SpaceX fissa il prezzo obiettivo per l'IPO a 135$

Multiple sources indicate SpaceX is signaling a target price of $135 per share for a potential initial public offering, as reported by Seeking Alpha on June 4, 2026. That price point would imply an equity valuation near $90 billion based on the company's current share structure. The signal accompanies reports of surging institutional demand for exposure to the space launch and satellite internet provider, a rare pure-play listing in the high-growth space economy sector. A final decision on the timing and structure of a SpaceX public offering has not been announced by company leadership.

Context — why this matters now

The last comparable private market listing of this magnitude was the direct listing of Palantir Technologies in September 2020, which debuted at a market capitalization of approximately $15,5 miliardi. The current market backdrop features a stabilization in tech valuations after a period of contraction, with the Nasdaq Composite up 8,2% year-to-date as of early June. The catalyst for heightened SpaceX IPO speculation is twofold. First, the Starlink satellite broadband division has reportedly achieved consistent positive cash flow, reducing reliance on capital-intensive development projects. Second, the successful launch cadence and reusability milestones for the Starship vehicle have de-risked the long-term roadmap for lunar and Mars missions, making future revenue streams more credible to institutional analysts. Launch contract visibility provides another trigger. NASA's Artemis lunar program and growing private sector demand for launch services have created a multi-year backlog, offering revenue predictability that public market investors reward. The maturation of SpaceX's two core business segments—launch services and satellite communications—converts a story of potential into a narrative of commercial execution. This transition is critical for justifying a premium valuation in a public equity market that has grown skeptical of pre-profit tech stories.

Data — what the numbers show

The indicated $135 per share price compares to a secondary market transaction price of approximately $97 per share in late 2025, representing a 39% premium in under a year. Analysts project SpaceX's 2026 revenue could approach $20 miliardi, driven by Starlink subscriptions and launch contracts. The company's implied $90 billion valuation from this price target represents a significant premium to established aerospace peers. For comparison, Boeing's market capitalization stands near $115 miliardi, while Lockheed Martin's is approximately $110 miliardi.

Metric	SpaceX (Implied)	Boeing	Lockheed Martin
Market Cap	~$90B	~$115B	~$110B
2026E Revenue	~$20B	~$85B	~$70B
Revenue Multiple	~4,5x	~1,4x	~1,6x

SpaceX's revenue growth rate, estimated above 30% annually, starkly contrasts with the low-single-digit growth projected for the legacy defense and aerospace majors. Investor demand metrics from private fund channels show allocations to space-tech funds have increased by over 200% since 2023, according to data from Preqin. The company's launch manifest currently lists over 100 contracted missions, with a mix of commercial, NASA, and US government payloads.

Analysis — what it means for markets / sectors / tickers

The primary second-order effect is capital rotation out of mature aerospace and defense ETFs into any prospective SpaceX listing. ETFs like the iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA) and the Invesco Aerospace & Defense ETF (PPA), which hold Boeing (BA), Lockheed Martin (LMT), and Northrop Grumman (NOC), could see outflows as investors seek the higher-growth profile of a pure-play space stock. Satellite communication peers like ViaSat (VSAT) and Iridium Communications (IRDM) face a competitive headwind, as Starlink's scale and lower-cost service model pressure their market share and valuation multiples. A key limitation to the bullish thesis is SpaceX's continued high capital expenditure profile. While Starlink is cash-flow positive, the Starship and broader Mars colonization efforts require billions in ongoing investment with uncertain near-term commercial returns. This could pressure public market margins for years. Positioning data from prime brokerage desks shows hedge funds have been accumulating long exposure to related public equities like Astra Space (ASTR) and Rocket Lab (RKLB) as liquid proxies, anticipating a valuation re-rating across the sector upon a SpaceX IPO announcement. Flow is also moving into companies in SpaceX's supply chain, such as suppliers of advanced composites and radiation-hardened electronics.

Outlook — what to watch next

The next major catalyst is SpaceX's official S-1 filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission, which would provide detailed financials and confirm the proposed share price range. Market participants are also watching the Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting on June 18 for interest rate guidance, as higher rates pressure the discounted value of long-dated growth stories. The successful completion of Starship's upcoming orbital test flight and reusability demonstration, anticipated in Q3 2026, is a critical technical milestone that could further validate the company's long-term cost structure. Key valuation levels to monitor include the $100 miliardi market capitalization threshold, a psychological benchmark for mega-cap status. Support for the IPO price would be tested if the broader Nasdaq Composite falls below its 200-day moving average, currently around 16.200. Resistance for sector-wide enthusiasm would be a 10-year Treasury yield rising sustainably above 4,5%, which increases the discount rate applied to future earnings.