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Central Bank Watch

Stay ahead of central bank decisions that move markets. We track the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of Japan, People's Bank of China, and 20+ monetary authorities with real-time policy analysis.

Updated continuously2,702 articles

OpenAI Revenue Miss Sinks Dollar as AI Trade Cracks

OpenAI's reported $50bn run rate missed the $70bn the market expected, and the dollar fell alongside Intel and Micron instead of rallying. That break from the risk-off playbook is the week's real signal.

5 min16h ago

US CPI Meets Retail Sales in a Packed Week: Dollar, Yields in Focus

US CPI is forecast at 3.6% headline but just +0.2% core month over month, a split that puts the composition of inflation ahead of the headline. Thursday then stacks four US releases into one 8:30 AM window.

5 min16h ago

Fed's Waller: More Rate Hikes Needed, Flexible on Pace

Fed Governor Waller said more rate hikes are likely needed with inflation above target for 5-1/2 years, but left the door open to a pause on 27–28 October. The flexible-pace language hides a firmer destination than markets may be pricing.

5 min2d ago

Japan's Answer to FedWatch: TFX Launches BoJ Meeting Rate Futures

TFX will launch meeting-by-meeting TONA futures this month, after September volume in its three-month contract fell nearly 50% year over year. The yen market has never had a quotable read on hike odds at each BoJ decision — liquidity decides whether it gets one.

5 min2d ago

FOMC Minutes Explained: Why Markets Rarely Move

The FOMC minutes arrive roughly three weeks after the rate decision, by which point traders already have fresher guidance. With October hike odds near 21%, here is why the document rarely triggers a repricing.

5 min3d ago

US Trade Deficit Widens to $105.6B as Imports Hit Record $420.8B

The US trade deficit widened to $105.6 billion in August as imports hit a record $420.8 billion. The biggest increase came from capital goods, the category tariffs are least able to touch.

5 min3d ago

RBA Hikes Bite Less as Debt-to-Asset Hits 1997 Low: Deutsche Bank

Deutsche Bank puts Australia's household debt-to-asset ratio at its lowest since 1997, which weakens the cash-flow channel and keeps a fifth RBA hike alive for November. The catch is that the cushion is built from asset prices the RBA itself warns could fall.

5 min3d ago

RBI Decision Today: 35 of 61 Economists See 25bp Hike to 5.50%

The RBI decides at 10:00 am IST with 35 of 61 polled economists expecting a hike to 5.50%, the first since February 2023. MUFG alone expects a hold, and the rupee's reaction hinges on December guidance rather than today's number.

5 min3d ago

RBI Holds Repo Rate at 5.25%, MUFG Sees Two Hikes Ahead

The RBI left the repo rate at 5.25% on 7 October, extending a pause that has run since February. MUFG says the quiet is temporary and expects 25 basis point hikes in December and February — still less than rates markets are pricing.

4 min3d ago

Japan Real Wages Rise 1.5% for Eighth Straight Month, BOJ Hike Case Builds

Japan's real wages rose 1.5% in August, an eighth straight gain, but the headline slowdown was all bonuses. Base pay held near 4% — the detail the Bank of Japan actually watches before it tightens again.

5 min3d ago

Japan Factory Mood Hits 5-Year High as Services Slump

Japan's factory sentiment hit +22 in October, its best since December 2021, while the services index slid six points to +23. The gap now frames how fast the Bank of Japan can move on rates.

5 min3d ago

Argentina Opens Markets as IC Warns Brokers Not to Cut Compliance

IC's LATAM manager told Money Expo Argentina 2026 that market opening should not become a licence to cut compliance standards. The argument pairs FX access with AML at a moment when brokers are weighing Argentine entry.

5 min4d ago

iFX EXPO Asia 2026 Opens in Hong Kong With 5,000+ Attendees

iFX EXPO Asia 2026 opens in Hong Kong on 7 October with 5,000+ attendees from 130+ countries and 150+ exhibitors. The programme's focus on stablecoins, tokenisation and prediction markets shows where the trading industry's infrastructure debate is heading.

5 min4d ago

BOJ Signals 2% Inflation Met, December Hike in Play

The BOJ could declare in October that underlying inflation has reached 2%, a symbolic first for a central bank that spent years chasing that goal. Markets already price a 64% chance of a December hike — the question is whether the signal accelerates it.

5 min4d ago

RBA Hike Sends Australian Consumer Sentiment to 80.4, Westpac Tips November Follow-Up

Australia's consumer sentiment index fell 4.7% to 80.4 in October after the RBA hiked to 4.6%. Westpac still expects another hike on November 2-3, and the gap between pre- and post-decision respondents is the widest since 2019.

