Silver Breaks Below 63.00 as Trump Rejects Iran Hormuz Deal

Silver came under heavy selling pressure on 28 September 2026 after US President Donald Trump rejected Iran's proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and said he expected the US to resume bombing Iran after the midterms. The rejection pushed XAG/USD below the 63.00 support level that had held through prior sessions, leaving the 55.00 handle as the natural downside target on the daily chart. Sentiment improved somewhat during the US session as headlines pointed to potential US concessions.

Context — why the Strait of Hormuz headline moves silver

Trump's rejection of Iran's proposal was the catalyst that broke a support level the metal had defended through earlier sessions. The report frames the rejection as the trigger for the breakdown, not a gradual drift lower.

According to Axios, Trump reportedly offered Iran sanctions relief and access to frozen funds in exchange for progress on the nuclear programme, although the US President later denied those reports. That denial removed the first piece of positive newsflow from the session.

Trump did confirm that American and Iranian negotiators are holding talks through mediators. Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said he expected Tehran to receive a formal response to its Strait of Hormuz proposal today.

That distinction matters for how the market is pricing the metal. A confirmed negotiating channel keeps a diplomatic path open even after the public rejection, which is why the selling pressure did not extend unchecked into the close.

For traders tracking broader macro risk, the same dynamic is visible across commodities and dollar-sensitive assets, where headlines rather than data have driven the tape this week.

Data — what the silver chart shows after the breakdown

On the daily timeframe, silver broke below the key 63.00 support following Trump's rejection. The report identifies 55.00 as the natural target once that level gave way.

On the 4-hour chart, a minor downward trendline defines the bearish momentum. Sellers are expected to lean on that trendline on any pullback, with a defined risk above it, to keep pushing into new lows. Buyers need a break higher to extend a pullback into the 63.00 resistance.

On the 1-hour chart, the strong bearish momentum has waned for now. The report flags 61.00 as the level that would let buyers start positioning for a pullback into the 4-hour trendline.

Timeframe	Broken level	Next reference
Daily	63.00 support	55.00 target
4-hour	Downward trendline	New lows
1-hour	61.00 handle	4-hour trendline

The sequence runs in one direction: the daily break sets the target, the 4-hour trendline governs momentum, and the 1-hour level is the first gate buyers must clear to slow the move.

Analysis — what the breakdown means for metals positioning

The report ties silver's direction directly to the US-Iran file. A breakthrough could support silver, because expectations for aggressive Fed rate hikes would likely ease. A negative outcome would likely keep pressure on the precious metal.

That link runs through rates rather than through industrial demand. Silver sits in the same rate-sensitive bucket as other precious metals, so any shift in hike expectations transmits into the metal's price. The report does not quantify that sensitivity, and no figure should be assumed for it.

The counter-argument is visible in the session itself. Sentiment improved during the US session as headlines pointed to potential concessions, and the report notes the bearish momentum has waned on the 1-hour chart. A market that was purely pricing escalation would not have stabilised on unconfirmed reports.

The limitation is that the positive headlines were denied. Trump denied the sanctions-relief reports, so the improvement rested on a story the President publicly walked back. Traders holding short exposure from the 63.00 break retain the cleaner setup, while buyers need a confirmed break above 61.00 before the pullback case has structure.

Positioning follows the levels. Sellers want a retest of 63.00 as resistance to add with defined risk above it. Buyers want a break higher to extend into the downward trendline. For readers tracking how rate expectations feed into metals, the macro backdrop remains the transmission channel.

Outlook — what to watch next

The focus will remain on US-Iran developments. Araghchi said he expected Tehran to receive a formal response to its proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz today, which puts a defined near-term event on the calendar.

On the data side, the US Consumer Confidence report and US Job Openings data land today. Tomorrow brings the US ADP and the US PCE price index. Thursday has the US ISM Manufacturing PMI and the latest US Jobless Claims figures, with the US NFP report closing the week on Friday.

The levels that matter are unchanged from the chart work. On the downside, 55.00 is the target once 63.00 has failed. On the upside, 61.00 is the first gate, with 63.00 as resistance above it. The 4-hour downward trendline governs any pullback in between.

A confirmed breakthrough on the Iran file would support silver through the rate-expectations channel the report describes. A negative outcome keeps pressure on the metal, with the same downside levels in play.

Frequently Asked Questions

Why did silver break below 63.00?

Silver broke below the 63.00 support after Trump rejected Iran's proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and said he expected the US to resume bombing Iran after the midterms. That rejection was the catalyst the report identifies for the breakdown. Before it, the metal had held the level. Sentiment improved later in the US session as headlines pointed to potential US concessions, though Trump later denied reports of sanctions relief and access to frozen funds.

What price levels matter for silver now?

The report identifies 55.00 as the natural target on the daily chart once 63.00 broke. On the 4-hour chart, a minor downward trendline defines the bearish momentum and sellers are expected to lean on it. On the 1-hour chart, 61.00 is the level buyers must break above to position for a pullback into that 4-hour trendline. A retest of 63.00 would now act as resistance.

How do US-Iran talks affect silver prices?

The report ties the two directly. A breakthrough could support silver because expectations for aggressive Fed rate hikes would likely ease, which helps rate-sensitive precious metals. A negative outcome would likely keep pressure on the metal. That is why the focus stays on US-Iran developments even with a full US data calendar this week, including the PCE price index and the NFP report.

Bottom Line

Silver holds a bearish setup below 63.00 with 55.00 as the target, and US-Iran headlines decide whether that pressure eases.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. CFD trading carries high risk of capital loss.