Oregon Group Promotes Anthony Milewski to Lead Critical Minerals Research
0h ago|4 min readStandard
Fazen Markets Editorial Desk
Collective editorial team · methodology
anthony-milewskioregon-group
Fazen Markets Editorial Desk
Collective editorial team · methodology
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The Oregon Group elevated Anthony Milewski to the role of Lead Market Voice for Critical Minerals on May 25, 2026, according to reporting by investing.com. This move places the former Mercenary Geologist newsletter writer and Sprott U.S. Holdings executive at the forefront of the firm's research and commentary on metals essential for the energy transition. The promotion reflects the growing institutional demand for specialized analysis on supply chains for lithium, nickel, cobalt, and rare earth elements. Milewski will report directly to the firm's senior partners and will be the primary author of its flagship critical minerals reports.
Institutional interest in the critical minerals sector has accelerated since the U.S. Department of Energy's 2022 designation of lithium as a critical material under the Defense Production Act. That action triggered a wave of federal loan guarantees and grants exceeding $15 billion for domestic battery material projects. The global market for energy transition metals is projected to reach $400 billion annually by 2030, up from approximately $170 billion in 2023, according to BloombergNEF estimates.
The current macro backdrop features volatile pricing for key inputs. Lithium carbonate spot prices in China have fallen over 80% from their November 2022 peak above 600,000 yuan per tonne, trading near 100,000 yuan in May 2026. Nickel prices on the London Metal Exchange have declined more than 50% from their 2022 highs. This price collapse has strained producer margins but has lowered input costs for electric vehicle manufacturers.
Oregon Group's decision is a direct response to this volatility and the need for clarity. Investors require granular analysis that separates project-specific risks from systemic sector trends. Milewski's mandate is to provide that clarity, focusing on geopolitical supply constraints, technological disruption in extraction, and evolving environmental regulations.
Investment flows into the critical minerals sector remain significant despite price corrections. The Global X Lithium & Battery Tech ETF (LIT) holds over $1.2 billion in assets. The Sprott Lithium Miners ETF (LITP), launched in 2022, manages approximately $180 million. These funds represent mainstream institutional access points to the theme.
Direct comparisons highlight the sector's recent underperformance versus broader markets. Over the past 12 months, the iShares Global Clean Energy ETF (ICLN) is down 12%. The S&P Global Broad Market Index (SPGI) is up 18% over the same period. This divergence underscores the unique challenges facing resource developers outside of general equity momentum.
Key price levels for benchmark commodities illustrate the current stress. The table below shows the stark decline from recent peaks:
| Commodity | Peak Price (Date) | Current Price (May 2026) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lithium Carbonate (China) | 605,000 CNY/t (Nov 2022) | ~105,000 CNY/t | -83% |
| LME Nickel Cash | $100,000/t (Mar 2022) | $18,500/t | -82% |
| Cobalt (99.8%) | $40/lb (Apr 2022) | $12/lb | -70% |
Exploration and development spending tells a different story. Junior mining companies on the TSX Venture Exchange raised over $2.1 billion for lithium projects in 2025, a 15% increase from 2024 levels. This capital commitment signals long-term conviction beyond short-term price gyrations.
The elevation of a dedicated critical minerals analyst will likely increase the visibility of second-tier producers and developers. Companies like Piedmont Lithium (PLL), Lithium Americas (LAC), and Sigma Lithium (SGML) could see enhanced institutional coverage and trading liquidity. Firms with advanced project pipelines in geopolitically stable jurisdictions, such as Argentina's lithium triangle or Canadian nickel basins, stand to benefit most from refined research.
A key risk to this optimistic view is technological disruption. Sodium-ion battery commercialization, advancing rapidly in China, could reduce lithium demand growth by an estimated 15% by 2030. CATL plans to mass-produce sodium-ion batteries for vehicles in 2026. This substitution threat remains a primary counter-argument to unbridled bullishness on traditional lithium-ion supply chains.
Positioning data shows a divergence between generalist and specialist investors. Generalist funds have been net sellers of mining equities for three consecutive quarters, according to Bank of America global fund manager surveys. Specialist resource funds and sovereign wealth funds, particularly from the Middle East and East Asia, have been accumulating stakes in depressed assets. This flow suggests a belief that current prices undervalue long-term strategic necessity.
The immediate catalyst is the release of the U.S. Critical Minerals List update, expected from the Department of Interior by the end of Q3 2026. Additions or deletions from the list directly affect eligibility for federal funding under the Inflation Reduction Act. The next major price signal will come from Chinese lithium carbonate contract negotiations for Q3 delivery, concluding in late June 2026.
Technical levels for the Global X Lithium ETF (LIT) provide a key sentiment gauge. A sustained break above its 200-day moving average, currently at $58.50, would signal a potential end to the bear trend. Conversely, a failure to hold the $52 support level from May 2025 could trigger another wave of selling.
Investors should monitor quarterly earnings from Albemarle (ALB) and SQM (SQM) in late July 2026. Guidance on capital expenditure plans and long-term contract pricing will offer crucial insights into industry expectations for demand recovery. Any shift in language regarding project delays or accelerations will move related equities.
Anthony Milewski has over 15 years of direct experience in mining finance and geology. Prior to The Oregon Group, he served as a Managing Director at Sprott U.S. Holdings, focusing on uranium and critical minerals investments. He also authored the widely-read Mercenary Geologist newsletter, which provided early analysis on lithium brine projects in South America. His career includes roles as a mining equity analyst and as a consultant to mining companies on project financing.
Retail investors gain access to higher-quality, institutional-grade research that was previously behind paywalls or limited to client notes. The Oregon Group publishes condensed versions of its research publicly, which can help retail investors understand complex supply chain dynamics. This information assists in differentiating between well-managed projects with low costs and speculative ventures. It does not, however, change the inherent volatility and high risk of investing in individual junior mining stocks.
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