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Bond Market Analysis

Track sovereign yields, credit spreads, and the yield curve with in-depth fixed income analysis. From US Treasuries to European sovereign debt — critical intelligence for rate-sensitive portfolios.

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Gray Media Raises $75M Term Loan, Redeems $150M 2029 Notes

Gray Media is retiring $150 million of its 10.500% 2029 notes at 105.250% while adding $75 million to its Term Loan G. The catch: the redemption only happens if the new loan funds by Oct. 19, 2026.

5 min1d ago

Stocks Rebound as 10Y Treasury Yield Settles at 5.25%

The 10-year Treasury yield backed off 5.35% and settled at 5.25%, handing European equities a one-day bounce. Crude's 0.9% slide to $90.68 shows how much of the oil price was fear rather than supply.

5 min1d ago

Japan DOGE Review Targets ¥7tn as JGB Yields Hit Highs

Japan's relaunched DOGE review targets 201 special-purpose funds holding around ¥7tn, but the first round scrapped just three of 120 tax breaks. With 10-year JGB yields at multi-decade highs and budget requests at ¥143tn, the year-end talks are where the 40tn yen issuance pledge gets tested.

5 min1d ago

ECB's Lagarde Flags 'Unwarranted' Bond Moves as France Runs 5% Deficit

Lagarde says the ECB can counter "unwarranted" market moves, but the report offers no definition of the threshold. With France's deficit above 5% of GDP and debt near 120%, the TPI's trigger is entirely discretionary.

5 min1d ago

Bond Yields Surge to Multi-Decade Highs as Cheap Money Era Ends

Bond yields have climbed to fresh multi-decade highs, and a US government bond now pays roughly 5%. The shift is not about one borrower — governments, AI builders and households are all competing for the same capital.

5 min2d ago

Why Rising Bond Yields Can Raise Your Grocery Bill

A government borrowing $100 billion at 5% instead of 3% pays $2 billion more a year in interest. That fiscal squeeze can reach shoppers through higher consumption taxes, subsidy cuts or business cost pass-through — but the report warns the effect is not automatic.

4 min2d ago

China 10-Year Yield Hits 1.7% as Global Bonds Sell Off

China's 10-year yield has fallen to 1.7%, more than 3 points below the US Treasury. The gap is not a policy accident — it is a savings glut with nowhere else to go, and Beijing has stopped fighting it.

5 min2d ago

Digital Realty Prices €1B 5.125% Notes Due 2036

Digital Realty priced €1 billion of 5.125% guaranteed notes due 2036 at 99.289% of principal, with proceeds earmarked for green data center projects. DLR shares rose 3.42% to $184.65 as investors read the deal as growth capital.

5 min3d ago

Elis Redeems 2029 OCEANEs After 99.13% Convert to Equity

Elis converted 99.13% of its 2029 OCEANEs into 23.57m shares, but only 5.47m were newly issued thanks to a July buyback. The remaining 33 bonds face a €3.3m cash redemption on 13 October.

5 min3d ago

Treasury 30Y Hits 5.72% as Stocks Slide, Bitcoin Drops 3.19%

The 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.72%, its highest since 2002, and the damage spread fast: Bitcoin fell 3.19% to $83,575 with over $400 million in longs liquidated in a single hour. Oil rose anyway.

5 min3d ago

France-Germany 10Y Yield Spread Hits 80bps: Why It Matters

France pays 4.30% for ten-year money while Germany pays 3.50% — an 80bps gap that is really a live vote on sovereign risk. The spread's direction, not its level, is what transmits into French banks, equities and the euro.

5 min3d ago

Treasury Sells $39B 10-Year Notes, Mortgage Rates and S&P 500 in Focus

The Treasury sells $39 billion of 10-year notes at 1700 GMT in a reopening, and the clearing yield is the number that matters. A concession there does not stay in the bond market — it reaches mortgage pricing and the discount rate on S&P 500 earnings.

5 min3d ago

Two Bond Bears Turn Bullish as 30Y Treasury Yield Tops 5.6%

Two strategists who avoided government bonds for years now back long Treasuries with the 30-year at 5.6%. The $5 billion of inflows into a fund on a record 10-day losing streak is the signal worth watching.

5 min4d ago

Goldman Sachs: US Rates Selloff May Be Overdone, Oil Is Key

Goldman Sachs says the US rates selloff may be somewhat overdone, but it will not call the turn. The bank's five drivers include a five-year auction that cleared above 5% — and an oil channel running through UK and euro-area bonds.

