BitGo Expands Institutional OTC Prediction Market Access

Lead paragraph

BitGo announced on Mar 24, 2026 that its institutional custody platform will provide clients with direct access to over-the-counter (OTC) prediction markets through a partnership with Susquehanna Crypto (The Block, Mar 24, 2026). Under the arrangement, institutional clients will be able to post either cash or cryptocurrency as collateral for OTC trades, a capability designed to bridge custody, collateral management and bespoke trading execution. The integration signals a step-change in how regulated custodians and professional trading firms are approaching event-driven markets, moving certain activity off public, retail-oriented venues and into institution-grade plumbing. The announcement comes as prediction-market interest has broadened beyond retail constituencies, raising questions about market structure, compliance, and counterparty exposure for institutional balance sheets.

Context

The BitGo–Susquehanna Crypto partnership formalizes an institutional channel to OTC prediction markets at a time when derivatives and event-driven trading are reshaping institutional crypto desks. BitGo, long established as an institutional custodian, will permit clients to post fiat or admitted crypto collateral to support OTC positions executed via Susquehanna Crypto, according to The Block (Mar 24, 2026). Susquehanna Crypto is an arm of Susquehanna International Group, a proprietary trading firm founded in 1987, which has built a multi-asset trading franchise and moved progressively into crypto market-making and execution.

This route contrasts with public prediction venues — such as decentralized automated-market makers or retail platforms — where custody and settlement are often self-managed by participants. By internalizing custody and collateral within BitGo’s platform, institutional flow can be routed through regulated custody rails, offering operational controls not available on public chains. The shift is notable because it aligns prediction-market exposure with institutional counterparty frameworks and existing treasury operations rather than leaving such exposures on public rails.

Regulatory context is central. Prediction markets have different regulatory footprints across jurisdictions; the U.S. in particular has seen regulatory scrutiny around gambling statutes, securities definitions and the role of federal agencies. By implementing an OTC, custodian-backed channel, BitGo and Susquehanna are seeking to create a controlled environment—one that can apply KYC/AML, credit controls and bespoke contractual terms—potentially reducing legal and compliance risk for institutional clients.

Data Deep Dive

The Block article (Mar 24, 2026) provides the primary public disclosure that BitGo clients will be able to post cash or crypto as collateral for OTC prediction-market trades executed via Susquehanna Crypto. This is a structural change in product delivery: collateralized OTC trades enable institutions to maintain balance-sheet segregation and liquidity profiles distinct from on-chain exposures. While the announcement did not disclose minimum trade sizes, margin rates, or specific settlement windows, the key data point is the availability of both fiat and crypto collateral types, which materially broadens who can participate.

Historical precedents matter. Institutional OTC trading in other asset classes typically uses custodial collateral and bilateral agreements; by bringing prediction markets into that mold, BitGo and Susquehanna are implicitly treating these instruments as bespoke derivatives. Susquehanna International Group, founded in 1987, has decades of experience with OTC derivatives and option markets, which suggests the firm will deploy similar risk management frameworks adapted to crypto-native events.

From a systems perspective, custody-led collateralization reduces on-chain settlement risk but increases counterparty concentration: the institution’s exposure shifts from smart-contract risk to credit and operational risk with defined counterparties. This is significant because event outcomes in prediction markets can be binary and lead to concentrated payoffs. The ability to post cash (fiat) collateral is an actionable metric: it suggests settlement may occur in fiat, enabling institutions to manage P&L without forced on-chain crypto flows and potential tax or regulatory implications.

Sector Implications

The move sets a precedent for custodians to expand beyond passive asset safekeeping into active trade-enablement for niche derivatives. For custodians and prime brokers, this represents a new revenue stream and a client-retention tool. Competitors such as traditional prime brokers or other crypto custodians could respond by offering similar OTC channels or by expanding their derivatives custody stacks. The structural comparison here is with prime brokerage desks in equities and FX: custodians that add execution and clearing-like functions can capture greater wallet share from institutional clients.

For trading firms and liquidity providers, the arrangement with Susquehanna presents an opportunity to scale bespoke flow without creating market microstructure distortions on public venues. That said, moving significant liquidity into OTC venues can reduce price discovery on public books or shift informational advantages to firms handling order flow. A measured outcome could be bifurcation: retail and price discovery remain on public venues while institutional settlement migrates to OTC custodial channels.

For regulators and compliance teams, the arrangement underscores a need for clarity on how event contracts are treated under securities, commodities, and betting laws. If institutions aggregate sizable positions through OTC channels, systemic oversight and reporting requirements could follow, particularly where outcomes have macroeconomic or political relevance. Firms will need to reconcile capital-treatment considerations: bilateral exposures and margining for prediction contracts will influence balance-sheet metrics differently than spot crypto holdings.

