AUDUSD Slides to 0.69902 After RBA Hikes Cash Rate to 4.60%

The Reserve Bank of Australia raised its cash rate target by 25 basis points to 4.60% on 29 September 2026, in line with expectations, and said inflation remains too high. AUDUSD did not rally on the decision. The pair extended a decline that began after its 9 September high at 0.7237 and fell to 0.6979, its lowest level since the end of July, before trading near 0.69902.

Context — Why a rate hike failed to lift the Australian dollar

The RBA left the door open to further tightening if needed, yet the Australian dollar still weakened. The reaction reflects a distinction traders often miss: an expected hike does not guarantee currency strength. The decision appears to have been priced in ahead of the announcement, while moves in the US dollar carried more weight for the pair.

US dollar strength was driven in part by rising US yields on expectations of a more hawkish Federal Reserve. That cross-currency pressure outweighed the domestic rate increase. See how fazen.markets covers global rate decisions for the broader macro read-through.

The technical picture had already turned progressively more bearish before the RBA meeting. AUDUSD bounced from its 100-day moving average on 17 September, then broke below that average with momentum last Wednesday. It closed below the 200-day moving average on Thursday, even though buyers did appear near the 61.8% retracement at 0.7007.

The pair then traded on both sides of the 200-day moving average across the following sessions. That two-way action set up the reaction that mattered most: whether the RBA decision could produce a sustained bounce, or whether sellers would use the moving average as a level to lean against.

They did. Today, sellers leaned against the 200-day moving average, now near 0.70256, around the Asian-Pacific session high. When the decision failed to produce a sustained bounce, they pushed price to its lowest level since the end of July. The decline reached 0.6979, just above the swing area between 0.69619 and 0.69778.

Data — What the numbers show

Price has corrected modestly higher from the 0.6979 low, but sellers have so far been willing to sell against the 0.7007 retracement. The current price sits at 0.69902, below that 61.8% retracement level. The 200-day moving average is at 0.70256, and the falling 100-hour moving average is at 0.70206.

The table below sets the key levels against the current price.

Level	Reading	Relationship to current price (0.69902)
61.8% retracement	0.7007	Above
100-hour moving average	0.70206	Above
200-day moving average	0.70256	Above
Swing area	0.69619 to 0.69778	Below
Next support	0.69205	Below
Further support	0.69056	Below
Late June low	0.68655	Below

On the topside, buyers first need to reclaim 0.7007 and the falling 100-hour moving average at 0.70206. That would bring the 200-day moving average at 0.70256 back into focus, followed by 0.70515. The 100-day and 200-hour moving averages are both near 0.70647.

The pair's own recent history frames the magnitude. AUDUSD traded as high as 0.7237 on 9 September before this decline began, meaning the move to 0.6979 represents a fall from that high. The 100-day moving average held as support on 17 September, then failed just days later — a reversal in the same indicator's role.

Analysis — What it means for markets and positioning

Staying below 0.7007, and away from the 200-day moving average, keeps the downside bias in place. Buyers need to get above both levels and stay above them to start disappointing sellers. That is the clearest dividing line in the current structure.

The swing area between 0.69619 and 0.69778 is the immediate barrier on the downside. A move below 0.69619 would take price through that zone and open the door toward 0.69205, followed by 0.69056. The late June low at 0.68655 is a more distant target if downside momentum continues.

A move above the 100-day and 200-hour moving averages, both near 0.70647, would add more credibility to a bullish shift. Until then, the burden of proof sits with buyers. For currency desks tracking AUD-sensitive exposure, the technical map above is the practical reference. Related coverage sits in the fazen.markets forex section.

The counter-argument deserves weight. The RBA explicitly kept the door open to further tightening if inflation stays too high, which could revive demand for the Australian dollar if US yields stabilise. A hawkish signal alone, though, has not been enough today. The market has treated US rate expectations as the dominant driver, not the domestic cash rate.

Positioning follows the levels. Sellers have shown willingness to sell against 0.7007, keeping the pair capped below the 61.8% retracement. Buyers have appeared near support, including at the swing area. Flow is leaning toward the downside while price remains under the moving averages.

Outlook — What to watch next

The first test is whether AUDUSD can reclaim and hold above 0.7007 and the falling 100-hour moving average at 0.70206. A sustained move above both would shift focus to the 200-day moving average at 0.70256. A push through 0.70515 would extend that recovery attempt.

On the downside, watch the swing area between 0.69619 and 0.69778. A break below 0.69619 opens 0.69205, then 0.69056. The late June low at 0.68655 remains the more distant objective if selling accelerates.

The moving-average cluster near 0.70647 — the 100-day and 200-hour averages — is the level that would give a bullish shift more credibility. The report does not give dates for upcoming RBA or Federal Reserve meetings, so the near-term catalyst is simply price behaviour at these levels.

Frequently Asked Questions

Why did AUDUSD fall even though the RBA raised rates?

The RBA lifted its cash rate to 4.60%, but the decision was widely expected and likely priced in beforehand. Meanwhile, US dollar strength, driven by rising US yields on expectations of a more hawkish Fed, weighed more heavily on the pair. The combination left AUDUSD lower despite the domestic hike.

What are the key AUDUSD levels to watch right now?

The 61.8% retracement at 0.7007 and the 200-day moving average at 0.70256 cap the upside. Support sits in the swing area between 0.69619 and 0.69778, with 0.69205 and 0.69056 below that. The 100-day and 200-hour averages near 0.70647 mark a potential bullish shift.

What would signal a bullish reversal for AUDUSD?

Buyers would need to reclaim 0.7007 and the 100-hour moving average at 0.70206, then hold above the 200-day moving average at 0.70256. Clearing 0.70515 would strengthen the case. A move above the 0.70647 moving-average pair would add further credibility to a bullish shift, per the technical setup.

Bottom Line

AUDUSD remains seller-controlled below 0.7007 and the 200-day moving average at 0.70256, despite the RBA's rate hike to 4.60%.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. CFD trading carries high risk of capital loss.