Oil Erases War Premium as Strait of Hormuz Tanker Traffic Resumes
1h ago|3 min readQuick Read
Fazen Markets Editorial Desk
Collective editorial team · methodology
crude-oilstrait-of-hormuz
Fazen Markets Editorial Desk
Collective editorial team · methodology
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Global oil benchmarks declined sharply on June 25, 2026, erasing the geopolitical risk premium built over preceding months. The price movement followed confirmation that a significant number of tankers, previously stranded due to regional tensions, had begun transiting the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude futures fell 4.2% to $79.50 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate dropped 4.5% to $75.10. The resumption of traffic through the critical waterway alleviated immediate concerns over a potential supply disruption.
The Strait of Hormuz is the world's most important oil transit chokepoint, with an estimated 21 million barrels per day flowing through it in 2025. This volume represents about 21% of global petroleum liquids consumption. The recent congestion stemmed from a months-long standoff involving heightened naval patrols and heightened insurance premiums, which deterred ship operators.
A similar, though less severe, disruption occurred in 2019 following attacks on tankers, which spiked Brent prices by 15% over two weeks. The current macro backdrop features elevated global inventories, with the International Energy Agency reporting OECD stockpiles at 2.93 billion barrels in May. This buffer reduced the market's sensitivity to the initial supply scare, setting the stage for a swift price correction once the immediate threat passed.
The catalyst for the resumption was a de-escalation in naval interdiction activities and a subsequent normalization of war risk insurance rates for vessels entering the Gulf.
Brent crude futures for August settlement declined $3.50 to settle at $79.50 per barrel, marking the largest single-day percentage loss since March. The benchmark has now surrendered all its gains since mid-April, returning to its pre-crisis trading range. WTI futures mirrored the move, closing down $3.55 at $75.10.
The United States Oil Fund saw a 12% increase in trading volume, indicating heightened retail and institutional activity. Energy sector equities underperformed the broader market significantly; the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund fell 3.1% against a 0.5% decline for the S&P 500. The price of put options on the XLE ETF, betting on further declines, surged 45% on the day.
| Metric | Pre-Event (June 24) | Post-Event (June 25) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brent Crude | $83.00 | $79.50 | -4.2% |
| WTI Crude | $78.65 | $75.10 | -4.5% |
| XLE ETF | $92.10 | $89.25 | -3.1% |
The sell-off directly pressures margins for exploration and production companies. Firms with high operating use, like Occidental Petroleum and Devon Energy, are most exposed to the price drop. Conversely, the transportation sector benefits from lower fuel costs. Airlines such as Delta Air Lines and United Airlines Holdings rallied 2.5% and 2.8%, respectively, on the prospect of reduced jet fuel expenses.
A counter-argument suggests the price decline may be overdone. Underlying structural supply deficits, driven by prolonged underinvestment in new production, remain unaddressed. The market's rapid reassessment potentially overlooks the persistent fragility of global supply chains.
Flow data indicates hedge funds and commodity trading advisors were net sellers of crude futures, liquidating long positions that had been built on geopolitical fears. This technical selling pressure exacerbated the fundamental move lower.
Market attention will pivot to the upcoming OPEC+ meeting on July 3. Ministers will decide whether to extend or modify existing production cuts in response to the altered supply landscape.
Technical analysts are watching the 200-day moving average for Brent crude at $78.25 as a critical support level. A sustained break below this could trigger further algorithmic selling.
The next U.S. inventory report from the Energy Information Administration, due June 28, will provide the first read on whether the resumption of tanker traffic is translating into higher stateside imports. Any significant build in crude stocks would likely reinforce the bearish momentum.
Lower oil prices act as a disinflationary force by reducing energy and transportation costs across the economy. This development could provide the Federal Reserve with greater flexibility to consider rate cuts later in the year, as it alleviates pressure on core inflation metrics.
Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz cause war risk insurance premiums to spike, sometimes adding over $100,000 to the cost of a single tanker voyage. These costs are typically passed through the supply chain, increasing the final delivered price of crude oil and refined products for end consumers.
Integrated majors like ExxonMobil and Chevron have diversified global operations that can mitigate regional disruptions. Pure-play producers operating primarily in the Permian Basin, such as Pioneer Natural Resources, are more directly leveraged to the pure crude price and thus more sensitive to the evaporation of a geopolitical risk premium.
The normalization of tanker traffic has unwound the war premium in oil, refocusing the market on fundamental supply and demand.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. CFD trading carries high risk of capital loss.
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