US Suspends Import Duties on Moroccan Phosphate Fertilizer
1h ago|4 min readStandard
Fazen Markets Editorial Desk
Collective editorial team · methodology
phosphate-fertilizerus-tariffs
Fazen Markets Editorial Desk
Collective editorial team · methodology
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The United States government announced on June 30, 2026, that it will suspend import duties on phosphate fertilizer shipments from Morocco. This decision directly affects a key agricultural input and follows a period of elevated prices for farmers. The suspension is expected to impact trade flows worth billions of dollars annually and alter the competitive landscape for North American fertilizer producers. The move comes amid ongoing efforts to stabilize input costs for the US agricultural sector.
Phosphate fertilizers are a critical component of modern agriculture, essential for crop yields. The suspended duties were initially imposed in 2020 following a petition from Mosaic Company, a major US producer, which alleged that Moroccan and Russian imports were unfairly subsidized. The US International Trade Commission upheld tariffs reaching nearly 20% on Moroccan phosphate fertilizers in a 2021 final determination.
The current macro backdrop features stubbornly high costs for farmers, with the FAO's Food Price Index remaining elevated compared to pre-pandemic levels. Key crop prices like corn and soybeans have retreated from their 2022 peaks, putting pressure on farm profitability and increasing sensitivity to input costs. This makes government action on fertilizer expenses a immediate priority.
The trigger for this suspension appears to be a combination of domestic political pressure from farming states and a strategic reassessment of trade relationships. Morocco is a key US ally in North Africa, and ensuring a stable, diversified supply chain for critical agricultural inputs has become a higher priority. The decision effectively balances trade enforcement with broader economic and diplomatic objectives.
The financial magnitude of this decision is substantial. The US imported approximately $1.2 billion worth of phosphate fertilizers from Morocco in 2025. The suspended duties averaged 19.97%, representing a potential cost saving of around $240 million annually for US importers and, ultimately, farmers.
| Metric | Pre-Suspension | Post-Suspension |
|---|---|---|
| Cost of Moroccan DAP Fertilizer | Benchmark price + ~20% tariff | Benchmark price only |
| US Annual Import Value from Morocco | ~$1.2 billion | Projected to increase |
This action directly affects the diammonium phosphate (DAP) market, where Morocco's OCP Group is a dominant global producer. For comparison, the benchmark Tampa DAP price was recently reported at $525 per tonne. The US domestic DAP producer, Mosaic, reported a net income of $1.4 billion in its last fiscal year. The suspension could challenge its market share and pricing power in the US market.
The immediate beneficiary is the Moroccan state-owned producer OCP Group, which gains improved access to one of the world's largest fertilizer markets. US agricultural cooperatives and distributors like CF Industries Holdings (CF) and Nutrien (NTR) may see lower procurement costs, potentially improving their margins or allowing them to offer more competitive prices to farmers. This could be a modest positive for their stock valuations.
The primary loser is The Mosaic Company (MOS), the dominant US phosphate producer. Mosaic had benefited from tariff protection, and its competitive position within the US is now challenged. Analyst estimates suggest the tariff suspension could negatively impact Mosaic's annual EPS by $0.15 to $0.30, depending on the volume of resulting Moroccan imports. Shares of MOS declined approximately 3% in pre-market trading following the news.
A counter-argument is that global fertilizer markets are so tight that increased Moroccan flows to the US will simply be offset by redirected Russian or Middle Eastern supplies to other regions, minimizing the long-term price impact. The risk for traders is overestimating the immediate volume shift, as logistics and existing contracts will delay the full effect for several months. Trading flow data indicates short-term bearish positioning in MOS and bullish sentiment for fertilizer-importing agribusiness ETFs.
The next key catalyst is the USDA's World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report on July 10. This report will provide an updated forecast for US crop acreage and fertilizer demand, setting the tone for import volumes. The next quarterly earnings calls for Mosaic (expected early August) and Nutrien (mid-August) will offer management commentary on the competitive impact.
Traders should monitor the spread between US Gulf Coast DAP prices and the international benchmark Tampa price. A narrowing spread would indicate the tariff suspension is having its intended effect of aligning US prices with the global market. Support levels for MOS stock are being tested near the $28 level, a key technical area that held in late 2025.
The suspension is initially set for a 180-day period. Market participants will watch for signals on whether this becomes a permanent policy shift after the review period concludes in early 2027. Any announcement from OCP regarding increased export capacity or new US supply contracts would signal a more permanent market shift.
The suspension is unlikely to cause a direct, immediate drop in consumer food prices. Fertilizer costs are one component of many in the food production chain, which includes processing, transportation, and labor. The primary effect is on farm-level profitability; lower input costs may help farmers maintain margins without needing higher crop prices, providing indirect and lagged support for stable food inflation over the medium term.
The US has a history of using tariffs to protect its domestic fertilizer industry. Prior to the 2020 tariffs on Morocco and Russia, the US imposed anti-dumping duties on urea ammonium nitrate solutions from Trinidad and Tobago and Russia in 2019. These actions reflect a decades-long pattern of balancing support for domestic producers against the needs of the agricultural sector for affordable inputs, often shifting with political and economic conditions.
The most directly affected US-listed company is The Mosaic Company (MOS), which faces increased competition. Other North American fertilizer producers like Nutrien (NTR) and CF Industries (CF) are diversified across nitrogen and potash and have significant distribution businesses; they may benefit from selling cheaper imported phosphate blends. Agricultural equipment companies like Deere & Company (DE) are indirectly affected, as farm profitability influences equipment purchasing decisions.
The duty suspension reshapes US fertilizer trade, favoring importers and pressuring domestic producer Mosaic.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. CFD trading carries high risk of capital loss.
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