Goldman: Gulf Oil Exports Double, Match 2025 Average

Goldman Sachs estimates that Persian Gulf oil exports, including so-called dark exports, have returned to their 2025 average after doubling in September. Brent settled down circa 2.5% at around $103 a barrel on Tuesday, while WTI closed at around $89 on Wednesday and remains on course for a third straight monthly gain. Saudi Arabia led the recovery and lifted shipments above its 2025 average, while Iran shipped no crude by sea during the month, the bank said. The estimate gives fresh weight to the supply-recovery theme now pressing on crude prices.

Context — why the Gulf export recovery matters now

The recovery matters because it reverses the deepest disruption of the year. Goldman had estimated in late August that crude and oil product exports from the region had climbed back to around two-thirds of pre-war levels, at 15 million to 16 million barrels per day. That was well above the trough of 5 million to 6 million barrels per day recorded in March, but still 7 million to 8 million below levels before the war began. September's doubling closes most of that remaining gap.

The bank argued in that same late-August note that rising dark flows could moderate the upside for crude prices even if Middle East disruption lasts longer. Dark exports are cargoes carried by tankers that switch off their satellite transponders, which makes flows through the Strait of Hormuz hard to measure. Goldman has said the increase in such crossings, alongside more ship-to-ship transfers, shows producers and shippers adapting to the conflict rather than retreating from it.

Physical evidence supports the estimate. Saudi Arabia resumed tanker loadings from its Red Sea port of Yanbu after restarting the East-West Pipeline, and Kpler data showed crude exports from Middle East producers rebounding in September to around 16 million barrels per day, the highest since the war began in late February.

Policy has added supply. The US Department of Energy offered up to 40 million barrels from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve, a release that stacks on top of the Gulf rebound.

Data — what the numbers show

The scale of the swing is best seen against the March trough. Gulf exports ran at 5 million to 6 million barrels per day in March, recovered to 15 million to 16 million by late August, and have now doubled again in September to match the 2025 average. Saudi shipments cleared their 2025 average; Iran's seaborne crude exports registered zero.

Period	Gulf crude and product exports
March trough	5m-6m bpd
Late August	15m-16m bpd
September	2025 average restored

Kpler's September figure of around 16 million barrels per day for Middle East producers is the highest since the war began in late February, confirming the direction of travel independently of Goldman's own tracking.

Price action has followed the supply news. Brent settled down circa 2.5% at around $103 on Tuesday, with WTI closing at around $89. Brent is still on course for a monthly gain in double digits, which tells you the market has not abandoned its risk premium entirely — it has simply stopped adding to it. WTI sitting below $90 keeps the US benchmark in a range it has held through the month, and both contracts remain on track for a third consecutive monthly advance.

Analysis — what it means for markets and sectors

The second-order effects run through the product complex rather than crude itself. Goldman argued in the late-August note that refined products and European gas carried more upside than crude in a persistent disruption. That view fits the market's current focus on diesel, where the White House has urged the European Union to draw on its diesel emergency stocks to lower global prices. Distillate tightness, not crude supply, is where the marginal stress sits.

For equities, the read-through is mixed. Lower crude input costs support transport, airlines and chemicals, while energy producers lose the tailwind of a rising flat price. The absence of Iranian barrels keeps a floor under medium sour differentials, which favours refiners configured for heavier grades.

One clear limitation on the bullish supply story: Goldman gave no reason for Iran's absence from seaborne crude exports. The US naval blockade is central to Iran's demands in the stalled diplomacy. Qatari mediation this week made little progress, and US officials think President Donald Trump could order a return to major combat operations after the midterms. Trump has said he offered Iran nothing to end the war.

Positioning reflects that tension. Traders have trimmed length in crude futures as the recovery theme builds, but the double-digit monthly gain in Brent shows the exit has been orderly rather than a rush for the doors. Flow is rotating toward product cracks and away from outright crude length.

Outlook — what to watch next

Three catalysts matter. First, whether Gulf exports keep rising past the 2025 average or plateau — a second consecutive monthly increase would harden the bearish crude case. Second, whether Iran's seaborne absence persists, since any return of those barrels would add supply and any escalation would remove it. Third, whether the stalled US-Iran talks break down, given the reported possibility of a return to major combat operations after the midterms.

On levels, Brent around $103 and WTI around $89 are the reference points the market is trading against. A sustained move below $89 in WTI would signal the recovery trade has taken control; a break back above $103 in Brent would suggest the diplomatic tail risk is being repriced. Diesel cracks and European gas remain the places where disruption would show up first.

Frequently Asked Questions

What are dark exports in oil markets?

Dark exports are cargoes carried by tankers that turn off their satellite transponders, which makes them difficult to track through chokepoints such as the Strait of Hormuz. Goldman Sachs has argued that the rise in such crossings, together with more ship-to-ship transfers, shows producers and shippers adapting to the conflict. Because the vessels are hard to monitor, dark flows complicate any estimate of true Gulf export volumes.

Why did Iran ship no crude by sea in September?

Goldman's estimate showed Iran with zero seaborne crude exports for the month, but the bank gave no reason for the absence. The US naval blockade is central to Iran's demands in the stalled diplomacy, and Qatari mediation this week made little progress. US officials reportedly think President Donald Trump could order a return to major combat operations after the midterms.

What does the Gulf export recovery mean for diesel prices?

Goldman said refined products and European gas had more upside than crude in a persistent disruption, which puts diesel at the centre of the current market focus. The White House has urged the European Union to draw on its diesel emergency stocks to lower global prices. Rising Gulf crude supply does not automatically ease distillate tightness, since refinery configuration and product yields drive that market separately.

Bottom Line

Gulf supply has normalised on paper, but Iran's missing barrels and stalled diplomacy keep a live risk premium in crude.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. CFD trading carries high risk of capital loss.