BlackRock Says Copper's Upward Trend Can Continue
0h ago|4 min readStandard
Fazen Markets Editorial Desk
Collective editorial team · methodology
coppercommodities
Fazen Markets Editorial Desk
Collective editorial team · methodology
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Evy Hambro, head of fundamental equities thematic and sector investing at BlackRock, stated that copper's upward price trend remains intact during a Bloomberg Television interview on 19 August 2026. Hambro characterized the market as very tight, dismissing concerns that the rally had run its course. His comments come as copper futures trade near multi-month highs, with BlackRock's own stock, BLK, trading at $1,154.35 as of 09 UTC today, down 1.65% on the session.
Copper is a critical industrial metal often viewed as a barometer of global economic health due to its use in construction and electrification. The current price surge occurs against a backdrop of steady global growth projections and sustained demand from the green energy transition. Major investment banks have revised their copper price forecasts upwards throughout 2026, citing supply constraints and inventory drawdowns.
Supply disruptions at key mines in Chile and Peru have removed significant tonnage from the market this year. These production shortfalls coincide with stronger-than-expected demand from China's grid infrastructure buildout. The physical market shows signs of tension with registered warehouse stocks on the London Metal Exchange falling to multi-year lows.
The last comparable copper rally of this magnitude occurred in early 2024, when prices gained over 30% in six months amid similar supply concerns. That move preceded a consolidation period that lasted nearly eighteen months before the current leg higher began. Historical data shows copper can sustain extended trends when fundamental supply-demand dynamics remain supportive.
Copper futures on the COMEX exchange have gained approximately 22% year-to-date, significantly outperforming the broader commodities complex. The Bloomberg Commodity Index has risen just 5.7% over the same period, highlighting copper's exceptional strength. This divergence underscores the metal's unique supply situation versus other raw materials.
The rally has pushed copper prices to levels not seen since March 2025, when they briefly touched $5.20 per pound before retreating. Current prices represent a 45% recovery from the lows established in November 2025. The sustained upward move has occurred alongside declining inventory levels across major trading hubs.
BlackRock's stock performance reflects broader market movements rather than specific copper exposure. BLK shares trade in a daily range of $1,143.18 to $1,161.81, with the current price representing a modest decline from recent highs. The asset manager's diversified business model means copper represents just one of many commodity exposures across its investment products.
Major copper producers show mixed performance relative to the underlying metal. Freeport-McMoRan (FCX), one of the world's largest copper miners, has seen its stock rise approximately 18% year-to-date, slightly trailing the metal's performance. Southern Copper Corporation (SCCO) has outperformed with a 25% gain over the same period, benefiting from lower production costs.
The copper rally creates winners and losers across multiple sectors. Mining companies with significant copper exposure stand to benefit from higher realized prices, particularly those with low production costs and expanding output. Freeport-McMoRan and Southern Copper represent pure plays on copper price movements, while diversified miners like BHP and Rio Tinto derive substantial revenue from the metal.
Industrial manufacturers and construction firms face rising input costs as copper prices increase. Companies in the electrical equipment, automotive, and building materials sectors may experience margin compression if they cannot pass through higher copper costs to customers. This dynamic could pressure earnings for firms with fixed-price contracts or limited pricing power.
The tight physical market suggests continued upward pressure on prices until supply responds or demand moderates. Mine development timelines mean significant new production remains years away, supporting Hambro's contention that the trend may have further to run. Investment flows into copper ETFs and futures markets have increased alongside the price rise, indicating institutional participation in the move.
A potential counter-argument suggests copper prices have moved too far too fast, incorporating optimistic demand assumptions while underestimating substitution risks. Aluminum and other materials can replace copper in some applications if prices remain elevated for extended periods. Chinese strategic stockpile releases could also temporarily alleviate physical market tightness.
Market participants should monitor several upcoming catalysts that could affect copper prices. The next China Purchasing Managers' Index release on 31 August will provide insight into manufacturing activity in the world's largest copper consumer. Strong readings could support continued demand expectations, while weak data might temper bullish sentiment.
Technical levels to watch include the March 2025 high of $5.20 per pound as potential resistance. A sustained break above this level could trigger further momentum buying from systematic funds and CTAs. Support appears around the $4.60 level, which represented resistance during the first quarter of 2026.
The next major production reports from Chilean and Peruvian mining authorities, due in early September, will update the supply situation. Any upward revisions to output forecasts could ease concerns about physical availability, while further downgrades would reinforce the tight market narrative. Labor negotiations at major mines also warrant attention for potential disruption risks.
Higher copper prices increase production costs for electric vehicle manufacturers, who use approximately four times more copper per vehicle than traditional automobiles. Companies like Tesla and Volkswagen face margin pressure unless they can achieve offsetting cost reductions elsewhere. Some manufacturers may accelerate efforts to develop copper-free or copper-reduced motor technologies to mitigate long-term price exposure.
BlackRock manages several commodity-focused ETFs including the iShares Bloomberg Roll Select Commodity Strategy ETF. Hambro's comments reflect the firm's research perspective but don't necessarily dictate specific fund positioning. The firm's ETF flows data shows increased interest in commodities exposure, though precise copper allocations aren't disclosed in real-time.
The 2003-2006 copper bull market saw prices increase over 400% amid strong Chinese demand growth and supply constraints. More recently, the 2020-2021 recovery rally produced gains of approximately 120% as pandemic stimulus measures boosted industrial activity. Both periods featured sustained inventory draws and production challenges similar to current market conditions.
Copper's fundamental supply-demand imbalance supports continued price strength according to BlackRock's analysis.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. CFD trading carries high risk of capital loss.
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