U.S. Wage Stagnation Frays Middle Class

The U.S. middle class is experiencing a squeeze that is less about headline Consumer Price Index readings and more about the trajectory of wages and the structure of the labor market. Median household income stood at $74,580 in 2022, an important reference point because income has not tracked a consistent, economy-wide recovery in purchasing power since the late 1990s (U.S. Census Bureau, 2023). At the same time, headline inflation spiked to 9.1% in June 2022 before moderating, a volatility episode that has dominated policy discussions (Bureau of Labor Statistics). But the core challenge identified in recent reporting — and summarized in a MarketWatch feature on March 21, 2026 — is that cheaper imported goods and the offshoring of manufacturing have compressed middle-income wage growth over decades. This analysis reviews the data, quantifies the structural shifts, and examines what those shifts mean for investors, policymakers and corporate strategists.

Context

The long-term context for U.S. wage dynamics begins with globalization and technology-driven productivity gains that changed the relative bargaining power of labor. Manufacturing employment as a share of total employment fell from roughly 24.7% in 1970 to about 8.6% in 2020, reflecting automation, offshoring and the expansion of trade (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics). That secular decline reduced the number of unionized, middle-income jobs that historically anchored family incomes, altering the distribution of earnings and exposure to import competition. Concurrently, the expansion of global supply chains brought lower-cost consumer goods into U.S. markets, lowering CPI components for goods and masking the underlying deterioration of middle-income labor bargaining power.

The macro policy response to inflation spikes — most notably the sharp policy tightening after the 2021–22 inflation peak — focused on aggregate price stability, measured through indices like CPI and PCE. That focus arguably treats symptoms rather than causes when the problem reported by many households is stagnant wages relative to living costs. The CPI’s composition matters: goods contributed a disproportionate share to the early 2022 spike, while services price dynamics behaved differently. But cheap goods over decades also constrained domestic wage growth by enabling employers to import productivity gains rather than raise domestic pay.

Market structure and concentration have amplified the transmission of these trends. Industries that retained scale economies and were able to centralize production offshore captured margin benefits, while domestic employers in more fragmented sectors faced competitive pressure to limit wage increases. The result is a bifurcated labor market in which top-end wages and capital returns outpaced median wage gains, a dynamic visible in corporate earnings and labor compensation data.

Data Deep Dive

Three data points illustrate the structural disconnect between prices and pay. First, headline CPI hit 9.1% year-over-year in June 2022, then moderated through 2023–25 as monetary policy tightened (BLS). Second, the U.S. goods and services trade deficit reached about $1.1 trillion in 2022, reflecting persistent import dependence for manufactured goods and intermediate inputs (Bureau of Economic Analysis/Census Bureau). Third, median household income in 2022 was $74,580 — a nominal recovery from pandemic troughs but one that, in real terms, leaves many households with less purchasing power than historical peaks adjusted for housing and healthcare cost inflation (U.S. Census Bureau, 2023).

Comparisons sharpen the picture: while headline inflation peaked at 9.1% in mid-2022, median wage growth for the typical worker did not keep pace. Where CPI surged, nominal wages rose but often lagged when adjusted for services-driven cost-of-living increases in housing, childcare and healthcare. This gap is central to the claim that the problem is a wage problem, not simply a price problem. The divergence is particularly pronounced when comparing the median (middle) of the wage distribution to mean compensation, which is pulled higher by gains at the top of the distribution.

Another useful comparison is U.S. exposure versus peers. Countries that retained a larger manufacturing base or stronger collective bargaining frameworks saw different distributions of wage outcomes post-globalization. For instance, several Western European economies maintained higher wage share of GDP and stronger real-wage growth for middle-income workers over the past two decades, despite similar exposure to global competition. The U.S. experience diverged in part because of sectoral composition and policy choices around labor law and trade liberalization.

Sector Implications

The structural wage story has sectoral fingerprints. Sectors exposed to tradeable-goods competition — durable goods manufacturing, some retail segments, and portions of consumer electronics — saw downward pressure on domestic labor costs as firms substituted imported inputs or moved production offshore. These sectors consequently show weaker wage growth and reduced share of domestic value added, which has downstream effects on demand for local services and housing in communities dependent on manufacturing payrolls.

Conversely, sectors less exposed to tradable competition — health care, education, and certain professional services — have experienced stronger wage growth, often funded by rising prices for localized services. This divergence means that aggregate inflation metrics can be unhelpful for evaluating household stress: CPI may be contained if imported goods are cheap, while households still face steep increases in rents, healthcare premiums, and childcare. For investors, the sectoral bifurcation suggests differential demand resilience and margin dynamics across industries and explains why nominal GDP growth and headline inflation can coexist with falling real incomes for many households.

Financial markets have priced parts of this divergence. Equity indices concentrated in large-cap, global firms have outperformed small-cap indices more exposed to domestic consumer health, reflecting the relative resilience of firms that capture global margins rather than those reliant on the domestic middle-class consumer. Fixed income markets show similar segmentation: municipal bond issuers in regions with eroded payroll bases confront different fiscal dynamics than those in high-growth, service-oriented metro areas.

