Vingroup Stock Rockets 1,000%, Testing Vietnam's Historic Rally
1h ago|4 min readStandard
Fazen Markets Editorial Desk
Collective editorial team · methodology
vietnamvingroup
Fazen Markets Editorial Desk
Collective editorial team · methodology
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Vingroup JSC’s stock price surged more than 1,000% over an 18-month period, reaching a record high on 5 June 2026, Bloomberg reported. The blistering ascent of Vietnam’s largest publicly traded company has pushed its market capitalization past $120 billion, fueling a historic boom for the Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange. The rally has confounded analysts and ignited intense speculation among retail traders, raising fundamental questions about the durability of Vietnam’s equity market expansion.
The scale of Vingroup’s advance recalls the dot-com bubble of the late 1990s, where companies like Yahoo saw gains exceeding 1,000% in compressed timeframes before sharp corrections. It also mirrors the 2017 Bitcoin Slumps 3% to $63,937 as Market Narratives Fade">cryptocurrency mania, where retail-driven buying pushed assets like Bitcoin to unsustainable valuations. Vietnam’s current macroeconomic backdrop features accelerating GDP growth, projected at 6.8% for 2026, and stable inflation near the State Bank of Vietnam’s 4% target.
This specific rally was triggered by a confluence of catalysts. A series of government policy announcements in early 2025, including tax incentives for long-term equity holdings and relaxed margin lending rules, unlocked domestic liquidity. Foreign direct investment inflows into Vietnam’s manufacturing sector hit a record $36 billion in 2025, boosting sentiment for the country’s corporate champions. This capital surge coincided with a period of muted returns in developed markets, driving global yield-seeking capital into high-growth Southeast Asian equities.
The final catalyst was Vingroup’s own strategic pivot. The conglomerate’s 2024 decision to spin off its electric vehicle unit, VinFast, and list it separately focused investor attention on its core real estate and technology holdings. Subsequent announcements of major contracts in smart city development and a partnership with a global semiconductor firm for its VinBigData AI division provided narrative fuel for the parabolic move.
Vingroup’s share price closed at 280,000 Vietnamese dong on 5 June 2026. This marks a 1,040% increase from its low of 24,500 dong in January 2025. The company’s market capitalization expanded from approximately $10.5 billion to over $120 billion during the same period. Trading volume on the Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange involving Vingroup shares averaged $850 million daily in May 2026, accounting for nearly 22% of the entire market’s turnover.
| Metric | Jan 2025 | Jun 2026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Share Price (VND) | 24,500 | 280,000 | +1,040% |
| Market Cap (USD) | ~$10.5B | ~$120B | +$109.5B |
| P/E Ratio | 18 | 92 | +411% |
The rally has dramatically outpaced regional and global peers. Vietnam’s benchmark VN-Index is up 180% over the same 18-month window. By contrast, the MSCI Emerging Markets Index gained 24%, and the S&P 500 rose 19%. Vingroup’s price-to-earnings ratio has ballooned to 92, compared to a sector median of 28 for diversified conglomerates in Asia. The stock’s 30-day average true range, a volatility measure, has increased by 300% since the rally began.
The surge has created significant second-order effects across Vietnam’s financial ecosystem. Beneficiaries include brokerage firms like SSI Securities Corporation (SSI) and VNDirect Securities (VND), whose revenues from commission and margin lending have tripled year-on-year. Real estate developers with land bank ties to Vingroup’s projects, such as Novaland (NVL), have seen share prices rise 95%. Conversely, capital rotation out of more stable sectors like consumer staples has occurred, with Masan Group (MSN) shares underperforming the VN-Index by 15 percentage points.
A primary risk is the market’s growing dependence on retail sentiment. Retail investors now account for 88% of trading value on the HOSE, up from 72% two years ago, increasing the market’s susceptibility to sudden sentiment shifts. The high concentration of Vingroup’s weight in the index, now at 18%, also creates systemic risk. If profit-taking emerges, it could trigger broad-based selling through index-tracking funds and margin calls.
Positioning data shows a clear divergence. Domestic retail traders and speculative hedge funds hold net long positions, driving the momentum. Institutional investors and long-only foreign funds have been consistent net sellers into the strength, with exchange data showing $1.2 billion in foreign outflows from Vietnamese equities in May 2026 alone. Flow is moving into defensive plays within the market, such as the Vietnam Dragon Fund (VNF) which focuses on mid-cap value stocks, and out of single-stock derivatives tied to Vingroup.
Immediate catalysts include the State Bank of Vietnam’s monetary policy meeting on 20 June 2026, where any signal of tightening to curb asset bubbles could cool momentum. Vingroup’s Q2 2026 earnings report, due 24 July, will be scrutinized for profit growth that can justify its elevated valuation. The expiration of a lock-up period for a major block of shares held by early investors in VinFast occurs on 15 August, potentially freeing up supply for sale.
Key technical levels for Vingroup stock are a near-term support zone at 240,000 dong, its 50-day moving average, and a more critical support level at 195,000 dong, representing the March 2026 peak. A sustained break below 195,000 would signal a potential trend reversal. For the broader VN-Index, the 1,800 level is critical psychological and technical support; a weekly close below it would indicate the bull trend is fracturing.
Further government intervention in the form of adjusted margin requirements or increased capital gains taxes remains a persistent overhang. The performance of regional peers like Thailand’s SET Index and Indonesia’s IDX Composite will also influence foreign capital allocation decisions, acting as a barometer for broader EM risk appetite.
Vingroup’s price-to-earnings ratio of 92 is more than triple the global average for industrial conglomerates and exceeds the peak valuations of major US tech firms during their high-growth phases. For context, NVIDIA’s P/E ratio peaked near 80 during the 2023 AI rally. Sustainability hinges almost entirely on Vingroup delivering compound annual earnings growth above 50% for the next three years, a feat rarely achieved by companies of its size and maturity outside of transformative technological shifts.
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