Risk Assessment

Operational risk is front and center. Moving settlement from public chains to custodian-facilitated OTC workflows concentrates operational risk at the custodian and the executing counterparty. A custody outage, disputed settlement or legal challenge to an event’s outcome could create concentrated exposure across a cohort of institutional clients. Counterparty credit risk also rises; institutions will be exposed to Susquehanna Crypto (and, indirectly, to BitGo’s custodial safeguards) rather than to decentralized, collateral-backed smart contracts.

Market integrity and surveillance are material concerns. OTC trading reduces the transparency of order flow, and prediction markets have historically been targeted for information-based speculation. If institutional flows become predominant on OTC rails, surveillance regimes—both internal and regulatory—will need to adapt to detect manipulation, front-running, or insider information exploitation. That will require investment in trade reporting, audit trails, and linkage between custodial records and trade execution records.

Legal and regulatory risk remains ambiguous. Different jurisdictions treat prediction markets divergently; some consider certain event contracts as securities or wagers. Institutions using these custodial OTC channels will need explicit legal opinions and compliance frameworks to avoid unintended violations. The ability to post fiat collateral (per The Block, Mar 24, 2026) reduces some crypto-specific regulatory frictions but does not eliminate broader legal questions about the underlying contract’s permissibility.

Fazen Capital Perspective

Fazen Capital’s view is that the BitGo–Susquehanna model is an expected, rational evolution for institutional uptake but it is not a panacea. Putting collateral within a custodian’s control resolves custody and settlement frictions but centrally concentrates forms of risk—credit, legal, and operational—that institutions typically diversify away in on-chain markets. Contrarian-readers should note that custodial OTC channels could slow public price discovery and create informational asymmetries that favor well-capitalized trading firms. From a portfolio governance standpoint, institutions should treat OTC prediction exposure similarly to other bespoke derivatives: require bilateral legal documentation, robust margining, and third-party auditability of outcomes.

Operationally, the presence of fiat collateral will make prediction-market P&L more fungible with corporate treasury operations, increasing the likelihood that corporate treasuries and asset managers join the participation pool. That could push regulators to draw clearer bright lines quickly; the industry should not assume an open-ended runway for growth without commensurate regulatory clarity. For fiduciaries, the immediate implication is governance: any allocation to event-driven OTC prediction contracts should pass the same due-diligence bar as other OTC derivatives counterparties.

We also view the partnership as a test case for whether custodians will extend similar services across other bespoke, non-standardized crypto derivatives. If successful, expect incremental product announcements across custody platforms, and heightened competition among custodians to integrate dealer networks and execution protocols. For institutional investors tracking market structure evolution, this is a data point that signals how custody can be retrofitted into more active trading workflows.

Bottom Line

BitGo’s Mar 24, 2026 tie-up with Susquehanna Crypto formalizes an institutional OTC channel for prediction markets that uses custodian-managed fiat or crypto collateral—reshaping counterparty and operational risk profiles (The Block, Mar 24, 2026). Institutions engaging with these products should weigh the trade-off between settlement control and concentrated counterparty risk.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

FAQ

Q: How does custodian-facilitated OTC access differ from public on-chain prediction markets?

A: Custodian-facilitated OTC trades move settlement and collateral management off public chains into bilateral frameworks that can accept fiat or custodied crypto, enabling KYC/AML, contractual dispute resolution and conventional margining—whereas on-chain markets typically rely on smart-contract collateral models and public settlement. This can limit on-chain settlement risk but increases counterparty concentration.

Q: Will institutional OTC channels change regulatory treatment of prediction markets?

A: They could. Greater institutional participation via custodial channels is likely to attract regulatory scrutiny, particularly around market integrity, reporting, and classification of contracts. If large pools of institutional capital accumulate in OTC prediction contracts, regulators may seek enhanced trade reporting or capital rules analogous to other OTC derivatives.

Q: Are there historical analogues to this shift?

A: Yes. Prime brokerage and custody ecosystems in equities and FX evolved to incorporate execution and clearing functions for institutional clients. The BitGo–Susquehanna arrangement mirrors that historical pattern: custody plus execution bundled for institutional convenience, albeit in a nascent and legally unsettled market.

References: The Block, "BitGo offers OTC prediction market access to institutions via Susquehanna Crypto partnership" (Mar 24, 2026); Susquehanna International Group corporate history (founded 1987). For broader perspective on custody and derivative market structure see Fazen Capital insights: institutional custody and derivatives market structure.