Goldman: Gulf Oil Exports Back to 22-23 mb/d, Dated Brent Stays High

Oil exports from the Persian Gulf have climbed back to roughly normal levels, yet the physical crude price that buyers actually pay remains near record highs. Goldman Sachs estimates Gulf exports, including dark exports, recovered to 22 to 23 million barrels per day over the past two weeks, in line with their 2025 average. Physical Dated Brent was recently near $120 a barrel, well above futures. The weekend's Houthi claims of strikes on Saudi Aramco facilities now test the barrels that led the recovery.

Context — Why Gulf Export Normalisation Matters Now

Goldman's base case still has Brent easing to $85 by year-end and $80 in 2027. That forecast sits against a physical market pricing war risk, so the gap between flows and prices is the central tension for anyone holding energy exposure.

The comparable the bank itself gives is September's risk premium. Goldman estimates the risk premium embedded in Brent spreads averaged $22 a barrel in September, the second-highest monthly level on record and above the peak seen during the 2022 Russia-Ukraine war.

That is the backdrop for the flow recovery. Crude volumes have normalised, but the premium that buyers pay for prompt barrels has not compressed, because inventories outside OECD commercial stocks sit at record lows.

Goldman attributes the physical strength to two forces: fear that escalation damages long-term production, and the scramble to rebuild depleted stockpiles. Neither is resolved by higher export volumes alone.

The catalyst chain runs from the flow data to the weekend headlines. Saudi Arabia led the export recovery, so the Houthi claims land directly on the barrels underpinning the rebound. Any confirmed disruption would widen the physical premium again.

Data — What the Numbers Show

The flow and price data point in opposite directions. Goldman's 22-23 mb/d estimate includes dark exports — cargoes on tankers that switch off satellite transponders — which it put at roughly 5 million barrels per day in September.

JPMorgan, using a more conservative approach, put recent Gulf exports at about 89% of 2025 levels. Most of the gap between the two banks comes down to how much of the dark fleet is counted.

Metric	Recent	Reference
Gulf exports (Goldman)	22-23 mb/d	2025 average
Gulf exports (JPMorgan)	~89% of 2025	2025 average
Saudi crude exports	~12 mb/d	more than doubled in Sept
Dated Brent	~$120/bbl	above futures
Brent spread risk premium	$22/bbl	Sept average

The composition of the recovery matters. Crude exports climbed above their 2025 average in late September, with Saudi shipments more than doubling during the month to nearly 12 million barrels per day and the UAE also exporting above normal. Satellite data showed no seaborne crude exports from Iran.

Refined products are the weak spot. Exports of diesel, gasoline and jet fuel remain around half of normal levels, which Goldman attributes to elevated regional refinery outages and the greater risk smaller product tankers face carrying more flammable cargo.

Analysis — What It Means for Markets and Sectors

The split between crude and products is where the second-order effects land. Normalising crude supply pressures benchmark futures over time, but the product shortfall keeps diesel and jet cracks supported even as crude volumes recover.

For refiners, that combination is unusually favourable: feedstock availability improves while product scarcity holds margins. The report does not give specific crack levels, so the direction is the tradeable signal rather than a precise number.

Equity exposure splits along the same line. Integrated majors with Gulf production, including the Saudi barrels that led the recovery, carry headline risk from the weekend claims. Product-heavy refiners sit on the other side of the same tension.

The counter-argument is that the physical premium is a fear trade that unwinds quickly. If no disruption is confirmed, the $22-a-barrel spread premium has room to compress toward normal levels, and the backwardation that has kept the front of the curve steep would flatten.

Positioning reflects that uncertainty. Buyers are paying up for prompt barrels to rebuild inventories, which is the definition of a market long physical and short patience. The flow is into near-dated cargoes rather than futures, which is why Dated Brent holds near $120 while the bank's year-end target sits at $85.

Outlook — What to Watch Next

The immediate test is the Houthi claims against Saudi Aramco facilities. Goldman warns that renewed escalation could push prices sharply higher, so confirmation or denial of damage is the first catalyst.

Product exports are the second. Diesel, gasoline and jet fuel flows stuck near half of normal levels would keep refined-product margins supported and slow any normalisation in the wider complex.

Third is the dark fleet count. If JPMorgan's more conservative 89% reading proves closer to reality than Goldman's 22-23 mb/d, the volume recovery is smaller than headline flows suggest.

On levels, the report names Dated Brent near $120 and the September spread premium at $22 a barrel as the reference points. Goldman's $85 year-end and $80 2027 targets mark where the bank expects the physical premium to fade. Neither is a prediction of timing.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is Dated Brent and why is it above futures?

Dated Brent is the spot price for physical North Sea cargoes loading on specific dates, rather than the front-month futures contract. The report notes the spot premium over futures normally is narrow, but in early April it exceeded $25 a barrel. The current gap reflects buyers paying up for prompt barrels to rebuild record-low inventories outside OECD commercial stocks, plus fear that escalation could damage long-term production.

Why do Goldman and JPMorgan disagree on Gulf export volumes?

The difference comes down to dark exports — cargoes carried by tankers that switch off satellite transponders, making them hard to track. Goldman estimated those flows at around 5 million barrels per day in September, which lifts its total to 22-23 mb/d. JPMorgan used a more conservative approach and put recent Gulf exports at about 89% of 2025 levels.

Why are refined product exports lagging crude?

Goldman attributes the gap to two factors. Regional refinery outages are elevated, limiting how much diesel, gasoline and jet fuel can be produced for export. Smaller product tankers also face greater risk carrying more flammable cargo, which discourages some shipping. Those flows remain around half of normal levels even as crude exports climb above their 2025 average.

Bottom Line

Gulf barrels are flowing again, but buyers keep paying war prices until the Houthi claims are resolved.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. CFD trading carries high risk of capital loss.