Wall Street Sees SpaceX Surpassing Nvidia for Largest Market Cap
1h ago|4 min readStandard
Fazen Markets Editorial Desk
Collective editorial team · methodology
spacexnvidia
Fazen Markets Editorial Desk
Collective editorial team · methodology
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A report published on 28 June 2026 details proprietary Wall Street analysis suggesting SpaceX could eventually surpass graphics chipmaker Nvidia in market valuation. The long-term scenario, which requires a successful public listing of SpaceX's Starlink unit and continued dominance in launch services, is based on projected revenue from satellite broadband and space infrastructure. The analysis entered circulation as Nvidia stock traded at $192.53, down 3.25% for the day. As of 22:46 UTC today, it had moved in a range between $191.22 and $195.55.
The prospect of a private aerospace firm eclipsing a dominant semiconductor leader reflects shifting long-term capital allocation. The last time a company emerged to challenge the market cap of the world's most valuable firms was when Saudi Aramco went public in 2019, achieving a valuation of nearly $2 trillion. The current macro backdrop features elevated interest rates, which typically pressure high-growth, long-duration equity valuations.
The catalyst for this forward-looking analysis is the anticipated initial public offering of SpaceX's Starlink broadband division. Bankers and investors are actively modeling the standalone value of the low-Earth orbit constellation. They are also factoring in SpaceX's near-monopoly in heavy-lift reusable rocket launches. These two business lines form the core of the bullish thesis.
A secondary catalyst is the maturation of the broader space economy. Revenue projections for satellite services, in-space manufacturing, and lunar logistics have moved from speculative to modeled. This provides a more concrete, albeit distant, foundation for valuing pure-play space companies. The conversation moves beyond conceptual potential to discounted cash flow analyses.
Nvidia's market capitalization stood at approximately $4.8 trillion, based on its $192.53 share price and outstanding shares. This places it firmly among the world's three most valuable public companies. The stock's 3.25% daily decline is modest compared to its historical volatility but reflects a broader sector rotation.
| Metric | Nvidia (NVDA) | SpaceX (Private) |
|---|---|---|
| Latest Valuation | ~$4.8 Trillion | ~$200 Billion (last private raise) |
| Core Business | AI & Graphics Semiconductors | Launch Services & Satellite Internet |
| Key Growth Driver | AI Data Center Demand | Starlink Subscriber Growth & IPO |
The analysis suggests a future, post-IPO combined SpaceX entity could grow to a $6-$8 trillion valuation within a decade. This projection requires Starlink to capture a significant portion of the global telecom market. It also assumes SpaceX maintains an 80%+ share of the commercial heavy-lift launch market.
Comparatively, the S&P 500 index has returned approximately 9% year-to-date. The technology sector within the index has been more volatile, with single-day moves often exceeding 2%. Nvidia's valuation is roughly 100 times larger than the most valuable pure-play defense contractor.
A reallocation of capital toward space infrastructure would create clear second-order effects. Satellite component manufacturers like ViaSat (VSAT) and Iridium Communications (IRDM) would see increased investor interest as comparables. Aerospace suppliers providing materials for reusable rockets, such as Hexcel (HXL) and Howmet Aerospace (HWM), would benefit from higher projected demand.
Semiconductor equipment firms like Applied Materials (AMAT) and ASML Holding (ASML) could experience a relative de-rating if capital flows away from traditional tech. Their valuations are partially tied to the growth narrative of customers like Nvidia. A shift in narrative affects price-to-earnings multiples across the supply chain.
The primary counter-argument is execution risk. The space economy's projected growth depends on lowering costs exponentially, which is not guaranteed. Regulatory hurdles for global spectrum use and orbital debris mitigation pose significant operational challenges. A failed Starship test program or Starlink subscriber shortfall would invalidate the bullish case.
Positioning data shows hedge funds have begun establishing small, thematic long positions in publicly-traded space ETFs like ARK Space Exploration & Innovation ETF (ARKX). Venture capital continues to flow into upstream space-tech startups at a steady pace. The flow is currently exploratory rather than decisive.
The immediate catalyst is the formal filing of a Starlink IPO registration statement with the SEC. Market observers expect this document to be submitted in Q4 2026 or Q1 2027. The filing will contain the first audited financials for the satellite unit, providing a concrete valuation anchor.
Investors should monitor SpaceX's launch cadence, particularly the success rate of its Starship vehicle. Achieving weekly re-flight of the Super Heavy booster is a critical technical milestone for cost projections. Each successful launch without a destructive anomaly validates the reusability model.
For Nvidia, key levels to watch include its 200-day moving average, currently near $178.50, as a major support zone. Resistance sits at the all-time high of $212.38, reached earlier in June. The stock's performance relative to the PHLX Semiconductor Index (SOX) will indicate whether weakness is company-specific or sector-wide.
The next major macro input is the Federal Open Market Committee meeting scheduled for 30 July 2026. Any shift in the projected path of interest rates will disproportionately affect the present value of long-duration growth stories like SpaceX and high-multiple tech stocks like Nvidia. Bond yields above 4.5% on the 10-year Treasury apply valuation pressure.
Elon Musk is the largest shareholder of both Tesla and SpaceX. A successful SpaceX IPO that creates significant shareholder value could improve the overall financial health and perceived stability of Musk's corporate ecosystem. However, the two companies operate in entirely separate industries with no direct financial linkages. Tesla shareholders would not receive an automatic stake in SpaceX. The primary effect would be sentiment-driven, potentially reducing the perceived key-person risk if Musk's wealth becomes less concentrated in Tesla stock.
The closest precedent is Saudi Aramco, which was state-owned before its 2019 IPO. It briefly claimed the world's largest market cap from Apple and Microsoft based on its vast oil reserves, not disruptive growth. In tech, Facebook (Meta) was a late-stage private company valued over $100 billion before its IPO, but it did not threaten to overtake the era's leader, Apple, at its then-$600 billion valuation. The SpaceX scenario is novel in projecting a capital-intensive hardware company overtaking a high-margin software and semiconductor leader.
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