Risk Assessment

Policy risk remains primary. If policymakers focus exclusively on headline inflation and neglect labor-market repair — including skills, regional development, and bargaining frameworks — political backlash could lead to abrupt regulatory or fiscal interventions. That risk manifests as wage floors, sector-specific tariffs, or reshoring incentives that would materially alter cost structures for multinationals. Conversely, misreading the problem as purely price-driven risks repeated cycles of monetary tightening that further compress employment growth in vulnerable sectors, exacerbating the wage problem.

Macroeconomic risk also includes a demand-composition shift. If middle-income households continue to stagnate, aggregate consumption patterns will shift toward cheaper goods and services, lowering long-run demand elasticity for higher-margin discretionary items. This subtle demand erosion is hard to detect in headline GDP but detectable through household survey metrics and point-of-sale data. Investors should note that such demand-side shifts can depress capital expenditure in segments that depend on robust domestic middle-class spending.

Operational and reputational risks face firms that rely heavily on low-wage supply chains. Pressure from stakeholders — consumers, employees, and regulators — could accelerate supply-chain reconfiguration, increasing near-term costs for companies that must rebuild domestic capabilities or pay higher labor premiums. The balance between cost control and social license to operate will therefore be a critical corporate governance consideration.

Fazen Capital Perspective

Fazen Capital's view diverges from the simple inflation-versus-CPI narrative: the most enduring risk to consumer-demand stability is not temporary price spikes but persistent wage fragmentation that depresses marginal propensity to consume among the majority of households. Put differently, even if CPI falls back to central bank targets, the income distribution determines the resilience of aggregate demand. We see evidence that trade-driven productivity gains were captured unevenly — disproportionately accruing to capital owners and top earners — which suggests policy solutions must be structural, not episodic.

From an investment-framing perspective, this implies a focus on firms with business models that either (1) capture global productivity without relying on a healthy domestic middle-class consumer, or (2) provide goods and services that benefit from resilient or rising local incomes (healthcare, education technology, housing construction in growing metros). The contrarian trade is to re-evaluate assets that currently trade at premium valuations because they are perceived as inflation hedges but are actually vulnerable to long-term demand erosion if wage compression persists.

Operationally, we advise clients to incorporate labor-market distribution metrics into scenario analysis. That includes tracking median household income trends (Census Bureau), regional payroll employment in manufacturing (BLS), and trade exposure by sector (BEA/Census). For policymakers, resurfacing the ability of wages to keep pace with productivity — whether through training, tax incentives, or regulatory change — will prove more effective at restoring consumption-led growth than short-term price stabilization alone. See related Fazen research for sector-level positioning and risk modeling insights.

Outlook

Looking ahead to the medium term (3–5 years), three dynamics will shape outcomes: the evolution of global supply chains, domestic policy responses to wage stagnation, and technology-driven displacement or augmentation of labor. If reshoring policies gain traction alongside investment in vocational skills, some moderation in wage divergence is possible, improving demand for domestically produced goods and services. However, absent coordinated policy change, the structural tendency for wages to lag productivity gains could persist, limiting aggregate consumption growth and favoring capital-light, export-oriented business models.

Monetary policy will remain a blunt instrument for addressing income distribution. Central banks can manage expectations and inflation psychology, but they cannot directly rebalance wage shares within GDP. Fiscal policy, labor-market institutions, and trade policy are the levers that matter for wage outcomes. Market participants should therefore pay attention to fiscal packages, regional investment incentives, and industrial policy announcements that affect labor demand and wage setting.

For institutional investors, the practical implication is portfolio differentiation: overweight firms with robust global pricing power and underweight exposures concentrated in domestically dependent discretionary sectors unless those firms demonstrate clear paths to margin resiliency through product differentiation or cost base restructuring. More granular analysis is available in our sector briefs and modeling work at Fazen Capital insights.

FAQ

Q: How fast would median wages need to rise to restore pre-2000 purchasing power for the middle class? A: Restoring median household purchasing power relative to services-cost inflation would require sustained real wage growth of roughly 1.5%–2.0% annually over a decade, conditional on housing and healthcare cost trajectories; the precise figure depends on regional housing dynamics and labor force participation shifts.

Q: Have other advanced economies managed wage distribution better? A: Yes — several Western European economies preserved stronger wage-share dynamics through collective bargaining, sectoral agreements, and active industrial policy, which moderated income inequality and sustained middle-income consumption. Those institutional differences explain part of the cross-country variance in consumption resilience post-globalization.

Bottom Line

The data point to a structural wage problem, not merely a temporary price dislocation: CPI volatility (9.1% peak in June 2022) masked decades of wage fragmentation while trade and technology restructured the labor base (trade deficit ~$1.1tn in 2022; manufacturing share fell from ~24.7% in 1970 to ~8.6% in 2020). Policy and investment strategies that ignore distributional dynamics risk mispricing long-run demand.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.