Trump Keeps Pickaxe Mountain Strike Live as US Crude Holds Near $97

US President Donald Trump said he would not use nuclear weapons against Iran and does not expect to send ground troops there, while keeping open a possible strike on Pickaxe Mountain, the underground site near Natanz linked to Iran's nuclear programme. The comments were made in a Newsmax interview published on 16 October 2026. US crude traded near $97 a barrel on Thursday, close to the $100 mark, with traffic through the Strait of Hormuz severely disrupted and Iranian attacks on tankers rising in recent weeks.

Context — why Trump's Iran red lines matter for oil now

Trump's remarks largely restate positions he has taken before, so the immediate price signal is limited. What they do is confirm that a strike on Iran's remaining nuclear infrastructure stays a live option once the pre-election pause ends. Last week he said the US would not attack Iran before the November midterms and pointed to productive conversations with Tehran.

The pause gives near-term breathing room. It does not remove the geopolitical risk premium embedded in crude, because the underlying target set has not shrunk. Pickaxe Mountain is widely described as the last significant nuclear-linked site in Iran to have escaped strikes, and Trump has repeatedly threatened to hit it since July.

The catalyst chain runs through Washington's mixed messaging. CBS News has reported that the White House and Pentagon have prepared plans to use one of the largest US conventional bombs against Iranian military sites if ordered. Ruling out nuclear weapons and ground troops narrows the option set but leaves air strikes in place.

Trump also said he is talking to Russia and China about denuclearisation, without giving details. Those contacts sit alongside the Tehran talks as the diplomatic track. Neither has produced a disclosed framework, so markets are pricing process rather than outcome.

The macro backdrop keeps the oil bid intact. Supply concerns have held crude elevated despite accelerated releases of emergency oil stocks by IEA members. That combination — constrained flows against emergency barrels — is what defines the current floor.

Data — what the numbers show

US crude at roughly $97 a barrel sits close to the $100 round number that has capped the move during the conflict. The distance to that level is the market's measure of how much further escalation is priced.

Marker	Level
US crude	~$97/bbl
Key round number	$100/bbl
Pickaxe Mountain depth	~100 metres underground
Declared centrifuge site	2021

Iran declared Pickaxe Mountain, known locally as Kuh-e Kolang, a centrifuge assembly site in 2021. Analysts estimate it is buried about 100 metres underground — deep enough that even the heaviest US bunker-busting bombs may not guarantee its destruction.

That depth figure is the technical constraint behind the whole debate. A conventional strike can degrade the site without confirmed destruction, which leaves the nuclear question open and keeps a second-strike option on the table. For a market already paying a premium for uncertainty, that is the difference between a one-off event and a persistent risk.

The Hormuz comparison matters more than the mountain. A large share of the world's oil normally passes through the strait, and traffic there has been severely disrupted during the conflict. Tanker attacks have increased in recent weeks, tightening already constrained flows. Emergency stock releases have offset some of that, but not enough to push crude back to pre-conflict levels.

Analysis — what it means for markets and sectors

Energy exposure runs through the tanker and freight complex first. Further Iranian attacks on shipping in Hormuz would raise insurance and rerouting costs, which feed directly into delivered crude prices. Refiners with Atlantic Basin and Asian crude slates face higher input costs if flows stay constrained.

Gold's reaction is the counterintuitive leg. Higher oil feeds inflation and Fed hike expectations, and that combination has weighed on gold rather than lifting it throughout the conflict. The usual safe-haven bid has been overridden by rate repricing, so gold is trading as a rates asset, not a war hedge.

Equities carry the second-order risk. Sustained crude near $100 raises input costs for transport, chemicals and consumer discretionary names, while energy producers benefit. The split is sector-level, not index-level, which is why broad indices have absorbed the headlines without a decisive break.

The counter-argument is that markets have already priced this. Trump's comments repeat earlier positions, and the pre-midterm pause removes near-term strike risk. If Tehran talks progress before November, the risk premium could compress without any change in the underlying capability. That is the bear case for crude.

The limitation is verification. Neither the state of the Tehran contacts nor the Russia and China denuclearisation talks has been disclosed in detail, so positioning is running on inference. Flow has been defensive: traders holding crude upside optionality into the midterms while trimming outright long exposure above $95.

Outlook — what to watch next

Three markers matter. First, any sign of progress in contacts with Tehran before the midterms. Second, further attacks on shipping in Hormuz. Third, whether Washington's stated pause holds through the early November vote.

On levels, $100 a barrel is the obvious resistance that has held during the conflict, with $97 the current reference. A confirmed break above $100 would signal the market is pricing sustained flow disruption rather than a contained event.

The pause itself is the swing factor. If it holds into November, crude likely stays range-bound near current levels. If it breaks early, the Pickaxe Mountain option returns to the foreground and the risk premium widens again.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is Pickaxe Mountain and why does it matter for oil markets?

Pickaxe Mountain, known in Iran as Kuh-e Kolang, is a tunnel complex built into a mountain a few miles from Natanz. Iran declared it a centrifuge assembly site in 2021, and analysts estimate it sits about 100 metres underground. It is widely described as the last significant nuclear-linked site in Iran to have escaped strikes, which is why any threat to hit it keeps a geopolitical risk premium in crude.

Why is gold falling when Middle East tensions are rising?

Gold has been weighed down rather than lifted because higher oil feeds inflation and Fed hike expectations. Rate repricing has dominated the safe-haven bid throughout the conflict. That pattern has held even as Iranian attacks on tankers increased and US crude stayed near $97 a barrel. Investors treating gold as a war hedge have been caught on the wrong side of the rates trade.

What would push US crude back above $100 a barrel?

The clearest trigger is further Iranian attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz. Traffic through the strait has already been severely disrupted, and a large share of the world's oil normally passes through it. Escalation there would tighten constrained flows beyond what IEA emergency stock releases can offset, which is the scenario that would break crude through the $100 level.

Bottom Line

Trump removed the nuclear and ground-troop options but kept the bombers, so crude's risk premium survives the pre-midterm pause.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. CFD trading carries high risk of capital loss.