Elevators to Space Could Rely on History's First Tool: Rope
1h ago|4 min readStandard
Fazen Markets Editorial Desk
Collective editorial team · methodology
ropespace-elevator
Fazen Markets Editorial Desk
Collective editorial team · methodology
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Rope, one of humanity's oldest technologies first developed over 40,000 years ago, is now central to a modern proposal for building elevators into outer space. This concept, championed by author Tim Queeney, could unlock a new era of orbital infrastructure by leveraging high-tech fibers with tensile strengths capable of supporting a 22,000-mile tether. The idea, discussed on Bloomberg's Odd Lots podcast, highlights the enduring market potential of a foundational invention. Advancements in materials science are turning this speculative vision into a tangible engineering challenge with significant financial implications for aerospace and construction sectors.
The renewed focus on rope's fundamental engineering principles coincides with a surge in private space investment, with companies like SpaceX and Blue Origin driving down launch costs. The global space economy is projected to exceed $1 trillion by 2040, creating demand for more efficient orbital access than traditional rocket launches provide. The concept of a space elevator, once relegated to science fiction, is being re-evaluated as a cost-effective solution for moving mass into space, with potential transport costs dropping to a fraction of current rocket-based prices. The key technological hurdle has always been the tensile strength required for the tether, a challenge modern synthetic fibers are now closer to solving.
Historical infrastructure projects demonstrate the transformative economic impact of reducing transport friction. The completion of the Suez Canal in 1869 immediately cut the journey from Europe to Asia by 4,300 miles, reshaping global trade flows. Similarly, a functioning space elevator could reduce the cost of placing a kilogram in orbit from the current $2,720 on a Falcon 9 to an estimated $200, fundamentally altering the economics of satellite deployment, space manufacturing, and deep-space exploration. This cost reduction would create new markets currently deemed uneconomical.
The viability of a space elevator tether depends on a material's specific strength, measured in GPa/(g/cm³). Traditional steel has a specific strength of approximately 0.17, while modern synthetic fibers like Dyneema® boast a specific strength of 3.5. The theoretical requirement for a space elevator tether is a specific strength of at least 48 GPa/(g/cm³), a target that newly developed materials are approaching. Carbon nanotubes represent a promising candidate with theoretical specific strengths exceeding 100, though mass production at the required lengths and purity remains a significant challenge.
| Material | Specific Strength (GPa/(g/cm³)) | Status for Space Tether |
|---|---|---|
| Steel | 0.17 | Inadequate |
| Kevlar® 49 | 2.5 | Inadequate |
| Dyneema® SK78 | 3.5 | Inadequate |
| Zylon® AS | 5.8 | Inadequate |
| Carbon Nanotubes (Theoretical) | >100 | Requires Manufacturing Breakthrough |
The global high-performance fiber market, which supplies these advanced materials, was valued at $16.2 billion in 2023 and is forecast to grow at a CAGR of 9.8% through 2030. This growth is driven by demand from aerospace, military, and medical sectors, providing a commercial foundation for continued R&D. A single geostationary space elevator tether would require approximately 200,000 metric tons of high-strength material, representing a massive potential market for producers that achieve the necessary technical specifications.
Successful development of a space elevator would directly benefit companies involved in advanced materials manufacturing. Firms like Teijin Limited, the producer of Zylon, and Honeywell, which manufactures Spectra® fiber (a competitor to Dyneema), are positioned to supply the foundational materials for early-stage R&D and prototype construction. The aerospace supply chain, including entities like Northrop Grumman and Airbus, would gain from new contracts for elevator car and station design. The most significant second-order effect would be the disruption of the launch services market, potentially devaluing assets tied to conventional rocket technology if elevator transport proves vastly cheaper.
The primary counter-argument to near-term viability remains the immense engineering and financial challenge. A full-scale space elevator would be the largest single structure ever built, requiring international cooperation and an estimated initial investment exceeding $20 billion. Risks include potential catastrophic failure of the tether, the creation of orbital debris, and geopolitical tensions over the placement and control of such a strategic asset. Proving the long-term durability of the tether material against atomic oxygen, radiation, and micrometeoroid impacts is a critical, unsolved problem. Investment is currently concentrated in speculative R&D within private aerospace firms and government agencies like NASA's Institute for Advanced Concepts, rather than public markets.
The next major catalyst for space elevator technology will be the achievement of new tensile strength records in carbon nanotube production. Watch for announcements from research institutions like MIT or Kyoto University regarding meter-long fibers with uniform properties, a necessary step towards kilometer-scale production. The 2026-2027 timeframe is critical for evaluating the progress of the Japan Space Elevator Association, which has been actively testing climber prototypes and aims for a demonstration mission.
Key technical levels to monitor include breaking strength benchmarks. A commercially viable fiber must sustain continuous tension of at least 50 gigapascals. Market participants should track patent filings from aerospace giants like Lockheed Martin and Boeing related to tether deployment systems and climber technology. Regulatory developments from the Federal Aviation Administration's Office of Commercial Space Transportation regarding safety standards for space infrastructure will also signal increasing institutional acceptance. The success of Starship's heavy-lift capabilities may paradoxically accelerate elevator research by providing a cost-effective platform for testing tether components in space.
The Obayashi Corporation, a major Japanese construction firm, has a published roadmap aiming to build a space elevator by 2050, with a projected cost of $90 billion. In the United States, LiftPort Group has conducted early-stage experiments with carbon nanotube tethers and robotic climbers. Much of the foundational research is conducted by the International Space Elevator Consortium, a non-profit organization that coordinates efforts between academia and industry. These efforts remain primarily in the conceptual and early prototyping phases.
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