Nebius Crashes 20% as NBIZ Inverse ETF Jumps 39%

The Tradr 2X Short NBIS Daily ETF (BATS: NBIZ) emerged as Thursday's top-performing fund, gaining roughly 39% as Nebius Group (NASDAQ: NBIS) shares plunged nearly 20% on disappointing forward guidance. The sell-off landed alongside fresh turbulence across U.S. AI infrastructure names after NVIDIA Corp. (NASDAQ: NVDA) CEO Jensen Huang resigned on Thursday, the company announced. Nebius traded at $128.64 as of 23:40 UTC today, down 4.00% on the session within a range of $118.81 to $132.69. Nvidia changed hands at $166.19, down 1.60%, having traded between $148.80 and $167.14.

Context — why the Nebius guidance cut matters now

The revenue beat was not the problem. Nebius reported third-quarter revenue of $980.8 million, up 571% year over year and above analyst estimates of roughly $907.5 million. The forward numbers were the problem: management lowered 2026 revenue guidance to $3 billion-$3.2 billion, trimming the top end from a previous $3.4 billion forecast.

The cause was timing, not demand. Delays in bringing some third-party data center capacity online pushed that capacity into the first half of 2027. Capital expenditure guidance for 2026 rose to approximately $27 billion from $20 billion-$25 billion previously, with spending projected at $40 billion-$45 billion in 2027.

That combination — slower revenue recognition against faster cash burn — is what repriced the equity. Investors holding neocloud exposure are being asked to fund a larger buildout over a longer runway before the corresponding revenue arrives.

Huang's resignation compounded the move. The leadership shock weighed particularly heavily on neocloud companies with close Nvidia ties, and Nvidia's strategic and financial relationship with that ecosystem has made the transition a live concern for anyone underwriting the sustainability of AI infrastructure investment.

Nebius also expects 2027 revenue of $12 billion-$13 billion and targets pre-tax break-even by year-end. Management said customers are already seeking computing capacity for 2028. None of that offset Thursday's guidance trim.

Data — what the numbers show

The inverse fund's move tracks the underlying decline, not the round number. NBIZ seeks twice the inverse of NBIS's daily performance, so a roughly 20% drop in Nebius maps to an approximately 39% gain for the ETF. The gap from a clean 40% reflects actual daily performance and fund expenses.

Metric	Nebius (NBIS)	NBIZ ETF
Thursday move	~-20%	~+39%
Structure	Single stock	2X daily inverse
2026 revenue guide	$3.0B-$3.2B (cut from $3.4B top end)	n/a
2026 capex guide	~$27B (up from $20B-$25B)	n/a

Before the revision, the top end of 2026 revenue guidance sat at $3.4 billion. After it, the top end sits at $3.2 billion, while the 2026 capex ceiling rose from $25 billion to roughly $27 billion. Revenue expectations moved down as spending expectations moved up — the same quarter, opposite directions.

Nebius's $980.8 million quarter was a 571% year-over-year increase, which sets the scale of the growth trajectory the 2026 guide now has to extend. The 2027 revenue target of $12 billion-$13 billion implies a step up from the revised 2026 range, and the $40 billion-$45 billion 2027 capex projection implies the spending step up is larger still.

Peer pressure showed in the same session. CoreWeave (NASDAQ: CRWV) fell sharply and IREN Ltd. (NASDAQ: IREN) also faced pressure, both neocloud names tied closely to Nvidia.

Analysis — what it means for markets and tickers

The read-through runs through the neocloud complex first. CoreWeave and IREN sold off alongside Nebius because the same question applies to each: if third-party data center capacity slips, when does contracted compute convert to recognized revenue? Huang's exit sharpens that question because Nvidia's strategic and financial backing has been part of how the market has priced these companies' access to supply and capital.

The counter-argument deserves a hearing. Nebius beat on revenue by a wide margin, guided 2027 revenue to $12 billion-$13 billion, and targets pre-tax break-even by year-end. Delayed capacity is a schedule problem, not a demand problem, and management says customers are already asking for 2028 capacity. A trader short the stock on a guidance trim is not the same as an investor short the AI buildout.

That distinction is exactly where the flow sits. NBIZ is a single-day instrument held by traders expressing a view on Nebius's next session, not on its 2027 revenue line. Its 39% gain is a leveraged reaction to one earnings print, and the fund's daily rebalancing means its return over multiple sessions can diverge significantly from twice the inverse of Nebius's cumulative move.

The structural risk for anyone holding NBIZ beyond Thursday is compounding. A volatile but ultimately flat Nebius share price erodes a daily-rebalanced inverse fund, because the math resets every session. The 39% is real, but it is a one-day number.

Outlook — what to watch next

The immediate catalysts are Nebius's own disclosures and Nvidia's leadership transition. The report gives no date for either, so the watch items are the company's next update on third-party data center capacity — now expected in the first half of 2027 — and any Nvidia statement on its permanent CEO appointment and the strategic relationships that sit under it.

On levels, the live market data frames the near-term range. Nebius traded between $118.81 and $132.69 on Thursday and closed the snapshot at $128.64, down 4.00%. Nvidia's range was $148.80 to $167.14, with the stock at $166.19, down 1.60%. Holding above the session low matters for the neocloud complex broadly; losing it would extend the same capacity-delay narrative to CoreWeave and IREN.

For NBIZ holders, the condition to monitor is realized volatility in Nebius rather than direction alone. Choppy sideways trading is the scenario that erodes daily-rebalanced inverse exposure even when the bearish thesis stays intact.

Frequently Asked Questions

Why did Nebius stock fall nearly 20% on Thursday?

Nebius beat on third-quarter revenue at $980.8 million, up 571% year over year, but cut the top end of its 2026 revenue guidance to $3.2 billion from $3.4 billion and raised 2026 capital expenditure guidance to roughly $27 billion from $20 billion-$25 billion. Delays in third-party data center capacity, now expected in the first half of 2027, drove both revisions. Jensen Huang's resignation from Nvidia added sector-wide pressure.

What does the NBIZ ETF actually track?

NBIZ seeks to deliver twice the inverse of Nebius's daily share price performance. It is a leveraged single-stock fund, not a long-term short position. Because it rebalances every session, its return over multiple days can diverge significantly from twice the inverse of Nebius's cumulative move. Thursday's roughly 39% gain reflected a nearly 20% decline in Nebius plus fund expenses.

How did other AI infrastructure stocks react?

CoreWeave fell sharply and IREN Ltd. also faced pressure as the neocloud complex sold off together. The common thread is close ties to Nvidia, whose CEO Jensen Huang resigned on Thursday. Nvidia itself traded at $166.19, down 1.60% as of 23:40 UTC today, within a range of $148.80 to $167.14, a far smaller move than the declines in the smaller neocloud names.

Bottom Line

Nebius beat on revenue but cut 2026 guidance and raised capex, handing inverse fund NBIZ a roughly 39% session.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. CFD trading carries high risk of capital loss.