Ipsos Poll Shows 56% of UK Adults Would Rejoin EU

A new Ipsos survey has found that a majority of British adults would vote to rejoin the European Union if a second referendum were held today. The poll, conducted in early June 2026 and discussed at a Bloomberg event on June 10, indicates 56% of respondents would support rejoining, with 44% opposed. This 12-percentage-point margin represents a notable shift in public sentiment eight years after the UK's formal departure from the bloc. The discussion featured political commentators Alastair Campbell and Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg analyzing the potential ramifications of such a vote.

Context — why this matters now

The 2016 referendum saw the UK vote 51.9% to 48.1% to leave the EU, a result that triggered significant market volatility, including a more than 10% intraday plunge in the pound sterling. The current macro backdrop is defined by persistently high UK borrowing costs relative to the Eurozone, with the 10-year gilt yield at 4.8% versus Germany's 2.1% bund yield. The catalyst for renewed debate is the tangible economic divergence, evidenced by UK GDP growth lagging the Eurozone average for three consecutive quarters through Q1 2026. Pollster Ipsos has tracked a gradual but steady increase in pro-EU sentiment since 2021, with the current reading marking a peak in its dataset.

Data — what the numbers show

The Ipsos poll of 2,058 UK adults was conducted from June 2-4, 2026. It shows 56% would vote to rejoin the EU, a 7-point increase from a similar poll conducted in January 2024. Support is highest among voters aged 18-34, at 72%, and lowest among those aged 65+, at 41%. The British pound sterling (GBP) traded at 1.1830 against the euro (EUR) on the day the poll was discussed, a level that is 17% weaker than its pre-2016 referendum average. The UK's nominal goods trade deficit with the EU widened to 43.5 billion pounds in 2025, compared to 32.1 billion pounds in 2019, underscoring persistent post-Brexit friction.

Analysis — what it means for markets / sectors / tickers

A sustained shift in rejoin sentiment would likely benefit domestically-focused UK equities and the pound, as it implies a long-term reduction in trade barriers and regulatory divergence. Sectors with high EU exposure, such as automotive (Jaguar Land Rover), aerospace (Rolls-Royce), and pharmaceuticals (GSK, AstraZeneca), stand to gain from reduced compliance costs and smoother supply chains. An immediate risk is political instability, as a potential Labour government elected in 2027 would face intense pressure to define its EU policy, creating uncertainty that could suppress near-term investment. Short-term currency and bond market positioning reflects skepticism, with CFTC data showing asset managers maintaining a net short position on sterling versus the euro.

Outlook — what to watch next

The next major catalyst is the UK general election scheduled for May 2, 2027, where party manifestos will detail positions on the UK-EU Trade and Cooperation Agreement review. Currency traders will monitor the GBP/EUR 1.2000 level, a key technical resistance last tested in 2022; a sustained break above could signal markets pricing in closer alignment. The European Commission will publish its annual report on UK regulatory alignment on November 15, 2026, which will signal the potential scope for any future single market access negotiations. Should UK services exports to the EU show a fourth consecutive quarterly decline in Q3 2026 data, political pressure for a formal policy reassessment would intensify.

Frequently Asked Questions

How would the UK rejoining the EU affect the FTSE 100?

The FTSE 100, heavily weighted toward multinationals earning in dollars, might see a muted direct impact compared to the more domestically-focused FTSE 250. The key driver would be the sterling exchange rate. A stronger pound on rejoin prospects would mechanically reduce the sterling value of FTSE 100 companies' overseas earnings, potentially acting as a headwind for the index in the short term, even as operational costs for EU-facing businesses fall.

What is the process for a country to rejoin the European Union?

Rejoining is not a simple reversal of Brexit. Under Article 49 of the Treaty on European Union, the UK would need to apply as a new member state. This requires unanimous approval from all existing EU members, the negotiation of accession terms, and ratification by each national parliament. The process would likely take a minimum of five to seven years, during which the UK would be outside the EU's single market and customs union unless an interim agreement was reached.

Has any country left and then rejoined the EU before?

No sovereign nation has ever left the European Union and subsequently rejoined. Greenland, an autonomous territory of Denmark, left the European Economic Community (a predecessor entity) in 1985 after a referendum but remains associated via Denmark's membership. The UK's departure and any potential return would be an unprecedented event in the bloc's history, with no legal or procedural template for accelerated re-accession.

Bottom Line

The Ipsos poll signals a durable shift in UK voter sentiment that introduces a new, long-term political risk variable for sterling and UK assets.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. CFD trading carries high risk of capital loss.