SpaceX IPO Looms as 46% of Americans Buy Stocks on FOMO
8h ago|4 min readStandard
Fazen Markets Editorial Desk
Collective editorial team · methodology
spacex-ipofomoretail-investing
Fazen Markets Editorial Desk
Collective editorial team · methodology
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A 2026 behavioral survey revealed nearly half of U.S. retail stock purchases are motivated by a fear of missing out on gains. This behavioral backdrop coincides with the anticipated initial public offering of SpaceX, a listing with a potential pre-IPO valuation exceeding $200 billion. The event presents a definitive stress test for how retail sentiment influences the price discovery of a landmark equity issuance.
The 46% FOMO-driven buying statistic represents the highest recorded level since the meme stock frenzy of early 2021. During that period, retail flow significantly amplified volatility in names like GameStop and AMC Entertainment. The current macro environment, with the S&P 500 trading near all-time highs and the 10-year Treasury yield at 4.2%, is fostering a potent mix of yield-seeking and performance anxiety among investors.
Unlike broad index ETFs, the SpaceX IPO is a concentrated, high-profile catalyst that directly triggers FOMO psychology. The offering is expected to be one of the largest in U.S. history by market capitalization. The catalyst chain involves intense media coverage, direct listings from company leadership, and parallel gains in related thematic sectors like aerospace and satellite connectivity.
The last comparable mega-IPO test of retail sentiment was the Rivian Automotive debut in November 2021. Rivian opened at $106.75 per share, a 29% premium to its IPO price, reaching a market cap over $100 billion before declining more than 90% over the subsequent two years. The scale and public familiarity of SpaceX, however, are orders of magnitude greater.
The survey data indicates 46% of American retail investors admit to buying a stock primarily due to FOMO. This figure has risen from 38% in 2024 and 31% in the post-2021 bear market. Among investors aged 18-34, the FOMO-driven purchase rate jumps to 58%. The average portfolio allocation to FOMO-initiated positions is 19%.
SpaceX's financials, as disclosed in pre-IPO filings, show $15.8 billion in revenue for fiscal 2025, a 45% year-over-year increase. Its Starlink segment now contributes 62% of total revenue. The company's implied pre-IPO valuation of $200-$210 billion compares to a peer-adjusted revenue multiple of approximately 13x, a significant premium to the traditional aerospace sector average of 2.5x.
Pre-IPO secondary market trading for SpaceX shares has already seen premiums of 15-20% above the latest funding round price. This contrasts with the broader IPO market, where 2026 year-to-date first-day pops average just 12%. Retail brokerage platforms report a 300% increase in search volume for "SpaceX stock" over the last quarter.
| Metric | SpaceX (Pre-IPO) | S&P 500 Aerospace Avg. |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth (YoY) | 45% | 7% |
| Implied P/S Ratio | ~13x | ~2.5x |
| Debt/EBITDA | 3.2x | 4.1x |
The primary second-order effect will be capital rotation out of speculative growth stocks and thematic ETFs into the SpaceX offering. Tickers like AST SpaceMobile (ASTS), Rocket Lab (RKLB), and Virgin Galactic (SPCE) could see significant outflows, with potential downside pressure of 5-15% in the week surrounding the IPO. Conversely, suppliers like Lockheed Martin (LMT) and Northrop Grumman (NOC) may see a sympathy boost of 2-5%.
A key risk is that excessive FOMO-driven buying at the IPO could create an unstable valuation floor, leading to severe volatility in subsequent quarters if execution milestones are missed. The counter-argument is that SpaceX's monopolistic position in heavy launch and a fully deployed Starlink constellation justify a premium, insulating it from short-term sentiment swings.
Positioning data from prime brokers indicates hedge funds are establishing paired trades: long SpaceX via pre-IPO arrangements while shorting the aforementioned smaller-cap aerospace peers. Retail flow, tracked by order imbalances on major platforms, is overwhelmingly geared toward buy-at-open market orders for the IPO itself.
The first major catalyst is the final pricing of the SpaceX IPO, expected in Q3 2026. The difference between the IPO price and the first traded price will be the initial gauge of FOMO intensity. The first lock-up expiration for employee and early investor shares, typically 180 days post-IPO, will test the sustainability of the initial retail bid.
Key technical levels to monitor include the IPO's opening price as immediate support. A break below this level on the first trading day would signal FOMO exhaustion. For the broader market, watch the ARK Space Exploration & Innovation ETF (ARKX) for signs of sector-wide momentum or divergence.
U.S. equity market performance post-listing will be critical. A strong uptrend in the S&P 500 could further fuel FOMO in SpaceX, while a broader correction could trigger amplified selling in this high-multiple name.
Frequent FOMO investing often leads to higher portfolio turnover, increased transaction costs, and a tendency to buy at peaks. Academic studies show portfolios heavily influenced by emotional buying underperform buy-and-hold strategies by an average of 3-5% annually over a decade. It can also increase concentration risk in volatile, trendy sectors.
The Rivian IPO in 2021 and the Coinbase direct listing in 2021 are key comparables. Rivian saw a first-day pop of 29% but lacked SpaceX's profitability path. Coinbase opened with a $99 billion valuation tied directly to crypto asset prices. SpaceX is unique in combining a foundational technology moat with a direct consumer service in Starlink, broadening its retail appeal beyond pure speculation.
Analysis of 50 major IPOs from 2010-2023 shows that issuers where retail order flow represented over 40% of the first-day volume had a median return of -22% from their first-day closing price over the following 12 months. In contrast, IPOs with less than 20% retail first-day volume had a median 12-month gain of 11%. High initial retail participation often precedes a longer consolidation phase.
The SpaceX listing will quantify the multi-trillion-dollar impact of emotional investing on modern price discovery.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. CFD trading carries high risk of capital loss.
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