Oil Prices Could Hit $135 on Stockpile Crisis, Dicker Warns

Energy markets expert Dan Dicker warned on Bloomberg This Weekend that global oil markets are severely underestimating ongoing supply disruptions, which have drawn down stockpiles to precarious levels. Dicker stated that if the draw on inventories continues, crude prices could surge from current levels to as high as $135 per barrel. The analysis was published on June 21, 2026, as market data showed the energy sector attracting significant attention. The tokenized energy asset NEAR, for instance, traded at $2.18, reflecting a 24-hour gain of 3.00% amid a trading volume of $264.93 million as of 14:22 UTC today.

Context — why this matters now

Global oil inventories act as a critical buffer against supply shocks. When these buffers are thin, even minor disruptions can lead to significant price volatility. The current situation echoes the inventory draws seen in the first half of 2022, when Brent crude rallied above $120 per barrel following Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the post-pandemic demand recovery.

The present macro backdrop includes persistent geopolitical tensions in key oil-producing regions and sustained output discipline from the OPEC+ alliance. These factors have created a tight physical market where supply struggles to keep pace with strong global demand. The trigger for the current warning is the compounding effect of multiple, simultaneous supply outages.

Disruptions in the Middle East, combined with unexpected maintenance and production issues in non-OPEC countries, have removed millions of barrels per day from the market. This has forced a consistent draw on commercial and strategic petroleum reserves that were already depleted from previous interventions. The cumulative loss of supply over recent months has pushed the market into a deficit.

Data — what the numbers show

The core of Dicker's argument rests on the magnitude of the inventory decline. While specific global stockpile figures are proprietary, the directional signal is clear from related market data. The price of Brent crude has increased approximately 18% year-to-date, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's more modest gains.

The market's forward curve structure, known as backwardation, remains steep, indicating traders expect immediate supplies to be tighter than future supplies. This pricing dynamic encourages the drawdown of existing inventories. The strength in energy-related digital assets like NEAR, which carries a market cap of $2.83 billion, further underscores the capital flowing into the sector in anticipation of higher prices.

The vulnerability is heightened by the fact that strategic petroleum reserves in major consuming nations like the United States are at multi-decade lows following coordinated releases intended to cap prices in 2022. This reduces governments' ability to intervene effectively if a new crisis erupts. The following comparison illustrates the scale of potential price moves based on historical precedent.

Event	Inventory Drawdown	Price Impact
2022 Geopolitical Crisis	Significant	Brent +40% to over $120
Current Warning (Potential)	Severe	Projected move to $135

Analysis — what it means for markets / sectors / tickers

A surge to $135 crude would have profound second-order effects across global markets. The most direct beneficiaries would be major integrated oil companies like ExxonMobil (XOM) and Chevron (CVX), whose upstream earnings are highly leveraged to the oil price. Oilfield services firms such as Halliburton (HAL) and Schlumberger (SLB) would also see increased drilling activity and pricing power.

Conversely, transportation sectors would face severe margin compression. Airlines like Delta (DAL) and United (UAL) are highly sensitive to jet fuel costs, and shipping companies would see profitability erode. Emerging market economies that are net oil importers would confront wider current account deficits and inflationary pressures, potentially strengthening the US dollar. The key risk to this outlook is a sharp, unexpected slowdown in global economic growth, which would destroy demand and replenish inventories even without an increase in supply. Current market positioning shows speculative net-long positions in crude futures are elevated, indicating many traders are already betting on higher prices.

Outlook — what to watch next

Traders should monitor the weekly U.S. Energy Information Administration petroleum status report, released every Wednesday, for the most timely data on inventory levels. A continuation of draws exceeding 3 million barrels per week would validate the supply deficit thesis.

The next OPEC+ monitoring committee meeting in early July will be critical for gauging the cartel's willingness to unwind voluntary production cuts. Any signal of increased output could temporarily cap prices. Key technical levels to watch for Brent crude include major resistance near the $95 per barrel level, a breach of which could open a path toward $110. Support is found at the 100-day moving average, currently near $82. A breakdown below this level would suggest the bullish inventory narrative is faltering.

Frequently Asked Questions

How do low oil inventories lead to higher prices?

Low inventories reduce the market's safety net. When stored oil is scarce, buyers must compete more aggressively for immediate, physical barrels to meet their needs. This spot market competition drives up the benchmark price. It also forces refiners and other end-users to pay higher premiums for prompt delivery, a situation reflected in a stronger backwardated futures curve.

What is the difference between commercial and strategic petroleum reserves?

Commercial stockpiles are oil held by private companies like refiners and traders to manage their daily operations. Strategic Petroleum Reserves are state-controlled emergency stockpiles, like the U.S. SPR, intended for use during major supply disruptions. Drawdowns from the SPR can temporarily suppress prices but are not a sustainable solution for a structural supply deficit.

Which energy stocks are most sensitive to oil price changes?

Exploration and production companies, or E&Ps, have the highest sensitivity or beta to oil prices because their revenue is directly tied to the commodity price. Integrated majors like BP and Shell have less volatility due to their downstream refining and marketing operations, which can act as a hedge. Oil services and drilling companies see a lagged effect, as higher prices must be sustained to trigger new investment in drilling projects.

Bottom Line

Global oil markets face a supply deficit that could propel prices dramatically higher if inventories continue to fall.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. CFD trading carries high risk of capital loss.