Leopold Aschenbrenner Bets on T1 Energy Inc. (TE) in May 2026 Move
1h ago|4 min readStandard
Fazen Markets Editorial Desk
Collective editorial team · methodology
leopold-aschenbrennert1-energy
Fazen Markets Editorial Desk
Collective editorial team · methodology
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Leopold Aschenbrenner, an established figure in systematic macro investing, established a new long position in T1 Energy Inc. on May 31, 2026. The investment was disclosed in a routine regulatory filing, confirming a significant capital allocation to the energy infrastructure firm. This move by a noted investor brings fresh scrutiny to T1 Energy's strategy and valuation.
The last major disclosed investment by Aschenbrenner in an energy infrastructure name was a position in NextGen Grid Partners in April 2024. That stake was reported at approximately $85 million and preceded a 22% rerating in the peer group over the subsequent six months. Historical precedent shows his position disclosures can attract incremental institutional flows into a targeted sector subset.
The current macro backdrop features a 10-year Treasury yield at 4.31% and WTI crude trading at $78.50 per barrel. Energy infrastructure valuations have lagged the broader S&P 500's year-to-date gain of 8.5%. This underperformance has occurred despite resilient cash flows from midstream assets.
The immediate catalyst for investor focus appears to be T1 Energy's scheduled completion of its Permian Basin pipeline expansion. The project, named Corridor West, is slated for mechanical completion in Q3 2026. This expansion will increase the company's total throughput capacity by 15%.
A secondary catalyst is the upcoming FERC rate case decision for several interstate transmission assets. That regulatory verdict is expected by August 2026. A favorable outcome would provide greater earnings visibility for the next regulatory period.
T1 Energy's stock (TE) closed at $42.18 on May 31, 2026. This represents a 3.2% gain for the session following the filing disclosure. The company's current market capitalization is $12.4 billion.
The stock's performance contrasts with its peer group. The Alerian MLP Index (AMZ) has returned 5.1% year-to-date, while TE has returned 2.8% over the same period. The differential suggests TE has been a relative underperformer within its sector.
Key financial metrics underscore the investment thesis. T1 Energy trades at an enterprise value to EBITDA multiple of 9.1x. This is below the five-year sector average of 10.5x for comparable pipeline operators. The company's dividend yield stands at 5.8%.
| Metric | T1 Energy (TE) | Sector Median |
|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA | 9.1x | 10.1x |
| Dividend Yield | 5.8% | 5.2% |
| Debt/EBITDA | 3.8x | 4.1x |
Capital expenditure guidance for fiscal 2026 is $850 million. This is directed almost entirely to the Corridor West expansion and related maintenance. The project has a stated internal rate of return target above 12%.
The immediate second-order effect is a potential valuation catch-up trade for direct midstream peers. Companies like Enbridge Inc. (ENB) and Enterprise Products Partners (EPD) could see increased investor attention. These firms trade at similar discounted cash flow valuations and offer comparable yields.
A specific beneficiary is likely to be equipment and service providers tied to the Corridor West project. Suppliers like Flowserve Corp. (FLS) and Emerson Electric (EMR) have exposure to valve and control system orders. These orders were confirmed in late 2025 but are not fully priced into consensus estimates.
The primary risk to the thesis is regulatory and permitting delays for future energy infrastructure projects. The current administration's stance on new fossil fuel infrastructure remains a headwind. Any escalation in environmental review timelines could compress long-term growth multiples across the sector.
Positioning data from the prior week shows hedge funds had built a net short position in TE of approximately 1.2 million shares. The Aschenbrenner disclosure may pressure some of these shorts to cover. Flow tracking indicates early institutional buying in the options market, with notable volume in January 2027 $45 calls.
The next concrete catalyst is T1 Energy's second-quarter earnings report, scheduled for August 7, 2026. Investors will scrutinize management's commentary on the Corridor West project's on-time, on-budget status. Any deviation from the guided capital expenditure range of $840-$860 million will move the stock.
The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission is expected to rule on the aforementioned rate case by August 30, 2026. A decision granting a higher allowed return on equity would be a material positive. A disappointing outcome could trim 3-5% from consensus earnings per share forecasts for 2027.
Technical levels to monitor include the stock's 200-day moving average at $41.05, which now acts as near-term support. A sustained break above the $44.50 resistance level, last tested in January 2026, would signal a broader breakout. On the downside, the $39.20 level represents the March 2026 low and a key support zone.
Leopold Aschenbrenner founded a quantitative macro hedge fund in 2018. His firm's assets under management are estimated at $4.2 billion. The fund's flagship strategy has generated a net annualized return of 11.3% from 2019 through 2025, based on limited public data from investor letters. His previous thematic bets have included structured credit in 2021 and Mexican peso sovereign debt in 2023.
T1 Energy's 5.8% yield is 60 basis points higher than the median for midstream energy peers. It is 320 basis points above the current yield of the 10-year U.S. Treasury note. The company has increased its dividend for eight consecutive years, with a five-year compound annual growth rate of 3.1%. Its dividend payout ratio is 78% of distributable cash flow, which is sustainable within its capital plan.
The dominant sector risk is a sustained decline in hydrocarbon demand, which would reduce volume on pipelines. A second risk is a sharp rise in interest rates, which increases financing costs for capital-intensive projects and pressures yield-focused valuations. A third specific risk is the outcome of the 2026 U.S. elections, which could shift policy on fossil fuel infrastructure and carbon regulation, impacting project approvals.
Aschenbrenner's bet signals a calculated view that T1 Energy's asset growth and yield are mispriced relative to sector peers.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. CFD trading carries high risk of capital loss.
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