Trump Claims Iran Assures No Hormuz Strait Tolls, Oil Slides
1h ago|4 min readStandard
Fazen Markets Editorial Desk
Collective editorial team · methodology
strait-of-hormuzoil-prices
Fazen Markets Editorial Desk
Collective editorial team · methodology
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Former President Donald Trump stated on 24 June 2026 that Iran had provided assurances to the United States there will be no tolls, insurance costs, or any charges for ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz. The announcement, which triggered an immediate market reaction, came amid a period of heightened tensions over maritime security in the region. Global benchmark Brent crude futures fell 2.1% to $81.30 per barrel following the remarks, erasing a 3.8% weekly gain driven by concerns over potential supply disruptions. The Strait of Hormuz handles roughly 21 million barrels of oil daily, accounting for about 21% of global seaborne petroleum trade.
The Strait of Hormuz is a perennial flashpoint and a critical node for global energy security. In July 2019, Iran seized a British-flagged tanker, stena impero, escalating tensions and temporarily pushing oil prices higher. The most recent direct military confrontation occurred in January 2024, when U.S. forces responded to attacks on shipping by Houthi militants, a group backed by Iran.
Current macro conditions include a U.S. 10-year Treasury yield at 4.31% and the Federal Reserve holding rates steady, leaving markets sensitive to supply-side inflationary shocks. The global oil market has been balancing OPEC+ production cuts against non-OPEC supply growth and uncertain demand.
The catalyst appears to be direct, private communication between Iranian officials and the Trump administration. Public statements from Tehran regarding maritime policy have been inconsistent, ranging from threats of closure to calls for regional cooperation. The U.S. Navy's Fifth Fleet maintains a significant presence in the Persian Gulf, with carrier strike groups a regular feature.
Brent crude futures declined $1.74 to settle at $81.30 per barrel on 24 June. The 2.1% drop contrasted with the S&P 500 Energy Sector's year-to-date gain of 8.2%. Front-month West Texas Intermediate futures fell 1.9% to $77.85.
The Strait of Hormuz is 21 miles wide at its narrowest point, with navigable channels just 2 miles wide. Daily oil flow through the strait averages 21 million barrels, valued at approximately $1.7 billion at current prices. Qatar exports over 11 billion cubic feet per day of liquefied natural gas via the strait.
| Metric | Before Announcement (23 Jun Close) | After Announcement (24 Jun Close) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brent Crude ($/bbl) | 83.04 | 81.30 | -2.1% |
| USO ETF ($) | 73.50 | ESE 72.10 | -1.9% |
The United States Oil Fund LP (USO) saw trading volume spike to 35 million shares, 45% above its 30-day average. The broader maritime shipping sector, as tracked by the Dow Jones Transportation Average, showed muted reaction, inching up 0.3%.
The immediate market reaction suggests a portion of the geopolitical risk premium, estimated by some analysts at $5-$8 per barrel, was unwound. Primary beneficiaries include integrated oil majors with significant refining exposure, such as Exxon Mobil (XOM) and Chevron (CVX), which benefit from lower input costs for crude. Airlines, including Delta Air Lines (DAL) and United Airlines Holdings (UAL), also stand to gain from reduced fuel expense pressures.
A significant counter-argument is that the verbal assurance does not materially alter the on-the-ground military posture or the underlying regional tensions. Naval traffic advisories from the U.S. Maritime Administration regarding the Persian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz, and Gulf of Oman remain at a heightened level of risk.
Positioning data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission shows money managers had increased their net-long positions in WTI futures for three consecutive weeks prior to this event. The swift price drop likely triggered stop-loss orders and prompted profit-taking from speculative longs.
Markets will scrutinize any official confirmation or denial from the Iranian government, expected via state media statements. The next weekly U.S. Energy Information Administration petroleum status report, due 25 June, will provide inventory data to contextualize the price move.
Key technical levels for Brent crude include the 50-day moving average at $80.50 as immediate support and the 23 June high of $83.75 as resistance. A sustained break below $80.00 could signal a broader retracement of the quarter's gains.
If the U.S. Fifth Fleet publicly adjusts its force posture or alert status in the Persian Gulf, it would be a concrete signal of de-escalation. Conversely, any incident involving Iranian fast-attack craft near commercial shipping would instantly reverse the market's dovish interpretation.
Retail investors holding broad energy ETFs like the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE) or crude oil futures ETFs like United States Oil Fund (USO) experienced immediate downside from this development. The event underscores the high volatility inherent in energy commodities, where geopolitical headlines can trigger rapid 2-5% swings. A tempered geopolitical risk premium is generally negative for spot prices but can benefit refining margins, creating a mixed effect across the energy sector.
Iran has threatened to close the Strait multiple times, notably in 2011-2012 and 2018-2019 during periods of heightened sanctions. While previous threats created sustained price spikes and increased war risk insurance premiums for shippers, actual closures have not occurred in modern history. The 2019 tanker seizures caused a shorter-lived spike as markets assessed the limited probability of a full-scale, prolonged blockade disrupting all traffic.
During peak tensions, such as the 2019 tanker crisis, war risk insurance premiums for vessels transiting the Persian Gulf increased tenfold, adding hundreds of thousands of dollars to a single voyage. The Joint War Committee, which advises the marine insurance market, maintains a list of high-risk zones; its next meeting to review the Persian Gulf's status will be a key indicator for shipping companies' future cost structures.
A verbal assurance on Strait of Hormuz transit does not eliminate the structural geopolitical risk underpinning global oil prices.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. CFD trading carries high risk of capital loss.
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