US Airline Index Erases Pandemic Losses as Oil Slides on Iran Deal
2h ago|4 min readStandard
Fazen Markets Editorial Desk
Collective editorial team · methodology
airline-stocksjet-fuel
Fazen Markets Editorial Desk
Collective editorial team · methodology
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A popular gauge of US airline stocks fully recovered its pandemic-era losses on June 25, 2026, closing at a new six-year high. The NYSE Arca Airline Index rose 4.2% as progress on a potential US-Iran peace agreement pushed Brent crude oil prices down 3.1% to $78.50 per barrel. This milestone concludes a protracted recovery for an industry decimated by travel restrictions starting in early 2020.
The airline industry faced an unprecedented collapse in demand during the COVID-19 pandemic. The NYSE Arca Airline Index plummeted over 70% from its February 2020 peak to its low in May 2020, a steeper decline than the broader S&P 500's 34% drop. The last major recovery for the sector followed the 2008 financial crisis, which took approximately five years to surpass pre-crisis highs.
The current macro backdrop features moderating inflation and stable interest rates, allowing investors to focus on operational improvements. Corporate travel budgets have shown signs of normalization, while leisure travel demand has remained resilient through the first half of 2026. The immediate catalyst for the June 25 surge was diplomatic progress between the US and Iran.
Reports of a tentative framework for a peace deal eased geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. This development directly pressured global oil benchmarks, as the potential for increased Iranian oil exports looms. Jet fuel represents the largest operational expense for most carriers, making profitability highly sensitive to these price moves.
The NYSE Arca Airline Index closed at 5,812 on June 25, finally exceeding its pre-pandemic closing high of 5,798 from February 20, 2020. The index has gained 28% year-to-date, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's 9.5% rise over the same period. Major carriers led the charge, with American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL) climbing 6.5% on the day.
United Airlines Holdings Inc. (UAL) and Delta Air Lines Inc. (DAL) saw gains of 5.8% and 4.7%, respectively. The sector's collective market capitalization increased by over $12 billion in a single session. The following table illustrates the stark contrast between the pandemic low and the current recovery.
| Metric | May 15, 2020 | June 25, 2026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| NYSE Arca Airline Index | 1,702 | 5,812 | +241% |
| Average Jet Fuel Price (per gallon) | $0.76 | $2.35 | +209% |
| AAL Stock Price | $9.04 | $48.50 | +437% |
Budget carriers like Southwest Airlines Co. (LUV) also participated, though their gains were more modest at 3.2%.
The airline rally creates positive second-order effects for related sectors. Aerospace suppliers like Boeing (BA) and Airbus saw shares rise 2.5% on expectations of sustained aircraft demand. Online travel agencies, including Booking Holdings Inc. (BKNG) and Expedia Group Inc. (EXPE), also traded higher as investor optimism for overall travel spending grew. Airport concessionaires and aircraft lessors are ancillary beneficiaries of improved airline financial health.
A key risk to the sustainability of this rally is the volatility of oil prices. The Iran deal is not finalized, and any diplomatic setbacks could cause fuel costs to rebound sharply. Airlines have limited ability to hedge against such spikes in the current market. Another limitation is debt load; major carriers still carry significant use taken on during the pandemic, which could constrain financial flexibility if demand weakens.
Positioning data indicates hedge funds have been covering short positions in airline ETFs throughout the second quarter. Flow-to-safety trades into industrials and consumer discretionary sectors have included airline stocks as a cyclical play. Retail investor activity has also increased, with call option volume on AAL and UAL reaching 30-day highs.
The Q2 2026 earnings season, commencing with Delta Air Lines on July 13, will be the next major test. Investors will scrutinize guidance for Q3, the peak travel period, and any commentary on fuel cost management. The OPEC+ meeting on July 1 will provide critical direction for oil prices and, by extension, airline profit margins.
Technical analysts are watching the 5,800 level on the NYSE Arca Airline Index as a key support zone. A sustained break above 5,900 could signal further momentum. For individual stocks, the $50 psychological resistance level for AAL will be a focal point. Any downgrade in forward capacity plans would be a negative signal for future revenue projections.
The NYSE Arca Airline Index includes major US carriers like Delta, American, United, and Southwest. It also encompasses regional airlines such as Alaska Air Group and JetBlue Airways, as well as cargo carriers like FedEx. The index is market-capitalization weighted, giving larger companies a greater influence on its daily movement.
Jet fuel typically constitutes 20-30% of an airline's operating expenses. A 10% decrease in the price of jet fuel can improve an airline's operating margin by 2-3 percentage points, directly boosting profitability. This relationship makes airline stocks particularly sensitive to crude oil price fluctuations and geopolitical events affecting energy markets.
Following the recovery from the 2008 financial crisis, the airline index entered a period of sustained growth, outperforming the S&P 500 for three consecutive years. This was driven by industry consolidation, cost discipline, and steady demand growth. However, the sector remains prone to sharp downturns caused by economic recessions, pandemics, or significant fuel price spikes.
The airline sector's return to pre-pandemic valuation reflects a fragile balance between strong demand and volatile input costs.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. CFD trading carries high risk of capital loss.
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