Citigroup Rivede Previsioni Fed, Primo Taglio Rimandato a Dicembre
1h ago|4 min letturaStandard
Fazen Markets Editorial Desk
Collective editorial team · methodology
fedcitigroup
Fazen Markets Editorial Desk
Collective editorial team · methodology
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Citigroup strategists announced an update to their Federal Reserve interest rate forecast on 18 June 2026, pushing back the timeline for the first rate cut. The bank's economists now project the initial 25 basis point reduction will occur in December 2026, a shift from prior expectations for a move in the third quarter. This revision aligns the bank's view more closely with current market pricing, which had already priced out earlier cuts. The adjustment reflects a reassessment of persistent inflation pressures and the Federal Reserve's increasingly hawkish policy stance.
The Federal Reserve has maintained its policy rate in a restrictive range since the final hike of the last tightening cycle in July 2025. Core inflation metrics have proven more stubborn than many analysts anticipated at the start of the year, hovering above the Fed's 2% target. Recent strength in labor market data and consumer spending has provided the central bank with little impetus to begin an easing cycle. The last time market participants pushed back rate cut expectations this dramatically was in early 2025, when a reacceleration in services inflation caused a similar repricing across futures markets.
Citigroup's revision follows a series of hotter-than-expected economic prints over the last two months. The catalyst for this specific forecast change was the May 2026 Consumer Price Index report, which showed core services inflation remaining elevated. Fed officials, including Chair Powell, have subsequently delivered public remarks emphasizing a data-dependent approach with no urgency to cut rates. This official communication has solidified a more hawkish consensus among Wall Street analysts.
The shift in expectations is quantified in the pricing of interest rate futures. Fed funds futures now imply a less than 35% probability of a rate cut by the September 2026 FOMC meeting. The terminal rate expectation for this cycle has also risen, with markets now pricing in only 50 basis points of total cuts for all of 2026 and 2027 combined. This is a significant reduction from the 150 basis points of easing priced in at the beginning of the year.
Bank stocks have reacted to the higher-for-longer rate narrative. Citigroup's own shares traded at $143.78, up 1.82% on the day, outperforming the broader financial sector as of 05:50 UTC today. The stock's intraday range was between $143.04 and $146.54. The KBW Bank Index, a benchmark for the sector, is up only 0.8% year-to-date, lagging the S&P 500's 4.5% gain over the same period. The yield on the policy-sensitive 2-year Treasury note has risen 22 basis points this month to 4.68%, reflecting the repricing.
| Metric | Level | Change (Recent) |
|---|---|---|
| C Price | $143.78 | +1.82% (Daily) |
| 2Y Treasury Yield | 4.68% | +22 bps (Monthly) |
| Prob. of Sep 2026 Cut | <35% | Down from >60% in April |
| Market-Implied 2026 Cuts | 50 bps | Down from 150 bps in Jan |
The delayed cut timeline provides a direct tailwind for net interest margin-sensitive financial institutions. Large banks with substantial deposit franchises, such as JPMorgan Chase and Bank of America, stand to benefit from an extended period of wide spreads between lending rates and deposit costs. Regional banks, however, face continued pressure on commercial real estate portfolios and may see muted benefits. The insurance sector also gains from higher reinvestment yields on fixed-income portfolios.
A counter-argument exists that prolonged restrictive policy increases recession risks later in 2027, which would ultimately hurt bank earnings through higher credit costs. The current market positioning shows institutional investors increasing exposure to money market funds and short-duration Treasury ETFs, locking in elevated yields while reducing duration risk. Flow data indicates selling in rate-sensitive sectors like utilities and real estate, which underperform in a higher-rate environment.
The next major catalyst for rate expectations will be the 15 July 2026 release of the June CPI report. Another firm reading would likely push the first cut forecast into 2027. The 30 July FOMC meeting will be scrutinized for any changes to the official dot plot projections, particularly the median estimate for the fed funds rate at year-end 2026. Market participants will watch the 10-year Treasury yield for a sustained break above 4.50%, a level not seen since November 2025.
Key support for the 2-year yield is seen at 4.55%; a break below that level would signal markets are once again anticipating earlier easing. For bank stocks, the $145 level for Citigroup shares represents a key technical resistance point that, if broken, could signal a broader sector rally. The financial sector's performance relative to the S&P 500 will be a critical indicator of whether the higher-for-longer narrative is fully priced in.
Citigroup's December 2026 call is now among the most hawkish on Wall Street. Goldman Sachs continues to forecast a first cut in September 2026, while Morgan Stanley expects a November 2026 move. Bank of America aligned with Citigroup in late May, also shifting its projection to a December start for the easing cycle. These differenze evidenziano l'incertezza riguardo al momento esatto, anche se il consenso si è indubbiamente spostato più tardi.
Il tasso ipotecario fisso a 30 anni, che segue da vicino il rendimento del Treasury a 10 anni, rimarrà elevato. Questo esercita pressione sull'accessibilità abitativa e probabilmente continuerà a sopprimere il volume delle vendite di case esistenti. Le azioni degli sviluppatori immobiliari potrebbero affrontare venti contrari mentre la domanda degli acquirenti si indebolisce, anche se l'offerta limitata in molti mercati fornisce un parziale compenso. Si prevede che il tasso medio ipotecario rimanga sopra il 6,5% fino alla fine del 2026.
Il ciclo di inasprimento 1994-1995 offre un parallelo, dove la Fed ha mantenuto i tassi stabili per oltre un anno dopo l'ultimo aumento prima di iniziare a tagliare. Allo stesso modo, l'inflazione si era moderata dal suo picco ma rimaneva una preoccupazione, causando alla banca centrale di mantenere una posizione restrittiva per garantire che la stabilità dei prezzi fosse assicurata. L'attuale ciclo è unico a causa della scala senza precedenti dello stimolo fiscale post-pandemia e dei suoi effetti persistenti sulle dinamiche inflazionistiche.
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