MiniMax IPO Plans Challenge DeepSeek in China's AI Race
1h ago|4 min readStandard
Fazen Markets Editorial Desk
Collective editorial team · methodology
minimaxdeepseekai-ipo
Fazen Markets Editorial Desk
Collective editorial team · methodology
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MiniMax Group Inc., a high-growth artificial intelligence startup, has initiated preparations for an initial public offering in China. A regulatory filing confirmed the move on May 30, 2026, positioning the company to directly compete with domestic rivals such as DeepSeek for capital and market leadership. The IPO plan arrives as the AI hardware sector faces pressure, with semiconductor bellwether Intel trading down 5.82% to $114.68 as of 05:40 UTC today, near the day's low of $113.54.
China's technology sector has seen a concentrated wave of AI-related fundraising, though domestic IPOs for pure-play AI firms remain rare. The last major comparable was the 2025 listing of a large-scale language model infrastructure provider, which raised approximately $1.2 billion but traded sideways post-debut. The current macro backdrop features elevated interest rates globally, which typically pressures the valuation multiples of high-growth, pre-profitability technology companies.
A key catalyst for the filing is the intensifying competition for scale within China's AI landscape. MiniMax, known for its multimodal AI models, requires vast capital for compute resources and talent to keep pace. A successful local listing would provide a Renminbi-denominated war chest, reducing reliance on volatile private funding rounds. The move also signals regulatory comfort from Beijing in allowing a strategically important AI firm to tap public markets domestically rather than pursue an offshore listing.
The regulatory filing provides a concrete step but lacks financial details typical of a full prospectus. Comparable pre-IPO fundraising rounds for Chinese AI companies have ranged from $300 million to over $500 million. Intel's sharp intraday decline of 5.82% to $114.68 reflects broader sector unease, contrasting with the S&P 500's year-to-date gain of approximately 1.5% during the same period.
| Metric | MiniMax IPO Context | Market Comparison |
|---|---|---|
| IPO Stage | Preliminary filing submitted | Full prospectus pending |
| Key Domestic Rival | DeepSeek | Multiple private competitors |
| Sector Sentiment Gauge | N/A | INTC -5.82%, near $113.54 low |
Recent private market valuations for similar-stage Chinese AI firms have hovered between $8 billion and $15 billion. The success of this offering will be measured against the performance of recent tech listings on China's STAR Market, where the average first-day pop for tech firms has moderated to around 25% in 2025 from over 50% in prior years. Investor appetite will be tested by the capital burn rate, which for frontier AI labs can exceed $100 million per month on compute costs alone.
The direct second-order effect is increased competitive pressure on privately-held rivals like DeepSeek, potentially forcing them to accelerate their own IPO timelines or seek larger private rounds at possibly diluted valuations. Publicly-listed Chinese tech giants with major AI divisions, such as Baidu and Alibaba, may face investor scrutiny comparing their AI unit efficiency against these focused startups. Semiconductor suppliers with exposure to Chinese AI compute, including Nvidia (subject to export controls) and domestic chipmakers, will watch for signals of expanding procurement budgets.
A key risk is the valuation disconnect between private exuberance and public market discipline, especially if the IPO prices amid continued weakness in global chip stocks like Intel. The counter-argument is that China's domestic capital markets are deep and may insulate a flagship AI listing from global tech sector volatility, treating it as a strategic asset. Positioning data suggests hedge funds have been net short the broader semiconductor sector, with notable put option volume on the SMH semiconductor ETF, while long-only funds may view a successful MiniMax IPO as a catalyst for selective re-entry into Asian tech.
Investors can track related themes through products like the KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF and the iShares Semiconductor ETF. For deeper analysis on AI sector valuations, visit our technology research hub at https://fazen.markets/en.
The immediate catalyst is the release of MiniMax's full IPO prospectus, which will contain audited financials and detailed use-of-proceeds, expected within the next 60-90 days. Following that, the pricing date and final valuation will be the primary market focus. Concurrently, watch for any response filing or funding announcement from DeepSeek, which could emerge as a competing narrative.
Key levels to monitor include the $110 support level for Intel, a break below which could signal deeper correction in AI-adjacent hardware stocks. In China, the benchmark CSI 300 index's performance around the 3,800 level will indicate broader risk appetite for domestic equity listings. The tone from China's securities regulators in upcoming press briefings regarding technology listings will be critical for sector sentiment.
U.S. investors cannot directly purchase shares in a domestic Chinese A-share IPO like MiniMax's planned listing. The main channel for exposure is through American Depository Receipts (ADRs) of large Chinese tech conglomerates with AI stakes or through broad-based China ETFs. The event is a barometer for risk appetite toward capital-intensive technology in China's market. A successful deal could improve sentiment for China-exposed tech funds, while a stumble may reinforce concerns about profitability timelines in the global AI sector.
The closest historical precedent is the 2023 IPO of a U.S.-based AI infrastructure firm, which debuted at a $25 billion valuation but now trades below its offer price. Key differences are the geographic market and state support. Chinese AI IPOs often carry an implicit strategic national interest, potentially attracting different investor bases like state-backed funds. The valuation metrics will likely emphasize government contracts and domestic market reach over purely global commercial traction, setting a distinct benchmark.
The primary risks are immense and sustained operating losses funded by public capital. Leading AI labs spend billions on Nvidia GPUs and specialized talent, with revenue streams often years behind. Public markets demand quarterly accountability, which can conflict with the long-term, high-risk research roadmap. There is also model obsolescence risk; a competitor's technical breakthrough can rapidly devalue an existing model portfolio. Investors will scrutinize the gross margin profile and the capital expenditure plan more than near-term revenue growth.
MiniMax's IPO filing is a strategic bid for permanent capital in China's high-stakes AI race, testing public market tolerance for pre-profitability tech ambition.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. CFD trading carries high risk of capital loss.
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