ANZ Survey: NZ Business Confidence Eases to +52 as Oil Spike Hits Late Replies

New Zealand business confidence eased to +52 in September, down around 2 points from August, while inflation expectations held at 3.25% even as the Dubai spot oil price climbed from roughly $100 a barrel early in the month to a peak near $128, according to ANZ's monthly Business Outlook survey. Expected own activity was unchanged at +48 and reported past activity fell 5 points to +11. Firms answering after a late-month reminder showed a weaker read: the own activity outlook dropped to +36 versus +52 among early respondents. ANZ's next Business Outlook is due on October 29.

Context — why the RBNZ is reading the late responses closely

The split in responses is the story. Most replies came in around September 1, but roughly a quarter arrived after a reminder on September 22. By then the Dubai spot price had retreated from its peak to about $111, and it sat near $108 when ANZ finalised its notes.

That timing gap gives the Reserve Bank of New Zealand something close to a natural experiment. Early replies reflect a month where firms were still leaning on the recovery narrative ANZ has tracked through 2026. Late replies reflect firms that had watched crude spike and come only partway back down.

ANZ said the survey still tells a story of recovering activity, with a good number of firms reporting stronger conditions than a year ago. But the late-month cohort cut every activity indicator except investment, and past activity among them turned negative.

For the RBNZ, the encouraging detail is that the oil move did not feed straight into inflation expectations. Those held at 3.25% for the year ahead. Cost expectations rose 1 point to a net 82% of firms expecting higher costs, and firms see costs rising about 2.6% over the next three months.

That combination — input costs climbing while inflation expectations stay put — is the outcome a central bank wants to see when an energy shock lands. ANZ called it encouraging but stressed it is very early.

The other side of the ledger is capacity. ANZ said the share of firms citing skilled labour shortages is consistent with spare capacity in the economy being used up faster than the RBNZ assumed in its Monetary Policy Statement earlier in September. Wage expectations for the next 12 months edged up to around 2.8% from 2.6%, which ANZ flagged as a mild upside risk to the central bank's wage forecasts.

Data — what the numbers show

Pricing intentions eased 3 points to a net 48% of firms expecting to raise prices, giving the RBNZ a second reason to look past the oil move. Cost expectations went the other way, up 1 point to a net 82%.

The before-and-after on activity is the clearest signal in the release. Own activity outlook: +52 among early responses, +36 among late ones. That is a 16-point gap inside a single month's sample.

Indicator	Level	Change
Business confidence	+52	-2 pts
Expected own activity	+48	unchanged
Reported past activity	+11	-5 pts
Inflation expectations (1yr)	3.25%	steady
Cost expectations	net 82%	+1 pt
Pricing intentions	net 48%	-3 pts
Wage expectations (12m)	~2.8%	from 2.6%

The sector detail sharpens the picture. Manufacturing was the standout for confidence at +79, with employment intentions at +39. Retail sat at the other end, with employment intentions negative at -11 and investment intentions just +2. Construction saw residential activity intentions keep improving, and pricing intentions in construction reached their highest level in the survey.

ANZ's monthly heatmap showed manufacturing and construction heating up while retail, services and agriculture cooled. ANZ noted agriculture is easing after an excellent couple of years.

Analysis — what it means for NZD and rates

Two forces are pulling against each other in this release, and NZD traders are pricing both.

The hawks get wage expectations at 2.8%, up from 2.6%, and a labour-shortage reading that implies spare capacity is draining faster than the RBNZ modelled. If that persists, the central bank's wage forecasts need revising higher, which keeps the tightening conversation alive.

The doves get inflation expectations pinned at 3.25% through an oil spike, pricing intentions easing to a net 48%, and a late-month activity slump that suggests higher fuel costs are already biting sentiment. ANZ said the weaker late readings could temper the case for tighter policy, while stressing the late-month activity numbers were nowhere near the lows seen in late March and April.

The sector split matters for equity and credit exposure. Manufacturing's +79 confidence and +39 employment intentions point to a sector still hiring and still investing, which supports the industrial side of the NZX. Retail's -11 employment intentions and +2 investment intentions point to a consumer-facing sector that is not adding capacity. Construction pricing intentions at a survey high is the detail to watch for anyone tracking domestic inflation persistence.

A limitation worth flagging: the late-month sample is roughly a quarter of responses, and it is self-selected by firms that needed a reminder. ANZ treats the split as informative, but it is not a controlled panel, so the +36 versus +52 gap overstates precision.

On positioning, the setup favours patience. Rate traders have a survey that argues both ways, and the RBNZ has no fresh data in this release that forces its hand. NZD flow is more likely to track the oil price and the next survey than to reposition on this print alone.

Outlook — what to watch next

ANZ's next Business Outlook lands on October 29, and it is the first clean test of whether the late-September softness persists or was a one-off reaction to crude near $128.

Three things to track. First, whether the own activity outlook for late respondents recovers toward the early-month +52 or stays near +36. Second, whether wage expectations hold at 2.8% or extend the move from 2.6%. Third, whether construction pricing intentions stay at their survey high.

The oil price is the swing variable. Dubai spot sat around $108 when ANZ finalised its notes, down from the $128 peak but still well above the roughly $100 that opened September. A further retreat would remove the sentiment drag the late respondents flagged. A renewed push higher would test whether inflation expectations can stay anchored at 3.25% for a second month.

ANZ said how firms respond to the renewed uncertainty will help determine how 2026 ends, adding that waiting for certainty risks doing nothing for a long time. That framing applies to the RBNZ as much as to the firms in the sample.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does the ANZ business confidence survey measure?

It tracks sentiment across New Zealand firms on activity, employment, investment, costs, pricing and inflation expectations. September's headline confidence reading was +52, down around 2 points, with expected own activity steady at +48. ANZ also splits responses by arrival date, which is how it isolated the oil-price effect in the roughly quarter of replies received after the September 22 reminder.

Why did late responses show weaker activity than early ones?

ANZ received most replies around September 1. The Dubai spot oil price then rose from about $100 a barrel to a peak near $128 before easing to around $111 at the reminder date. Firms answering after September 22 cut every activity indicator except investment, with own activity outlook at +36 versus +52 early. ANZ linked the gap to the oil move.