澳洲央行决定、美国非农与英国地方选举

The coming week (May 4-8, 2026) concentrates multiple policy and labour market data points that have the potential to reprice developed-market interest-rate paths and currency pairs. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) monetary policy decision on May 5 will be the earliest scheduled policy event in a week that culminates with US non-farm payrolls and average hourly earnings on May 8. The UK local elections on May 7 introduce a political data-flow that could reshape near-term sterling volatility and domestic gilt pricing, while Canada publishes employment data on May 8 that will be watched for its implications for the Bank of Canada. Market participants should treat this weekly calendar as a cluster event where cross-asset spillovers—FX into rates into equities—are likelier than in a thin-data week. (Source: InvestingLive, May 4, 2026: https://investinglive.com/forex/market-outlook-for-the-week-of-4th-8th-may-20260504/)

Context

The macro calendar for May 4-8 consolidates central bank signalling windows, US labour statistics, and a set of idiosyncratic national events. The RBA decision on May 5 will be the first central-bank headline of the week and comes ahead of the US ISM services PMI, JOLTS job openings and a delayed print for new home sales on the same day. New Zealand reports employment change q/q and the unemployment rate on May 6, sequentially followed by US initial jobless claims on May 7 and the UK local elections the same day. Canada and the US close the week with employment and wage data on May 8. All dates are from the weekly outlook published May 4, 2026 (InvestingLive).

The compressed schedule increases the probability of simultaneous market stress in correlated instruments. For example, a surprise shift in RBA guidance could move the AUD and Australian bond yields, exerting pressure on EM commodity-linked currencies and cross-border carry trades. Similarly, a materially weaker-than-expected US payrolls print (May 8) would be likely to reduce Treasury yields and lift risk assets, while a stronger print would have the opposite effect. Investors should therefore calibrate exposure to headline risk and prepare for higher intraday volatility around the release windows.

This week’s calendar also has an overlay of political uncertainty via the UK local elections on May 7. Local election outcomes can alter expectations for fiscal policy direction and party momentum; market participants typically treat these prints as a sentiment gauge that can change GBP funding conditions and bank valuations if the result suggests a material shift in national policy risk. Historical episodes show that UK local election surprises can amplify moves in gilts and the pound, particularly when they alter perceived probability of major policy changes.

Data Deep Dive

The RBA decision on May 5 is a data point that deserves a high-resolution read: beyond the rate decision itself, the statement and any alteration in the Bank’s forward guidance will be the transmission mechanism for markets. The RBA has in prior cycles used the statement language to signal tolerance for inflation persistence or the need for further tightening; traders will parse the May 5 text for any mention of household consumption, wages, or global commodity prices. The market will price not just the rate outcome but the conditional language around future hikes or cuts, and that conditionality matters materially for AUD against USD and JPY.

On May 5 the US releases ISM services PMI and JOLTS job openings—both are partial reads on labour market tightness ahead of May 8’s payrolls. The ISM services reading has historically correlated with quarterly GDP contributions and can lead to adjustments in growth expectations; JOLTS provides a vacancy measure that, in combination with jobless claims and payrolls, determines the net balance of slack. The schedule also includes two new home sales prints this week because last month’s publication was missed due to a US government shutdown, creating a stacked read for housing momentum.

The end of week cluster—Canadian employment change and unemployment rate on May 8 and US average hourly earnings m/m, non-farm employment change, and the unemployment rate the same day—creates a knife-edge scenario for North American rates. A Canadian employment surprise would immediately impact Bank of Canada rate-implied pricing; concurrently, US wages and payrolls will drive US Treasury curve moves and implied policy-rate expectations traded in fed funds futures. The calendar, as published May 4, 2026, shows these critical dates and underlines why May 8 is the potential market inflection point (InvestingLive).

Sector Implications

FX markets: The most direct transmission of this week’s data is to FX. AUD will be sensitive to the RBA decision and accompanying guidance; market positioning into May 5 should be reviewed for rebalancing risk. GBP will react to May 7 local elections and any resultant shifts in government credibility—an outcome perceived as poor for the incumbent can pressure GBP and steepen gilt risk premia. USD will remain sensitive to US payrolls and wage data on May 8; stronger-than-expected payrolls or wages typically lift real yields and USD, while weakness reduces rate expectations and USD support.

Rates and credit: Central-bank communications and labour-market outcomes will reprice short- and medium-term rate expectations. A hawkish RBA with upward-tilted guidance could push short-end Australian yields higher, widen AUD basis swaps and compress carry strategies. In the US, payroll-driven moves in the front-end Treasury curve will feed through to valuation models for duration-sensitive sectors and to credit spreads for banks and real-estate-exposed issuers. Sovereign curves in the UK and Canada are likely to show amplified response around political and employment prints respectively.

Equities and commodities: Equities that are rate-sensitive (tech growth names in the US, REITs a