5 min4d ago

France's OAT-Bund Spread Hits 150bps: Bond Market Forces Budget Rethink

France's OAT-Bund spread blew past 150bps, the widest since the euro-area debt crisis, pushing borrowing costs near 5%. The bond market is now forcing a budget rethink that could tighten the spread — and rally the euro and CAC40.

5 min4d ago

France-Germany 10Y Spread Hits 135bps, Widest Since 2012

France's 10-year premium over German bunds has broken an 80bps cap and sits near 135bps, a zone last seen around 2012. Italy's spread is widening too, and that breadth is what changes the story.

5 min4d ago

Chalmers Warns Global Bond Yields Pressure Australia's Budget

Chalmers says cheap government debt maturing will be refinanced at higher rates, with US 10-year yields at their highest since 2007. The mid-year budget update is now a rates event, not a routine accounting exercise.

5 min5d ago

Treasury 10Y Yields Rise 6.52% in October Seasonality Warning

October has averaged a 6.52% rise in 10-year Treasury yields over 15 years, the strongest month of the year. With bonds already the market's biggest pressure point, that seasonal signal is pointing the same way as the trend.

5 min5d ago

10-Year Treasury Yield Rebounds to 5.28% After 29k Payrolls

September payrolls came in at just 29k, yet the 10-year Treasury yield closed the week near 5.28% after dipping to 5.16%. The rebound says more about fiscal deficits and term premium than about the Fed's next move.

5 min5d ago

Chalmers: Iran War an Economic Disaster as Yields Lift Debt Bill

Chalmers says the Iran war is an economic disaster, and rising global bond yields will add billions to Australia's debt servicing costs. The savings package due in the mid-year update may not cover the gap.

5 min6d ago

France 10Y Spread Tops Italy as CAC 40 Breaks Trend

France's 10-year spread over Germany blew past 140bps while Italy stayed below it — the first time markets have priced French risk above Italian. The CAC 40's muted response to its trendline break is the quieter warning.

5 min6d ago

Marfrig Kills $467M NBM 2029 Note Tender as Funding Fails

Marfrig's NBM US Holdings scrapped its cash tender for US$467.5M of 6.625% notes due 2029 after the MARB BondCo financing condition went unmet. The four-day withdrawal leaves the full issue outstanding and the refinancing clock running.

5 min8d ago

Treasury 10Y Slips to 5.23% as DAX Jumps 1.1% Before NFP

The 10-year Treasury yield fell to 5.23% from a 2002-era 5.34%, handing the DAX a 1.1% gain. That relief now rests on one payrolls print — and wage growth may matter more than the headline.

5 min8d ago

UBS: Treasury Hike Pricing Too Aggressive, Three Catalysts Ahead

UBS says markets price nearly four more Fed hikes by end-2027, a stance it calls too aggressive after core PCE cooled. The 10-year yield above 5.3% hides a cushion the bank thinks investors are ignoring.

5 min9d ago

Treasury 10Y Hits 5.33% as Dollar Pushes EUR/USD to 1.1265

The 10-year Treasury yield touched 5.33%, its highest since 2002, and EUR/USD cracked 1.1300 to hit a three-month low of 1.1265. The bond market is still the tail wagging the dog into tomorrow's jobs report.

5 min9d ago

NCLH Prices $950M 8.750% Notes, Upsized From $750M

NCL Corporation upsized its senior notes to $950 million at 8.750% due 2031, up from $750 million. The extra $200 million changes how much of the 2028 maturity and secured debt the deal can retire.

5 min10d ago

US 2s10s Curve Flattens to 30bps as Fed Hike Bets Build

The 2s10s Treasury gap has narrowed to just under 30bps as markets price at least three more Fed hikes. UBS says that signals tighter policy, not an automatic recession call — but weak auction demand tells a different story.

5 min12d ago

US 10Y Yield Tops 5.2%, Highest Since June 2007

The 10-year Treasury yield broke above 5.2% on Monday, its highest since June 2007, after a seven-year auction drew its weakest bid-to-cover in a year. The move is running on real yields, not inflation expectations — a harder repricing to reverse.

5 min12d ago

10-Year Treasury Yield Near 5.20% as Jobs Report Looms

The 10-year Treasury yield has cleared 5% and is nearing 5.20% after the Fed's first hike in more than three years. Friday's jobs report is the test that decides whether yields extend or retreat.

5 min12d ago

Treasury Settles $202B Sept 30 as Bitcoin Sits Near $84,000

Treasury settles $202B on Sept 30, but only $58.42B is net new supply after maturities. The quarter-end repo pinch is the real story — and no data yet links it to Bitcoin's $83,435 print.

4 min12d ago
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