Trump Comments Spark $2.57 WTI Jump, Signal Iran Deal Push
1h ago|4 min readStandard
Fazen Markets Editorial Desk
Collective editorial team · methodology
crude-oilirantrump
Fazen Markets Editorial Desk
Collective editorial team · methodology
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Former President Donald Trump stated Iran-Israel Tensions Trigger S&P Futures Drop, Geopolitical Risk Erupts">Israel would have "no choice" but to accept a deal with Iran during media remarks on June 7, 2026. Trump declared he "calls all the shots" in the relationship with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The explicit push for a US-Iran accord, following a phone call between Trump and Netanyahu, triggered a sharp rally in oil benchmarks. West Texas Intermediate crude oil opened $2.57 higher on the session, reaching $93.11 per barrel.
The comments represent a significant departure from the US posture during the 2024-2026 regional conflict. The last major geopolitical shock to oil prices driven by US-Iran tensions occurred in January 2020, when the assassination of Qasem Soleimani sent Brent crude up 3.1% to over $70. The current Middle East conflict has kept a persistent risk premium of $15-20 per barrel in oil prices since October 2024.
The immediate macro backdrop includes elevated global inflation and a Federal Reserve holding rates steady. Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields traded at 4.31% in the prior session, with equity indices showing sensitivity to energy costs.
The catalyst is the apparent conclusion of Trump's strategic patience with the prolonged Iran-Israel conflict. His remarks explicitly rejecting Netanyahu's influence and emphasizing a desire to conclude negotiations signal a top-down policy shift. This follows Iran's recent direct strikes on Israeli territory, which Trump stated did not alter his negotiating stance.
The price of WTI crude oil for July 2026 delivery settled at $93.11, a 2.84% gain from the prior session's close of $90.54. The $2.57 intraday move was the largest single-session gain in three weeks. Brent crude futures echoed the move, rising $2.41 to $97.83 per barrel.
The energy sector ETF, XLE, rose 1.8% in pre-market trading. Major integrated oil companies showed correlated strength. Chevron (CVX) shares were indicated 1.2% higher, while ExxonMobil (XOM) saw a 1.1% gain. This outperformed the S&P 500 index, which was flat in early indications.
The United States Oil Fund (USO), a popular crude oil ETF, saw a 2.7% rise. The rally extended to oilfield services. The SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Equipment & Services ETF (XES) climbed 2.1%. The move partially reversed a 6.5% decline in WTI over the preceding two weeks driven by ceasefire hopes.
The primary second-order effect is a recalibration of the Middle East risk premium. A durable de-escalation could remove $8-12 per barrel from crude prices over the next quarter. This directly benefits transportation and consumer discretionary sectors. Airlines like Delta (DAL) and United (UAL), which are heavily short crude, could see relief rallies. The Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund (UUP) may weaken on reduced safe-haven dollar demand.
Defense contractors face a clear headwind from reduced conflict escalation prospects. Lockheed Martin (LMT), Raytheon (RTX), and Northrop Grumman (NOC) derive significant revenue from Middle East allies. A sustained peace initiative could pressure forward order books. Israeli equities, tracked by the iShares MSCI Israel ETF (EIS), may face volatility from perceived shifting US support.
A counter-argument is that Netanyahu's government has repeatedly defied international pressure for ceasefires. Israel's stated red lines regarding Iran's nuclear program remain unchanged, creating a high risk of policy divergence and renewed conflict. Market positioning shows hedge funds had built a net long position in WTI futures equivalent to 240 million barrels, according to the latest CFTC data. The immediate flow is toward short-covering in energy equities and rotation into rate-sensitive sectors.
The next catalyst is the official US diplomatic response, expected from the State Department within 48 hours. The OPEC+ meeting on June 22 will now factor a potential Iran deal into its production quota decisions. The G7 summit communiqué on June 15 will be scrutinized for allied alignment with the US stance.
For WTI crude, key technical levels include the 50-day moving average at $91.50 as immediate support. A sustained break below $90 would signal the market is pricing in a high probability deal. Resistance sits at the April high of $95.80. The 10-year Treasury yield breaking below 4.25% would signal a broader flight to quality if diplomatic efforts fracture.
If the US submits a formal proposal to Iran by month-end, energy volatility (as measured by the OVX index) could decline from its current level of 32 to the mid-20s. Failure to produce a framework by the Republican National Convention in mid-July would likely see the risk premium return in full.
US retail gasoline prices, currently averaging $3.85 per gallon, are highly correlated to Brent crude. A $10 per barrel drop in oil could translate to a $0.25-$0.30 per gallon reduction at the pump within 4-6 weeks. This would directly impact consumer inflation expectations and real disposable income, benefiting broad retail sales.
The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) was finalized in July 2015. In the three months following its announcement, Brent crude fell approximately 25%, from $62 to $47 per barrel. However, the current global inventory buffer is 15% lower than in 2015, and OPEC spare capacity is diminished, which may mute the magnitude of any price decline.
Since 1990, major US diplomatic initiatives aimed at resolving Middle East conflicts have a documented success rate below 30% for achieving durable peace beyond two years. The 1993 Oslo Accords and the 2020 Abraham Accords are key examples. Markets typically price a 60-70% probability of initial agreement but a less than 40% probability of a decade-long durable outcome.
Trump's forceful pivot toward an Iran deal introduces a powerful deflationary impulse into global markets via lower oil.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. CFD trading carries high risk of capital loss.
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