November Soybeans Challenge $14.50 High on Strong Crush Demand
0h ago|3 min readQuick Read
Fazen Markets Editorial Desk
Collective editorial team · methodology
soybeansagricultural-commodities
Fazen Markets Editorial Desk
Collective editorial team · methodology
Trades XAUUSD 24/5 on autopilot. Verified Myfxbook performance. Free forever.
Risk warning: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The majority of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs. Vortex HFT is informational software — not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
November soybean futures traded on the Chicago Board of Trade advanced to $14.20 per bushel on 23 May 2026. This marks a 4.8% rally over the prior five sessions, positioning the contract within striking distance of its 2026 peak of $14.50. The move was attributed to strong domestic processing demand and technical buying aligned with a historically bullish period for the oilseed. The price action suggests a potential test of yearly highs is imminent.
The last significant rally in November soybeans occurred in July 2025, when prices peaked at $14.75 amid a widespread drought scare across the Corn Belt. The current macro backdrop features a strong U.S. dollar and steady interest rates, which typically serve as headwinds for dollar-denominated commodities. The primary catalyst for this move is a fundamental shift in demand dynamics, not a supply shock.
Soybean crush margins have expanded significantly, incentivizing processors to aggressively bid for available supplies. This soybean crush margin represents the profit from processing beans into meal and oil. Domestic demand for soybean meal remains exceptionally strong due to sustained livestock production levels.
Seasonal tendencies also provide a supportive tailwind. The period from late May through June has historically been the most bullish for soybean futures over the past decade. This pattern is driven by the finalization of planting intentions and the market pricing in uncertainty for the critical summer growing season.
November soybean futures settled at $14.20 on 23 May, up 65 cents from the previous week's low of $13.55. The contract's 2026 high stands at $14.50, set on 12 April. Open interest has increased by 12,000 contracts over the rally, indicating new long positioning is fueling the advance rather than short covering.
July soybean meal futures, a key processing byproduct, have outperformed, rallying 7.2% month-to-date to $428 per short ton. The physical soybean crush margin in the U.S. Midwest is calculated at $2.85 per bushel, well above the five-year seasonal average of $1.80. This profitability is the highest for this time of year since 2021.
For comparison, corn futures have gained only 2.1% over the same period, highlighting the unique fundamental strength in the soy complex. The continuous soybean futures contract is up 15% year-to-date, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's 8% gain.
Strong crush demand directly benefits leading agricultural processors. Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM) and Bunge Global SA (BG) are the primary beneficiaries of expanded margins, potentially adding $0.15-$0.20 to quarterly EPS for each sustained $0.50 move in crush rates. Soybean meal consumers, namely livestock producers like Tyson Foods (TSN), face rising input costs that may pressure margins.
A counter-argument exists that the rally is overextended. South American harvest pressure from Brazil's record crop could flood the global market and cap upside momentum in the coming weeks. Chinese import demand also remains a variable, with their domestic reserves at adequate levels.
Positioning data from the CFTC shows managed money funds are net long approximately 40,000 soybean contracts. The recent price surge has likely been driven by new speculative inflows into the commodity, anticipating a breakout above technical resistance.
The next USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report on 12 June will provide a critical update on domestic and global balance sheets. Any downward revision to South American production estimates would be immediately bullish.
Technical levels are paramount. A daily close above the $14.50 contract high would signal a breakout, targeting the $15.00 psychological level. Key support rests at the 50-day moving average of $13.80. A break below this level would invalidate the near-term bullish structure.
The progression of the U.S. planting season and early crop development reports throughout June will determine the weather premium baked into futures. The market remains highly sensitive to any forecast suggesting summer heat or drought conditions.
Strong crush demand creates direct competition for soybean supplies between exporters and domestic processors. When processors are profitable, they bid aggressively for available beans, elevating cash prices and pulling futures higher. This fundamental support is often more durable than speculative buying driven by macroeconomic factors or technical breaks.
Over the past two decades, November soybean futures have posted an average gain of 3.1% during the month of June. This makes it the second-strongest month for the contract, behind only July. The seasonal strength is primarily driven by the market pricing in uncertainty for the U.S. crop during its most critical development phase.
The Teucrium Soybean Fund (SOYB) is the most direct exchange-traded product tracking soybean futures. The Invesco DB Agriculture Fund (DBA) provides diversified exposure to agricultural commodities, with a significant weighting in soybeans. These products are useful for investors seeking commodity exposure without trading futures contracts directly.
strong crush margins and seasonal trends provide a fundamental foundation for a test of yearly highs.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. CFD trading carries high risk of capital loss.
Vortex HFT is our free MT4/MT5 Expert Advisor. Verified Myfxbook performance. No subscription. No fees. Trades 24/5.
Trade gold, silver & commodities — zero commission
Start TradingSponsored
Open a demo account in 30 seconds. No deposit required.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.