5 min4d ago

New York Fed Probes Banks' $1.5 Trillion Private Credit Exposure

The New York Fed has spent months questioning JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, Barclays and Morgan Stanley on what backs $1.5 trillion in lending to private credit firms. The review started after JPMorgan's March markdowns of software loans exposed to AI disruption.

5 min4d ago

Eurozone PMI Hits 53.1, Fastest Growth in 41 Months

The Eurozone composite PMI held at 53.1 in September, a 41-month high, but input cost and output charge inflation accelerated sharply at the same time. The ECB now faces faster growth and faster prices in the same data set.

4 min5d ago

Services PMIs and FOMC Minutes Lead a Quiet Data Week

Consensus puts the ISM services PMI at 55.1 versus 55.4 prior, a modest cooling that hides the number that actually moves rates. The prices paid component is where the September inflation story gets decided.

5 min5d ago

Fed Minutes Preview: October Hike Odds Fade Below 25%

Fed September minutes land Wednesday at 2pm ET with October hike odds already below one in four. The split between eight, six and four participants on 2027 is the number that decides whether that repricing holds.

5 min5d ago

Japan Services PMI Slips to 51.3, BOJ October Hike in Play

Japan's services PMI cooled to 51.3 in September, yet output prices stayed near record highs and hiring hit its fastest since February. S&P Global flagged October as a possible BOJ hike.

5 min5d ago

BOJ's Uchida: AI Is an Inflation Shock With Correction Risk

BOJ Deputy Governor Uchida called AI a large positive demand shock that has lifted prices and eased financial conditions, while flagging correction risk if profits lag. He also tied AI-related bond issuance to rising long-term yields, a channel that runs outside monetary policy.

5 min5d ago

Australia Services PMI Slows to 51.9 as Jobs Cut, Prices Rise

Australia's services PMI slipped to 51.9 in September as firms cut staff for the first time since May. The hiring decline looks bearish, but the accelerating output price detail is what keeps the RBA's hawkish bias intact.

5 min5d ago

US Adds Just 29,000 Jobs in September, Yields Slide

September payrolls grew just 29,000, and August was revised down by the same amount. The front end of the curve repriced instantly — the 2-year fell 6.24 basis points as October hike odds dropped to 16%.

5 min7d ago

ISM Services, Fed Minutes and Canadian Jobs Lead Week Ahead

ISM services is forecast at 55.1 versus 55.4, but the FOMC minutes and a pair of Treasury auctions may matter more for yields. The week's light calendar hides two central bank documents.

5 min7d ago

10Y Yield Slips to 5.22% as NFP Looms, Bitcoin Tops $86,500

Treasury yields fell to 5.22% after touching 5.34% — the highest since 2002 — while Bitcoin broke above $86,500. The jobs report will decide whether this relief rally survives.

5 min8d ago

Dollar Mixed Before US Jobs Report: 90K Payrolls Eyed, Oil Drops 3.8%

US payrolls are forecast at 90,000, down from 162,000 in August, with the market pricing a 21% chance of an October Fed hike. Oil's 3.82% drop on European reserve talk may not offset a hot wage print.

5 min8d ago

Fed Rate Hike Odds Slump to 25% as RBNZ Leads G10 Pricing

October Fed hike odds fell from 70% to 25% after Williams and Jefferson pushed back, and the RBNZ now leads G10 pricing at 33 bps. The dovish turn rests on a US-Iran thread Trump says ends "very soon, one way or the other."

5 min8d ago

Eurozone Inflation Jumps to 3.8% as Energy Prices Surge

Eurozone September CPI hit 3.8% y/y, beating the 3.6% consensus, as energy prices rose 18.8%. Core matched at 2.5% — and that gap decides whether the ECB treats this as an energy shock or something worse.

5 min8d ago

CPI vs PCE vs PPI: Which Inflation Report Moves Markets Most

CPI, PCE and PPI each answer a different inflation question, and only one sits inside the Fed's 2% framework. The sequencing of the three releases explains why the biggest market move rarely comes from the number that matters most.

5 min8d ago

Japan Trims 7 Trillion Yen Idle Funds as Kiuchi Backs BOJ Tightening

Japan is reclaiming 7 trillion yen of idle funds while Kiuchi says no excessive easing is needed — the same day Tokyo core inflation hit 2.7%. The political brake on BOJ tightening is coming off.

5 min8d ago
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