traded companies providing components, such as ViaSat (VSAT) for terminals, Lockheed Martin (LMT) for specialized avionics, and Mynaric (MYNA.DE) for laser communication terminals, could see upward revisions to their own long-term order forecasts. Terrestrial telecom providers like AT&T (T) and Verizon (VZ) face a more complex dynamic, as Starlink presents both a competitive threat in rural areas and a potential partnership opportunity for backhaul.

A key limitation of the analysis is its dependency on regulatory continuity across nearly 200 national jurisdictions for spectrum and landing rights. Political shifts or the emergence of national champion competitors could fragment the global market assumption underpinning the subscriber growth model. the projection assumes no major technological disruptions, such as breakthroughs in competing low-Earth orbit (LEO) constellations or terrestrial 6G networks, that could alter the competitive landscape.

Positioning flow based on this report is initially indirect, as SpaceX remains privately held. Investment is channeled through public equity proxies like the ARK Space Exploration & Innovation ETF (ARKX), which holds stakes in related companies, and venture capital firms with late-stage stakes in SpaceX itself, such as Founders Fund and Alphabet. Short interest is likely concentrated in traditional geostationary satellite operators like SES (SESG.PA) and Intelsat, which face direct margin pressure from SpaceX's lower-cost launch and constellation model. The flow of capital into private space startups may accelerate, seeking the next SpaceX in adjacent niches like space manufacturing or debris removal.

Outlook — [what to watch next]

Three immediate catalysts will test the feasibility of the trajectory. First, SpaceX's planned Starlink initial public offering (IPO), tentatively slated for late 2027 or 2028, will provide the first transparent market valuation against these projections. Second, the Federal Communications Commission's (FCC) decision on Spectrum Sharing for the 12 GHz band, expected by Q1 2027, will dictate Starlink's network capacity and performance ceilings in the United States. Third, the outcome of the NASA Artemis III crewed lunar landing contract, where SpaceX's Starship is the sole selected lander, will be decided by the 2028 presidential administration's budget requests.