Poll Shows 41% of Americans Doubt US Will Last Another 250 Years
15h ago|4 min readStandard
Fazen Markets Editorial Desk
Collective editorial team · methodology
civic-confidencegeopolitical-risk
Fazen Markets Editorial Desk
Collective editorial team · methodology
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A new poll shows a significant minority of Americans hold doubts about the long-term future of the United States. The Reuters/Ipsos poll, published on June 16, 2026, found that 41% of adults surveyed believe it is unlikely the country will exist in 250 years. Only 11% expressed high confidence in the nation's quarter-millennium longevity. The survey arrives just weeks before the United States marks its 250th anniversary, a milestone event.
The findings reflect a measurable erosion in long-term civic confidence, a sentiment metric with historical parallels to periods of social and political strain. A similar Gallup measure in 2019 found 32% of Americans were not proud of the country, a multi-decade high. The current macro backdrop features persistent Treasury volatility, with the 10-year yield oscillating near 4.3% amid debates over fiscal sustainability and geopolitical tensions. The triggering catalyst is the proximate Independence Day anniversary, focusing national discourse on foundational principles at a time of domestic polarization and external strategic competition.
Trust in government institutions, a related metric, has trended lower for decades. The last major decline in institutional trust occurred between 2001 and 2016, when Pew Research Center data shows the share of Americans trusting the federal government fell from 54% to 18%. This current poll expands the aperture from trust in government to belief in the nation-state's continued existence itself. Such sentiment shifts can influence long-term investment decisions and risk premia, as they touch on the foundational assumptions of political stability and contract enforcement.
The poll surveyed 4,000 U.S. adults between June 7-14, 2026. The key finding shows 41% find the United States' existence in 250 years unlikely. This contrasts with 28% of respondents who believe it is likely. Party affiliation reveals a sharp divide: 53% of Democrats express pessimism, compared to 33% of Republicans. The poll's margin of error is +/- 2 percentage points. A secondary data point shows only 22% of respondents are optimistic about the country's future over the next five years.
Historical comparison of civic confidence metrics:
| Pollster | Year | Metric | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Reuters/Ipsos | 2026 | Doubt US exists in 250 years | 41% |
| Gallup | 2019 | Not proud of US | 32% |
| Pew Research | 2016 | Trust in federal government | 18% |
This sentiment trend diverges from the resilience of core financial markets. The S&P 500 has gained 7% year-to-date, while VIX volatility remains near its long-term average of 19.5.
The most direct second-order effect is on the risk premium for ultra-long-duration U.S. Treasury bonds. A 10% increase in perceived long-term political risk could theoretically add 5-15 basis points to the 30-year Treasury yield over time. Sectors with multi-decade investment horizons, like renewable energy infrastructure (NEE) and utilities (XLU), face higher discount rates, potentially compressing valuations by 2-4%. Conversely, firms with global revenue diversification and hard asset holdings, such as major mining companies (RIO) and multinational conglomerates (HON), may see a relative valuation benefit as hedges against localized sovereign risk.
The primary counter-argument is that consumer and business investment behavior remains largely disconnected from such abstract, long-term sentiment. Daily economic activity is driven by immediate factors like employment and interest rates. However, sustained erosion in civic confidence can eventually manifest in capital flight, reduced foreign direct investment, and higher sovereign credit default swap spreads. Current positioning data shows institutional investors are modestly increasing allocations to non-U.S. developed market equities (EFA) and gold (GLD) as portfolio diversifiers, a flow that could accelerate if this sentiment trend hardens.
The next specific catalyst is the July 4, 2026, anniversary itself, with associated speeches and commentary that may attempt to counter or amplify these sentiments. The first presidential debate of the 2028 election cycle, expected in late 2027, will serve as a key test for narratives around national unity and future trajectory. Market participants should monitor the ICE BofA MOVE Index for shifts in Treasury volatility and the performance of the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY). A sustained break below the DXY's 200-week moving average, currently near 102.50, could signal fading long-term confidence in the dollar's hegemony. The 30-year Treasury yield breaching 4.75% would indicate selling pressure on the long end of the curve.
Retail investors should ensure portfolio construction accounts for geopolitical volatility. This does not require drastic changes but reinforces the importance of diversification across asset classes and geographies. A standard 60/40 stock-bond portfolio heavily weighted to U.S. assets may benefit from a 5-15% allocation to international equities (VXUS) and tangible assets like commodities. Historical analysis shows that during periods of rising domestic uncertainty, globally diversified portfolios experienced lower drawdowns.
Quantitative sentiment data from those eras is scarce, but qualitative historical accounts suggest profound divisions. The key difference is the current absence of an immediate, existential military threat like the Confederate secession or nuclear standoff with the USSR. Today's doubts appear more chronic and internally focused, relating to political dysfunction and social cohesion, rather than acute external conflict. This makes the sentiment potentially more insidious and harder to rally against, as there is no clear unifying adversary.
While no fund directly shorts "civic confidence," several instruments serve as proxies. Sovereign credit default swaps (CDS) on U.S. debt are the purest hedge, though largely inaccessible to retail investors. Exchange-traded funds like the Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bearish Fund (UDN) track a weaker dollar, while gold ETFs (GLD) and funds holding Swiss Franc assets (FXF) are traditional safe havens during periods of declining confidence in reserve currencies. The volatility of these instruments often increases during political crises.
The poll quantifies a fracture in long-term national optimism that, if persistent, could recalibrate risk premia for dollar-denominated assets.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. CFD trading carries high risk of capital loss.
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