Trump Says Iran Asked US to Halt Strikes, Bombing to Stop Shortly

Former President Donald Trump stated in a June 10, 2026, Fox News interview that the United States will shortly halt its military strikes on Iran. Trump claimed Iranian officials directly requested the cessation of bombing operations. This development signals a potential de-escalation following a sharp military escalation, triggering an immediate recalibration of risk premia across global equity and commodity markets. The announcement catalyzed a swift 1.8% rally in S&P 500 futures and a 3.4% drop in Brent crude futures during early electronic trading hours.

Context — why this matters now

Geopolitical risk premia had surged to their highest levels since the October 2023 Hamas attack on Israel, with the VIX index spiking to 38.2 before Trump's comments. The immediate catalyst was Iran's June 9 closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global oil transit. This action followed a series of U.S. airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, which themselves were retaliation for alleged Iranian proxy attacks on U.S. bases in Iraq. The current macro backdrop features elevated Treasury yields near 4.6% and a strong U.S. dollar index at 105.3, both supported by safe-haven flows. The direct U.S.-Iran communication channel reported by Trump represents a significant shift from previous administrations' approaches to Tehran.

Data — what the numbers show

Market reactions to the de-escalation signal were immediate and pronounced. Brent crude futures fell $3.24 to $92.16 per barrel, erasing half of the previous session's 6.8% surge. West Texas Intermediate crude dropped $2.87 to $88.42. S&P 500 futures rallied 82 points to 5,478, while Nasdaq 100 futures gained 1.9%. The U.S. dollar index (DXY) declined 0.6% to 104.7 as safe-haven flows reversed. Treasury yields fell 8 basis points across the curve, with the 10-year note at 4.52%. Gold prices retreated 1.4% to $2,318 per ounce after hitting $2,351 earlier in the session. The iShares MSCI Saudi Arabia ETF (KSA) gained 4.2% on reduced regional conflict risk.

Asset	Pre-Announcement	Post-Announcement	Change
Brent Crude	$95.40	$92.16	-3.4%
S&P 500 Futures	5,396	5,478	+1.5%
10-Year Yield	4.60%	4.52%	-8 bps
Gold Spot	$2,351	$2,318	-1.4%

Analysis — what it means for markets / sectors / tickers

The initial relief rally disproportionately benefits energy-sensitive sectors and emerging markets. Airlines (JETS ETF) and cruise operators (CCL, RCL) saw sharp rebounds of 4-6% on lower fuel cost projections. European automakers (VOW3.DE, BMW.DE) gained 3.5% on reduced fears of disrupted supply chains. Defense contractors (LMT, NOC) pulled back 2.8% on perceived reduced conflict duration. The rally's sustainability hinges on confirmation of the Strait of Hormuz reopening, as 21 million barrels of daily oil transit remain blocked. Energy analysts note that any resumed Iranian oil exports would add 1.5-2 million barrels daily to global supply. Hedge fund positioning data shows systematic funds were net short equities and long oil heading into the event, creating potential for a violent reversal squeeze. The limited Israeli involvement in this strike round reduces immediate escalation risks but doesn't eliminate regional tensions.

Outlook — what to watch next

Markets will focus on three immediate catalysts for confirmation of de-escalation. Satellite monitoring of tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz on June 11-12 will provide tangible evidence of reopening. The weekly EIA petroleum status report on June 12 will show any inventory drawdowns from the closure. OPEC+'s scheduled June 13 meeting may address production policy in light of potential renewed Iranian supply. Technical levels for Brent crude include critical support at $90.50, the 50-day moving average, and resistance at $95.40. The S&P 500 faces resistance at its 50-day moving average of 5,510. Continued U.S. military readiness in the region suggests the situation remains fluid, and any reversal of the ceasefire announcement would trigger rapid repricing of risk assets.

Frequently Asked Questions

How does this development affect oil prices long-term?

The long-term oil price impact depends on whether Iran returns to full oil export capacity. Before the strikes, Iran was producing 3.4 million barrels per day with exports of 1.5 million. Full sanctions relief could add 1.8-2.0 million barrels to global markets within six months, potentially creating structural downward pressure on prices. However, continued regional instability and security premiums would likely keep prices above $85 even with increased Iranian supply.

What does the US-Iran communication channel mean for diplomacy?

The reported direct communication represents a significant breakthrough in U.S.-Iran relations, which have been conducted through intermediaries since the 1979 revolution. While not indicating full normalization, it suggests both sides have operational channels to de-escalate military confrontations. This could pave the way for renewed nuclear negotiations, though substantial differences on uranium enrichment levels and sanctions relief remain unresolved.

How should investors position for ongoing Middle East volatility?

Institutional investors typically maintain exposure to energy infrastructure (ENB, EPD) and defense (RTX, LMT) as geopolitical hedges while avoiding overexposure to regional emerging markets. Gold and long-dated Treasuries traditionally serve as flight-to-quality assets during escalation periods. The current situation warrants flexible positioning rather than directional bets, given the high frequency of policy reversals.

Bottom Line

Markets priced a temporary de-escalation premium but await concrete confirmation of Strait of Hormuz reopening.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. CFD trading carries high risk of capital loss.