Nike Q1 Earnings: NKE Sits Near 2014 Lows Ahead of Hill's Test

# Nike Q1 Earnings: NKE Sits Near 2014 Lows Ahead of Hill's Test

Nike (NKE) reports fiscal first-quarter results after the close today, with the stock near its lowest level since February 2014. NKE traded at $35.87, up 0.09% on the day inside a $35.45–$36.23 range as of 19:21 UTC, according to live market data. The stock is down 43.25% year to date and roughly 79.8% below its November 2021 all-time high of $179.10. Results are scheduled for approximately 4:15 p.m. ET, followed by a 5 p.m. ET conference call.

Context — Why Nike's Earnings Matter More Than the Beat

Analysts expect earnings per share of $0.44 for the fiscal first quarter of 2027, down from $0.49 a year earlier. Revenue is forecast at approximately $11.33–$11.35 billion, compared with $11.72 billion in the prior-year period. That implies an earnings decline of roughly 10% and a revenue decline of roughly 3%.

The comparable that matters is last quarter's reported EPS of $0.72, which included a $0.52 tariff-recovery benefit. Stripping that out, underlying profitability was materially weaker than the headline number suggested — a fact that makes tonight's clean print more important than the headline beat or miss.

The catalyst chain runs through CEO Elliott Hill, who took the top job in October 2024 after John Donahoe's exit. Hill has prioritized athletes and performance products while rebuilding retail partnerships that eroded under the prior leadership's direct-sales push. Nearly two years in, the market wants proof those priorities are translating into measurable improvement.

Last quarter, wholesale revenue rose 4% while Nike Direct revenue fell 7%. That split frames tonight's core question: are products shipped to retailers selling through to consumers quickly enough to keep inventories healthy and protect full-price sales? A beat alone will not answer it. Investors also want a timetable for sales stabilization, evidence China is improving, and proof Nike can generate demand without leaning on discounts.

Data — What the Numbers Show

The scale of Nike's drawdown shows up across every moving average. The 100-week moving average sits at $60.78, well above the current price. The 200-day moving average is at $48.89 — roughly 36% above $35.87. The 100-day moving average is at $41.33, and NKE has stayed below it since February 25, 2026.

On shorter timeframes, the 200-hour moving average at $37.40 is the key resistance for any recovery attempt, about 3.2% above the current price. NKE has remained below that level since early August, when the average stood near $42.70. The 100-hour moving average at $36.11 is the closest technical reference heading into the print, and the stock is trading just above it.

Metric	Level	Distance from $35.87
100-hour MA	$36.11	+0.7%
200-hour MA	$37.40	+4.3%
100-day MA	$41.33	+15.2%
200-day MA	$48.89	+36.3%

Brand-level figures for fiscal 2026 sharpen the picture. Nike Brand revenue was $45.2 billion, including Jordan. Jordan revenue was $7.03 billion, down 3%. Converse revenue was approximately $1.2 billion, down 31%. The recovery depends on restoring demand for Air Force 1, Dunk, Air Jordan and Chuck Taylor while building momentum in performance footwear.

Analysis — What It Means for Markets and the Sector

Nike's problem is not unique to its income statement — it is a demand-velocity problem that spills into its retail partners. If wholesale shipments are rising while sell-through stalls, the inventory risk shifts to those partners and eventually back to Nike in the form of markdowns. That is why the wholesale-versus-Direct split matters more than the headline revenue number.

The athlete strategy is Hill's most visible answer. Tonight's report coincides with the global launch of the Nike Caitlin 1, WNBA player Caitlin Clark's first signature shoe, retailing at $140 with initial colorways including Caitlin Blue and Warning Code Yellow, plus an accompanying apparel collection. The quarter being reported ended in August, so the September China launch and October global launch fall into the following quarter.

Competition is intensifying on the same athlete front. Kylian Mbappé ended his long Nike relationship in September to join On, in a deal that includes cash and equity, with On planning soccer boots in 2027. That hands an expanding competitor a major name in a market Nike has long owned.

The counter-argument is that a $35.87 entry point already prices in a lot of bad news. A 10% or 20% gain is "only" $3.60 or $7.20 away — meaningful, but still not enough to reclaim the 200-day MA at $48.89. The warning is that the stock is down this low for a reason. Positioning-wise, sellers remain in control until buyers can string together victories above the short-term averages.

Outlook — What to Watch Next

The immediate trigger is the 4:15 p.m. ET release and the 5 p.m. ET call. Watch whether Hill provides a convincing timetable for sales stabilization, China improvement, and stronger underlying margins.

On the tape, the first line in the sand is the 100-hour MA at $36.11. Holding above it gives buyers a modest foothold. A move above and sustained close over the 200-hour MA at $37.40 — roughly 3.2% higher — would be a more meaningful step toward short-term control. From there, the 100-day MA at $41.33 comes into focus, with the 200-day MA at $48.89 as the major target. Other levels cited are $45 and $47.25. A drop back below $36.11 weakens the buyers' case.

The Caitlin 1 launch is the next product catalyst to track, though its revenue contribution lands in the following quarter rather than tonight's print.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does Nike's Q1 FY2027 earnings report mean for retail investors?

It is a sentiment test more than a numbers test. Analysts expect $0.44 EPS on roughly $11.33–$11.35 billion revenue, both down year over year. The bigger signal is whether CEO Elliott Hill gives a credible timeline for stabilizing sales and improving China. NKE at $35.87 sits near 2014 lows, so the reaction will hinge on guidance and management commentary, not just the headline beat or miss.

Why is Nike stock trading near its lowest level since 2014?

NKE is down 43.25% year to date and about 79.8% below its November 2021 high of $179.10. The stock has stayed below its 100-day moving average since February 25, 2026, and below its 200-hour moving average since early August. Weak Direct revenue, a 31% decline in Converse, and a 3% drop in Jordan revenue all weigh on the recovery case.

What happens next for Nike after earnings?

Traders will watch the 100-hour moving average at $36.11 first, then the 200-hour at $37.40. A sustained break above $37.40 puts the 100-day moving average at $41.33 in play, with $48.89 as the longer-term target. A move back below $36.11 would weaken the buyers' position. The Caitlin 1 launch and China demand trends are the next fundamental catalysts.

Bottom Line

Nike's earnings may give buyers their shot, but only a credible stabilization plan and a hold above $36.11 will determine whether they take it.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. CFD trading carries high risk of capital loss.