Tesla Deliveries Expected to Surpass Estimates on European, China Demand
1h ago|4 min readStandard
Fazen Markets Editorial Desk
Collective editorial team · methodology
teslatsla
Fazen Markets Editorial Desk
Collective editorial team · methodology
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Morgan Stanley analysts project Tesla Inc. will report second-quarter vehicle deliveries that exceed the current Wall Street consensus estimate of approximately 437,000 units. The improved outlook, detailed in a research note distributed on June 29, 2026, is attributed to stronger-than-anticipated sales momentum in Europe and China. Tesla's stock price reflected the positive sentiment, trading at $379.71, a gain of 1.11% during the session. The stock reached an intraday high of $387.80, indicating a bullish response from investors ahead of the official delivery report.
Tesla's delivery figures are a primary indicator of the company's operational health and a key catalyst for its stock price. The last time Tesla significantly outperformed delivery expectations was in the fourth quarter of 2025, when it reported 485,000 vehicles against a forecast of 465,000, triggering a 7% single-day rally. The current quarter’s performance is being closely scrutinized amid a global auto market characterized by shifting consumer preferences and intense competition, particularly in the electric vehicle sector. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is at 4.31%, a level that continues to pressure valuations of growth-oriented companies like Tesla.
The catalyst for the revised optimism from Morgan Stanley is a combination of improved registration data from European countries and a rebound in weekly insurance registration data from China. These real-time data points suggest that demand headwinds that plagued Tesla in early 2026 have begun to abate. The analysis indicates that price stabilization and the introduction of new financing incentives have successfully stimulated orders in these critical international markets, which are essential for Tesla's growth trajectory outside North America.
Morgan Stanley's analysis suggests Tesla's Q2 2026 deliveries could land in the range of 440,000 to 445,000 vehicles. This would represent a sequential increase from the 422,405 vehicles delivered in the first quarter of 2026. The consensus estimate, which the report suggests is beatable, sits at 437,000 units. A delivery figure at the high end of the projected range would signify a quarterly growth rate of over 5%.
Tesla's stock performance underscores the significance of these delivery metrics. The share price of $379.71 places the company's market capitalization above $750 billion. The day's trading range was substantial, from a low of $368.60 to a high of $387.80, demonstrating high volatility and investor sensitivity to delivery news. This 1.11% gain outpaces the Nasdaq Composite's more modest movement on the same day, highlighting Tesla's high-beta nature. The delivery beat would also contrast with the performance of legacy automakers like Ford and General Motors, which have reported more muted EV sales growth in recent quarters.
| Metric | Q1 2026 Actual | Q2 2026 Consensus | Morgan Stanley Projection |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deliveries | 422,405 | ~437,000 | 440,000 - 445,000 |
A delivery beat of this magnitude would likely provide a near-term tailwind for Tesla's stock and could lift the broader electric vehicle ecosystem. Suppliers with significant exposure to Tesla, such as Panasonic (PCRFY) for batteries and Quanta Services (PWR) for charging infrastructure, could see positive sentiment. Conversely, legacy automakers accelerating their own EV transitions, like Ford (F) and Volkswagen (VWAGY), may face increased competitive pressure, potentially underperforming if Tesla demonstrates renewed demand strength.
A key risk to this optimistic outlook is the sustainability of demand beyond the current quarter, especially if macroeconomic conditions deteriorate and consumer spending on big-ticket items weakens. The delivery number, while important, does not reveal details on profitability, which could be impacted by any ongoing price cuts or incentives used to stimulate sales. Market positioning data indicates that hedge funds had increased short interest in Tesla heading into the quarter, suggesting a delivery beat could trigger a short squeeze, amplifying upward price movement. Flow analysis shows institutional buyers have been cautiously adding to long positions ahead of the report.
The primary near-term catalyst is Tesla's official announcement of Q2 production and delivery figures, expected during the first week of July. Following the delivery report, investor focus will immediately shift to the Q2 earnings call, scheduled for mid-to-late July, where details on margins, full-year delivery guidance, and updates on new models like the next-generation compact vehicle will be critical.
From a technical analysis perspective, a confirmed delivery beat could propel Tesla's stock toward testing resistance levels above $400. The $387.80 intraday high from June 29 will serve as an initial test. Conversely, a failure to exceed consensus could see the stock retreat toward support around its 50-day moving average, currently near $365. Market participants will also monitor broader indices like the S&P 500 for directional cues, as a risk-off environment could cap gains even with positive company-specific news. Updates on the development of Tesla's Full Self-Driving technology in key markets like China remain a longer-term catalyst to watch.
Tesla's delivery figures are a direct measure of its core business volume and execution. Consistently meeting or exceeding delivery estimates builds investor confidence in the company's growth narrative and operational efficiency, often leading to stock price appreciation. Missing estimates can raise concerns about demand or production issues, typically resulting in significant sell-offs. The stock's high volatility means these reactions are often magnified compared to more established automakers.
Production numbers reflect the total number of vehicles manufactured in a quarter, while delivery numbers count vehicles actually sold and handed over to customers. The difference between the two figures represents inventory change. If deliveries consistently outpace production, it indicates strong demand and drawing down of inventory. If production exceeds deliveries, it may signal a buildup of unsold vehicles, which can be a red flag for weakening demand or logistical challenges.
Tesla remains the volume leader in the global electric vehicle market, but its growth rate has slowed as the base of deliveries has expanded. Newer entrants like BYD in China and Rivian in the United States often post higher percentage growth rates from a much smaller base. However, in terms of absolute unit growth, Tesla's additions of hundreds of thousands of vehicles per year still far exceed most competitors, though the gap is narrowing as the overall EV market matures and fragments.
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