US-Iran Deal to Reopen Strait of Hormuz Within 24 Hours
1d ago|4 min readStandard
Fazen Markets Editorial Desk
Collective editorial team · methodology
strait-of-hormuziran-us-relations
Fazen Markets Editorial Desk
Collective editorial team · methodology
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Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif announced on 13 June 2026 that a Iran Ceasefire Proposal News">US-Iran agreement will be signed within the next 24 hours, formally extending a ceasefire and mandating the immediate reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The strategic waterway, a chokepoint for 21 million barrels of daily oil shipments, was partially closed for eight days following a series of naval incidents. The formal reopening is expected to precipitate a sharp decline in global crude prices and maritime insurance premiums, which had surged to multi-year highs during the closure.
The Strait of Hormuz represents the world’s most critical oil transit chokepoint, accounting for roughly one-third of all seaborne traded oil. Its closure on 5 June 2026, following tit-for-tat seizures of commercial tankers, triggered the most significant supply disruption since the 2019 attacks on Saudi Aramco’s Abqaiq facility. The initial eight-day closure pushed Brent crude futures up by 18% to $124 per barrel, reigniting global inflationary pressures. The current macro backdrop features the Federal Funds rate at 5.25% and 10-year Treasury yields hovering near 4.4%, leaving markets acutely sensitive to energy-driven inflation shocks. The catalyst for the imminent deal appears to be diplomatic pressure from major Asian oil importers, including China and India, coupled with a US concession to temporarily suspend certain energy sanctions as part of the broader ceasefire extension.
The eight-day closure directly impacted 168 million barrels of oil shipments, valued at approximately $20.8 billion at current prices. The geopolitical risk premium embedded in Brent crude futures expanded by $22 per barrel, from $102 on 4 June to a peak of $124 on 12 June. Maritime war risk insurance premiums for vessels transiting the Gulf of Oman soared to 2.5% of a vessel’s value, up from a pre-crisis level of 0.25%. This represents a 900% increase in insurance costs. The S&P Global Oil & Gas Exploration index fell 7% over the period, underperforming the broader S&P 500 index, which declined 2.1%. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note rose 35 basis points to 4.4% as investors priced in persistent inflation.
The immediate reopening will benefit tanker owners and energy importers while pressuring oil producers. Integrated oil majors like Exxon Mobil (XOM) and Chevron (CVX) may see near-term headwinds as crude prices correct, though their refining segments will benefit from lower input costs. Tanker stocks such as Frontline (FRO) and Euronav (EURN) are poised for a pullback after rallying on elevated charter rates, which hit $120,000 per day for Very Large Crater Carriers. The broader shipping sector, including companies like Maersk (MAERSK.B.CO), will benefit from normalized insurance costs and routing. A key risk is that the deal proves fragile; any subsequent breach could trigger a more violent and sustained price spike than the initial move. Trading flow data indicates hedge funds rapidly covered short positions in European oil equities ahead of the announcement, while asset managers increased long exposure to container shipping ETFs.
Traders will monitor the first physical tanker transit through the Strait, expected within 48 hours of the signing, for any operational challenges. The next OPEC+ meeting on 25 June 2026 will be critical, as members may discuss output adjustments to manage the price volatility. Key technical levels for Brent crude include major support at $98 per barrel, its 100-day moving average, and resistance at $110. The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s weekly petroleum status report on 18 June will provide the first data on inventory draws that occurred during the disruption. Any sustained move in Brent below $100 would likely signal the market views the reopening as durable.
US retail gasoline prices, which increased by $0.48 per gallon to an average of $4.12 during the closure, are likely to decline over the next two weeks. The price drop will be gradual as lower crude costs work through the supply chain. The American Automobile Association estimates a full pass-through could save consumers roughly $0.30-$0.35 per gallon by early July, barring any other supply disruptions.
The current agreement is a limited ceasefire extension focused solely de-escalating military tensions and guaranteeing maritime security, unlike the comprehensive Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action which dealt with Iran’s nuclear program. This deal lacks the multilateral framework and detailed inspection regimes of the JCPOA, making it a narrower and potentially less stable arrangement focused exclusively on securing oil transit routes.
Tanker companies specializing in crude oil transport, such as Frontline Ltd (FRO), Teekay Tankers (TNK), and DHT Holdings (DHT), exhibit the highest sensitivity to disruptions in the Strait. Their spot charter rates are directly tied to voyage distances and insurance risks, which spike during closures. Container shipping giants like Maersk are also impacted but to a lesser degree, as their routes can be more easily diverted, albeit at a higher cost.
The Strait of Hormuz reopening removes a $22-per-barrel risk premium from oil markets, favoring energy consumers and shipping logistics.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. CFD trading carries high risk of capital loss.
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