Fujimori Holds Narrow Lead in Peru Presidential Runoff Polls

Right-wing candidate Keiko Fujimori holds a narrow 1.2 percentage point lead over socialist rival Pedro Castillo one week before Peru's presidential runoff election, according to polling data aggregated on 31 May 2026. The final surveys before the 7 June vote indicate a margin of 50.6% to 49.4%, a difference well within the margin of error. This marks a significant tightening from Fujimori's 3.8-point advantage measured in mid-May, setting the stage for a highly contested outcome with immediate implications for Peruvian asset prices and mining sector exposure.

Context — why this matters now

Peru is the world's second-largest copper producer and a major supplier of zinc, silver, and gold to global markets. The election's outcome will determine policy direction for a $265 billion economy still recovering from a deep pandemic-induced recession. The last presidential election in 2021, also between Fujimori and Castillo, resulted in a 0.25-point victory margin that triggered weeks of protests and legal challenges, causing the Peruvian sol to depreciate 9% against the US dollar in the subsequent month.

The current macro backdrop features elevated copper prices at $9,800 per tonne, providing a fiscal tailwind, but Peru's central bank has held its policy rate at 6.25% to combat persistent inflation. The triggering event for recent poll volatility was Castillo's strong performance in the final televised debate on 28 May, where he moderated his rhetoric on mining nationalization. This shift may have swayed undecided voters in key mining regions, narrowing Fujimori's lead.

Data — what the numbers show

Four major polling firms show Fujimori's support ranging from 49.8% to 51.1%, with Castillo between 48.9% and 50.2%. The average lead has compressed from 3.8 points on 15 May to 1.2 points on 31 May. The Peruvian sol (PEN) has weakened 2.4% against the US dollar since the debate, trading from 3.68 to 3.77. Implied volatility on USD/PEN options expiring post-election has surged to 18%, nearly double the 30-day average of 9.7%.

The IPSOS poll gives Fujimori 50.5% versus Castillo's 49.5%, while IEP shows 51.1% to 48.9%. The mining-heavy Lima Stock Exchange Index has declined 4.2% year-to-date, underperforming the MSCI Emerging Markets Latin America Index's 1.8% gain. Southern Copper Corporation (SCCO), which derives 42% of its operating income from Peru, has seen its share price decline 6.1% over the past week versus a 0.3% gain for Freeport-McMoRan.

Analysis — what it means for markets / sectors / tickers

A Fujimori victory would likely benefit Peruvian banks and mining companies through maintained market-friendly policies. Banco de Credito del Peru (BCP) could see a 5-7% rally on reduced nationalization fears, while mining giants like Buenaventura (BVN) and Southern Copper (SCCO) would benefit from stable royalty frameworks. The sol would likely strengthen toward 3.70 against the dollar on reduced political risk premiums.

A Castillo victory would create immediate headwinds for mining equities and the currency. His original platform proposed rewriting the constitution and raising mining taxes to 70% of profits, which could pressure mining investment and PEN liquidity. The sol could test 3.90 against the dollar, while mining ETFs like COPX might see outflows. The primary risk to this analysis is that Castillo has moderated his rhetoric, suggesting potential policy pragmatism despite his platform.

Institutional flow data shows hedge funds increasing short positions on the sol via futures, with net speculative shorts reaching $1.2 billion notional value. Long-only emerging market funds have reduced Peruvian equity exposure by $340 million over the past month, rotating into Brazilian and Chilean mining names instead.

Outlook — what to watch next

The final pre-election poll blackout period begins on 2 June, making the 31 May data the last reliable indicator before voting. Official results will begin streaming after polls close at 7 PM local time on 7 June, with quick counts expected by 10 PM. A margin narrower than 1 point will likely trigger requests for a full recount, prolonging uncertainty.

Key levels to watch include USD/PEN 3.80 as critical resistance, a break of which could target 3.85. The Lima Stock Exchange Index has support at 21,500, approximately 5% below current levels. Copper futures will be sensitive to any rhetoric about export taxes or nationalization, with critical support at $9,500 per tonne.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does the Peru election mean for copper prices?

Peru produces approximately 12% of global copper supply. Political stability ensures steady production growth, while uncertainty can delay $15 billion in planned mine investments. A Fujimori victory would likely maintain current production forecasts, supporting prices. A Castillo win could introduce regulatory uncertainty that creates a 2-3% risk premium in copper futures, particularly if mine permit approvals slow.

How does this election compare to Peru's 2021 vote?

The 2021 election featured the same candidates but with a more polarized policy divide. Castillo initially proposed constitutional rewrite and widespread nationalizations, which he has since moderated. The current economic backdrop features higher copper prices, providing more fiscal flexibility, but also higher interest rates that constrain government spending options. Polls show a narrower margin than the 0.25-point final result in 2021.

Which international markets are most exposed to Peru?

Chilean and Brazilian mining companies have significant operational exposure to Peru through joint ventures. Chinese metals importers would face supply chain disruption risks from any labor unrest or permit delays. US-based mining equipment companies like Caterpillar generate approximately 3% of South American revenue from Peruvian mines, making them indirectly exposed to investment cycle changes.

Bottom Line

The election's razor-thin margin guarantees volatility in Peruvian assets regardless of the winner.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. CFD trading carries high risk of capital loss.