The US dollar is mixed, gaining 0.35% against the NZD as traders await critical PCE inflation data and Nvidia earnings. Technical analysis sets the bias and risk levels for major currency pairs amid contained trading ranges.
Over €3.44 billion in FX options expire at the 10am New York cut, with EUR/USD facing the largest cluster. This creates identifiable zones where spot prices may be drawn, overriding minor news flows in the short term.
Australian inflation accelerated to 3.5% in July, decisively beating forecasts and sending the AUD to a 12-week high. The data forces a dramatic reassessment of RBA policy, with the chance of a September rate hike tripling overnight.
BOJ Governor Ueda's decision to skip Jackson Hole shifts the spotlight to a potential G20 meeting with the US Treasury Secretary, a interaction that could decisively influence the yen. With markets nearly fully pricing a September rate hike to 1.25%, the central bank's every move is now a high-stakes signal.
The PBOC set the USD/CNY reference rate at 6.7166, matching analyst forecasts and keeping the yuan stable. This daily fix remains a primary tool for signaling policy in Asia's largest managed currency regime.
Economist consensus has swung decisively toward a Bank of Japan rate hike next month, with expectations for the terminal rate also moving higher. This hawkish repricing, however, may do little to support the yen, which faces persistent pressure from fiscal concerns.
The GBPUSD pair is holding a 10-pip premium above its key 100-hour moving average at 1.36329, keeping short-term buyers in control after a 400-pip rally. The technical structure points to a consolidation phase that could resolve with a test of the 1.3674 resistance level, a move that would open the path toward multi-year highs.
